1. ERGEG first views on GTE+ national production, storage and demand scenarios
Dr. Benoît ESNAULT (CRE) and Dr. Stefanie NEVELING (BNetzA)
GTE+ 2nd Workshop on the European Ten Year Network Development Statement, Brussels, 29 April, 2009

2. ERGEG recommendations on the 10-year network development plan
ERGEG recommendations on 10-year network development plan
ERGEG proposals focus on elements of the drafting process and expected content
Consider the EU gas dynamics and long term energy strategy
Based on 3rd Package requirements and GTE+ work
Top down: developing a European perspective
Broad vision of the European gas dynamics, energy strategy and risks
Map of gas flows and international bottlenecks: main cross-border issues, including priority EU projects & main congestion points to be eliminated
Bottom up: use national data to build a European picture
Assessment of national investment plans
Collection of national data on supply & demand
Coherence between national, regional and EU wide investment plans

3. ERGEG approach to scenarios development
Building a reliable picture of gas supply and demand evolution requires addressing:
Economic context
Impact of energy policies and climate change mitigation on gas consumption
Gas prices dynamics
Specific gas variables
Peak demand evolution
Development of storage and LNG facilities
Technical and economical feasibility of expansion projects
Scenarios developed for the electricity sector
Develop several scenarios taking into account security of supply simulations

4. First assessment of GTE+ ´s National Production Scenarios
TSO‘s were asked to provide data on production
Not all TSOs/Countries responded on this, e.g german TSOs
Partly only linear extrapolation, no forecast, e.g. Austria
 Full participation of all TSOs/Countries important
First assessment of some major production countries
NL: Decline in production of 22% until 2018 compared to 2009
UK: Decline in production of 49% until 2018 compared to 2009
These numbers are roughly consistent with the numbers of IEA‘s World Energy Outlook 2008
ERGEG proposal: further analysis by European Regulators could be useful

5. First assessment of GTE+ ´s Storage Scenarios
TSOs were asked to provide data on storage capacity
Not all TSOs/Countries responded on this, e.g Germany
Some provided incomplete data, e.g Italy (only for 2009)
In many countries storage capacity remains constant e.g. Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Sweden
In some countries storage capacity declines e.g Netherlands (due to declining production)
In some countries storage capacity increases e.g France, UK, Spain
In sum there is growing storage capacity of + 23% (until 2018 compared to 2009)
Data seem to be reasonable but further assessment could be usefull

6. First assessement on GTE+ ´s Demand scenarios
TSO‘s were asked to provide data on demand
Not all TSOs/Countries responded on this, e.g. Romania, Portugal
The majority of the TSOs/countries expect an increase in demand/yearly consumption (until 2018 compared to 2009), e.g.
- Austria: + 29%
- France: + 13%
- UK: + 15%
- Italy: + 21%
One country expects a decline in demand (Germany - 4%)
Data difficult to assess because of unclear (probably differing) underlying assumptions, e.g. economic growth, oil price development; increase in CCGT.

7. Preliminary conclusions
ERGEG welcomes GTE+´s work on NDS as a suitable first approach
But: Complete data necessary by every TSO/country
But: Consensus on key elements (underlying assumptions), otherwise non-coherent forecasted development in the different Member States
Further coherent (top down) approach by TSO´s/GTE+ desirable
Further ERGEG assessment on scenarios and data planned: Study on network simulation

8. Thank you for your attention! www.energy-regulators.eu
Mark your diary for the World Forum on Energy Regulation IV
October 18-21, 2009
Athens, Greece