1. Using ICT to Support Rural Livelihoods – Early Warning and Country Preparedness

2. InfoDev Workshop Session III
Overview
Longstanding limited Bank engagement in weather sector
Global cost trend in weather disasters increases interest
Rural impact of weather disasters
Mitigation options
Missing link is accurate forecasting
Accuracy matters more than improvements in delivery
ICT is at the core of getting the right answer
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

3. History of Bank engagement in weather forecasting
Agrometeorology components
(East Timor, Ecuador, Bangladesh
Water Res Mgmt components
(Aral Sea, Afghanistan, Mexico)
Flood Mgmt components
(Turkey, Dominican Republic, Poland)
El Nino and seasonal forecasting
(Malawi, Peru, Caribbean)
Climate change components
(LAC)
One stand-alone project – led Bank to study of value of weather forecasting – (Russia)
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

4. Meanwhile disasters struck
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

5. Not only disasters…. Bad weather.
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

6. Forecasting mitigates loss -
Floods
Floods - One hour of notice is estimated to reduce flood losses by 10 percent
Damage reduction due to forecast improvements can range from a few percentage points to as much as 35 percent of average annual flood damages.
Severe weather and drought
A good forecast can indicate need to re-configure irrigation, fill or empty the reservoirs, harvest or don’t harvest yet. Plant, or don’t plant yet. Spray, or don’t spray yet. Use the tractor, or don’t use it. Protect seedlings from frost and hail….
Yet getting the right local forecast is difficult and may be neglected
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

7. Forecasting Cannot be Taken for Granted -
United Kingdom
How far in advance did you find out that severe weather was expected?
The important point to emphasize here is that Met Services must become much more responsive to their customers/clients/end-users requirements
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

8. Forecasting Cannot be Taken for Granted -
Armenia
How far in advance did you find out that severe weather was expected?
The important point to emphasize here is that Met Services must become much more responsive to their customers/clients/end-users requirements
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

9. Forecasting Cannot be Taken for Granted -
Georgia
How far in advance did you find out that severe weather was expected?
The important point to emphasize here is that Met Services must become much more responsive to their customers/clients/end-users requirements
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

10. Forecasting Cannot be Taken for Granted -
Albania
How far in advance did you find out that severe weather was expected?
The important point to emphasize here is that Met Services must become much more responsive to their customers/clients/end-users requirements
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

11. InfoDev Workshop Session III
Affected clients…. 1
Aviation 2
Agriculture 3
Disaster Management 4
Water Res. Planning & Management 5
Environmental Protection 6
Mass Media 7
Construction 8
Energy Generation and Supply 9
Marine Transportation 10
Tourism 12
Fisheries
Land Transportation 13
Food Production 14
Forestry 15
Insurance
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

12. Early warning skill depends on ICT
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

13. Early warning skill depends on ICT – Computers and modeling
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

14. Early warning skill depends on ICT - Telecoms
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

15. InfoDev Workshop Session III
Early warning skill depends on ICT – Satellites and sounders
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

16. The forecasting process depends on ICT
Telecoms that bring weather data to the national center
Telecoms for the national center to send data to WMO
Telecoms for the national center to receive global forecasts from WMO
Computer to develop high resolution national forecasts of weather and water
Downlink of satellite data to refine the forecasts
Transmission of forecasts to users
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

17. Upgrade costs fall within a wide range
Moldova – We are advocating for $3 mln
Russian Federation - $132 mln not enough
Monitoring cost depends on area of country
Upgrade cost depends on sharing with neighbors
Operations cost depends on regional/global role
Modernization cost is contentious – on existing budgets the agencies can afford little – but existing budgets lead to unsustainable operations and MUST be reconsidered. Role of Bank.
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

18. InfoDev Workshop Session III
5 June 2007
InfoDev Workshop Session III

19. Thank you for your attention