1. Safeway Northern California Luncheon Meat Promotional Best Practices
Nielsen Perishables Group
December 2015

2. Table of Contents Objectives and Approach 3
Understanding Promotional Recommendations 4
Parameters
Safeway NorCal Luncheon Meat Overview 6
Key Findings: Promotional Best Practices 12
Promotional Best Practices: Products 13
Promotional Best Practices: Pricing and Placement 21
Appendix
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group

3. Objectives and Approach
The overall objective of this project is to analyze past luncheon meat promotional activity at Safeway Northern California, evaluate the results and provide Columbus with a toolkit of recommendations for future promotional strategies. Specific objectives include identifying the optimum price discount and item mix for achieving maximum category volume movement and dollar sales lift.
Performance data was compiled by item for the luncheon meat category. This includes weekly item volume and dollars, and promotional activity. Ad data was pulled utilizing MarketTrack data, then matched to Nielsen Perishables Group performance data to examine the effects of various types of promotion activities on volume and dollar sales.
In the Nielsen Perishables Group data, a week is flagged as a promotion if it meets one of the qualifying criteria:
Discount of $0.09 or greater (primary algorithm flag)
Discount of 5% or greater (secondary algorithm flag)
Discount not sustained longer than eight weeks (if discount is sustained for more than eight observed weeks, it is considered a permanent price change)
Baseline is a rolling (moving) average (forward and backward); it's not a simple average of N weeks
METHODOLOGY
NPG PROMO DATA
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group

4. Understanding Pricing Recommendations
A promotional recommendation is based on past promotional activity that demonstrates superior sales results.
The goal of a promotional recommendation is to provide a guide, or a set of parameters, based on sales data from previous activities, which can be applied to increase the sales of luncheon meat at Safeway Northern California.
A combination of performance measures are used to define a promotional recommendation - primarily category and item volume and dollar sales impact.
The recommendations and summary sections will provide an overview of the promotional recommendations based on how the promotions applied to the retailer in this study.
The promotional details of this analysis provide an in-depth view of the impact that each promotion had on volume and dollar sales. This impact includes the luncheon meat category and individual luncheon meat items in the promotion as applicable.
HOW TO READ
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group

5. Parameters GEOGRAPHY TIMEFRAME NUMBER OF PROMOTIONS ANALYZED CATEGORY
Albertsons, Safeway (Sacramento, San Francisco, San Jose)
Latest 104 weeks ending 07/18/15
NUMBER OF PROMOTIONS ANALYZED
88 unique ad placements/ISPRs were analyzed
375 category item promotions
CATEGORY
NUMBER OF WEEKS PROMOTED
Luncheon Meats- including Peg, Well, 4X8/Wallet Packs, Deli Tubs and Specialty
Luncheon Meat was on promotion 88 weeks out of 104
Promotions ran 85% of the weeks
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group

6. PROMOTIONAL BEST PRACTICES
SAFEWAY NORTHERN CALIFORNIA LUNCHEON MEAT OVERVIEW

7. Total Luncheon Meats Sales in Safeway NorCal: $58M
Luncheon meat increased in price at Safeway NorCal which led to dollar increases and volume declines
Deli tubs is the largest sub-category, but specialty and 4x6/wallet packs grew the fastest in dollars and volume
Total Luncheon Meat:
Total Luncheon Meats Sales in Safeway NorCal: $58M
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group Fresh Facts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

8. Turkey had the highest share while salami and pepperoni sales grew the most
Price increases were highest for turkey and chicken
Most of turkey is from deli tubs (71%), then wallet packs, then well and peg – growing in dollars per $MM ACV in all except Well – declining in volume for all except deli tubs – price is up across all – especially deli tubs
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group Fresh Facts® 52 Weeks Ending 8/29/15

9. Oscar Mayer had the highest dollar sales in both Safeway NorCal and its ROM
Private Label dollars per $MM ACV declined in Safeway NorCal, but increased significantly in its ROM
Top Ten Luncheon Meat Brands Dollars per $MM ACV Sales by Brand and Change
+10.0%
+5.3%
True Story Foods has 0.2% dollar share of luncheon meat in Safeway NorCal and is not available in its ROM
+3.3%
+4.0%
True story is new this year, so growth numbers are not available – it is all turkey products – split pretty evenly across its 3 items – mostly oven roasted turkey
Applegate share is not available in luncheon meat at Safeway norcal
-2.9%
+16.8.%
-4.2%
+2.1%
+6.5%
+0.3%
+23.2%
+17.1%
-6.3%
-26.3%
-23.5%
-1.9%
-8.0%
-19.5%
+7.9%
-44.9%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group Fresh Facts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

10. A large number of promotions took place in early summer
There were also spikes in late October and early December
AD COUNT
% of Volume Sold on Promotion
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

11. Setting the Stage: Luncheon Meat Promotions
Overall health luncheon meat was discounted at a greater rate, but impacts on the category were higher for conventional
Average Category Dollar Impact
Average Discount
9.2%
-0.6%
9.0%
9.2%
-23.7%
Health*
Conventional
Average Category Volume Impact
Health*
Conventional
Health*
Conventional
17.2%
-25.7%
-23.5%
16.0%
17.3%
Health as defined by Columbus coding
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

12. Key Findings and Insights
PRODUCTS
Promote one item per week to see the largest impact for that item, but keep in mind that multi-item promotions are more impactful on the category – balance these concepts depending on the situation and desired outcome
Include a a variety of brands and sub-categories in promotions – especially valuable are promotions including Oscar Mayer and/or 4x6/wallet packs
Be sure to include better for you and health claims in promotions to obtain the maximum impact on the luncheon meat category
Maintain discounts around the average (24%) and below 41% to have the best impact for both individual items and the category
Run joint ISPR and feature promotions when possible to get the largest impact for the category
Suggest more buy one get one promotions and inside page/run of press ads to build more data to see if these types of ads and placements are the best for the category
RECOMMENDATIONS
Overall, the more items on promotion the better for the total luncheon meat category, but individual items had larger impacts when fewer products were on promotion
Promotions featuring multiple brands and sub-categories were most impactful
When promoted together, health claims and conventional luncheon meat had the highest impacts, but conventional items benefited more from being promoted on their own
PRICING & PLACEMENT
Category impacts were similar between 20 and 40% discounts, with an average discount of 24%
Dollar impact on the luncheon meat category started to level off when discounts were higher than 40%
Overall item impacts were highest on ISPR-only weeks, and category impacts were highest on weeks that combined ISPR and Feature promotions - particularly weeks where family ads and loyalty card ads were included in the feature
Some promotions / feature placements were very impactful, but had low sample size – including buy one get one promotions and inside page/ run of press ad features

13. PROMOTIONAL BEST PRACTICES
PRODUCTS

14. When one item was on promo, the impact was highest
The more items on promotion, the bigger the impact to the total luncheon meat category
However, individual items are impacted most when only one item is on promotion
When one item was on promo, the impact was highest
Number of Items Promotional Performance
-27%
-18%
-21%
-29%
-27%
-32%
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ads Counts: 1 (3)*, 2-10 (34), (29), (11), (8)*, 42+ (3)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

15. Promotions featuring multiple brands were most impactful
Oscar Mayer drove dollar impact when promoted alone and with other brands
Top 5 Volume Impact Brand Combinations, with more than one instance
Brand Count Promotional Performance
Brand Combinations
$ Impact
Vol Impact
Carl Buddig, Oscar Mayer 9%
13%
Carl Buddig, Hillshire Farm, Oscar Mayer 7%
10%
Galileo, Hillshire Farm, Oscar Mayer 5%
Oscar Mayer 4%
Foster Farms, Hormel, Oscar Mayer 6%
Land O’Frost, Bar-S Food, Carving Board, and Gallo are top ten brands in processed lunch meat, but weren’t in any top promotions.
Oscar Mayer promoted alone experienced the highest item impacts (87% dollars, 153% volume). While the combinations Carl Buddig, Hillshire Farms, Oscar Mayer (56% Dollars, 85% volume) and Carl Buddig, Oscar Mayer (54% dollars, 85% volume) experienced the second highest item impacts *
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
Oscar Mayer accounts for 36% of dollar sales within total luncheon meat
-19%
-17%
-20%
-21%
-25%
-28%
-25%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ads Counts (brands): 1 (16), 2 (11), 3 (16), 4 (14), 5 (13), 6 (10), 7+ (8)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

16. Promotions featuring multiple sub-categories were most impactful
Promotions including 4x6/Wallet Packs with other sub-categories had the highest category impacts
Sub-Category Count Promotional Performance
Top Volume Impact Sub-Category Combinations, with more than five instances
Sub-Category Combinations
$ Impact
Vol Impact
Peg, 4x6 / Wallet Pack, Deli Tubs, Specialty
13%
26%
Well, 4x6 / Wallet Pack Deli Tubs Specialty
12%
21%
4x6 / Wallet Pack, Deli Tubs 8%
11%
4x6 / Wallet Pack, Deli Tubs, Specialty 6%
4x6 / Wallet Pack, Specialty 5%
Deli Tubs 4%
Specialty 0% 1%
Deli Tubs, when promoted by itself, had the highest dollar/volume item impacts (122% dollars, 212% volume). Promotions with deli tubs/4x6 Wallet packs had higher item impacts *
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-18%
-19%
-23%
-26%
-33%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ads Counts (sub-categories): 1 (20), 2 (22), 3 (23), 4 (19), 5 (4)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

17. Promoting multiple proteins at a larger discount drove larger impacts across the category
Chicken breast, ham and turkey were the most frequently promoted protein combinations
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ads Counts (proteins): 1 (7)*, 2 (11), 3 (13), 4 (7)*, 5 (14), 6 (13), 7 (11), 8 (5)*, 9 (6)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

18. Average item impacts were higher on conventional-only weeks
Category impacts were highest when conventional and natural were promoted during the same week
There was only one instance in the data when organic luncheon meat was on promotion across a large percentage of stores
Conventional, Natural, Organic Promotional Performance
Average item impacts were higher on conventional-only weeks
Category doing better – because more items being promoted – s item impact – conventional includes fewer items vs. conventional and natural – conventional higher on it’s own because not sharing
Avg item impact greater with fewer items - so for overall category growth, combine, for individual growth – keep them separate
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-22%
-22%
-13%*
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15
Ads Counts: Conventional (54), Conventional and Natural (33), Organic (1)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

19. Category impact was highest when low sodium, reduced fat and no claim products were on promotion
Item impacts were higher when low sodium products were included in the promotion with reduced fat and no claim products
Reduce Fat and Sodium Claim Promotional Performance
Average item impacts were highest for no claim, but infrequent with only 8 ads
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-22%
-23%
-21%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15
Ads Counts: Reduced Fat and No Claim (55), Low Sodium, Reduced Fat and No Claim (22), No Claim (8), Low Sodium, Reduced Fat, No Trans Fat and No Claim (2), Reduced Fat (1)
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

20. Similar to other BFY claims, promotions with both healthy and conventional were best for the category
Average item impacts were higher when just conventional was on promotion across the health claims
Conventional and No Nitrates/ Nitrites Added Promotional Performance
Conventional and Health Promotional Performance
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-22%
-24%
Conventional and No Artificial Ingredients/ Flavors Promotional Performance
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-21%
-24%
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-21%
-24%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ads Counts: Conventional (60), Health*(defined by Columbus) (28); Conventional (60), Health*(defined by Columbus) (28); Conventional (62), Conventional and No Artificial Ingredients/Flavors (26)
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

21. PROMOTIONAL BEST PRACTICES
PRICING AND PLACEMENT

22. Average Luncheon Meat Discount
Steep discounts are not always necessary – category impacts were similar between 21-40% discounts
Item dollar impact started to decline after 40% discount, while volume increased
Discount Range Promotional Performance
Average Luncheon Meat Discount
24%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Discount Range: 1-10% (3)*, 11-20% (50), 21-30% (17), 31-40% (13), 41-50% (5)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

23. Weeks with ISPR, family ads and loyalty card promotions had larger impacts than ISPR-only weeks
While rare, weeks that included buy one get one promotions had the largest impact on category
Promotion Type Promotional Performance
Within all other, ads with buy and get promotions and coupons (e-coupons and in-store) drove impacts
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-20%
-23%
-19%
-29%
-20%
-31%
-14%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Promotion Type: ISPR (49), ISPR, Family Ad, Loyalty Card (18), All Other Combination (11), ISPR, E-Coupon, In-Store Coupon, Family Ad, Loyalty Card (3)*, ISPR, Buy/Get, Family Ad, Retailer Point, Mix/Match, Loyalty Card (3)*, ISPR, BOGO, Family Ad, Loyalty Card (2)*, ISPR, Family Ad (2)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

24. Must Buy 3 promotions had the highest category dollar and volume impacts, with lower discounts than Must Buy 2
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-17%
-19%
-20%
-47%
-38%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Promotion: $5 Fridays (10), 5x Gas rewards/Purchase 4 (24), Mix/match (12), Must Buy 2 (4), Must Buy 3 (16)
*Promotions may have run overlapping in weeks

25. Feature and ISPR promotions had higher category impacts, but ISPR-only weeks had the highest item impacts
Feature-only promotions’ performance fell in the middle, but occurred on only 1 week
Ad Method Promotional Performance
-24%
-13%
-20%
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
Luncheon Meat Impact
Item
Impact
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ad Method: Feature + ISPR (39), Feature Only (1)*, ISPR Only (48)
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

26. Similar to what we saw in in products, more ads types increased category impacts, but not item impacts
Discounts were higher when more ads types were run
Number of Ads Types Run Per Week Promotional Performance
-20%
-24%
-27%
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
Luncheon Meat Impact
Item
Impact
The majority of promotions were run as an ISPR, or an ISPR with a sub-feature ad. When the sub-feature was run, the items had higher impacts, but ISPRs alone had the highest impact on the category.
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Number of Ad Ran: One (49), Two (36), Three (3)*
Ad Types – Feature, Sub-Feature, Liner or ISPR
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

27. ISPR had higher item impacts than the most common ad location – inside page - but category impacts were lower
Overall, inside page and run of press ads had the highest impacts on both items and the category, but they only occurred once
Ad Location Promotional Performance
Inside page vs. ISPR and then talk about the small sample size ones ‘few times they were there it did well’
ROP (Run of Press): ads that appear in newspapers and are printed as part of the newspaper itself. 
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-17%
-19%
-18%
-26%
-24%
-20%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ad Location: Back Page (2)*, Back and Interior Page (3)*, Front Page (2)*, Inside Page (32), Inside Page and ROP (1)*, ISPR (48)
ROP= Run of Press
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

28. APPENDIX

29. Parameters and Definitions
Promotion Types Included in the Analysis
Print ads, Online Ads, ROP, ISPR
Retailer circulars, weekly food page ads and newspaper ads
NPG counts one print ad per week per item. PG does not double-count if multiple print ads run at the same time for the same item.
Measure Definitions
Discount level: the percentage difference between the actual promotion price (promotional price) of the individual item and the non-promotion price (non-promoted price) of the item
Baseline volume and dollars: the per-store-per-week volume and dollar sales generated by an item during weeks when the item was not on promotion during the period analyzed
Advertised volume and dollars: the per-store-per-week sales generated by an item during a promotion
Impact: the difference between the baseline (what is normally generated during a week when no promotional activity occurs) and promotion volume and dollars (what is generated during a week in which a promotion occurs)
Negative impact: the volume and dollars generated by the category during a promotion week that is lower than the normal baseline volume and dollars generated by the category

30. Parameters and Definitions
Promotion Type
ROP (Run of Press): ads that appear in newspapers and are printed as part of the newspaper itself. 
Circular: ad that is available in stores, or delivered as a flier with the newspaper
Online/Digital: the online/digital version of the advertising supplement made available via a retailer’s website
ISPR (In-Store Price Reduction): products that were promoted at the store for a lower price, but no ad was ran
Price: promotions that shows a price with the product, but no other promotions
Combination Ads: ads ran with one or more promotions present in the ad
BOGO: Buy One Get One Free
Lifestyle: Health claim and notation in the ad
Image Only: Ad with just a picture, but no price or notation
Mix and Match: ad featuring multiple products for the same price, or items grouped together
Reduced Price: ad notating “Reduced” in reference to the price
Logo: ads including brand, grower or origin logo associated with product
Loyalty Card: ad the note discounts are linked to a loyalty card, or additional discount will occur with loyalty card use
BOGO; Family Ad; Loyalty Card Required
Loyalty Card Required; Mix/Match
Price Listed
Lifestyle/ Family Ad
Family Ad

31. Safeway packaged meat hierarchy: Luncheon meat
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group

32. Columbus Better for You Claims Luncheon Meat Promotional Performance
Category impacts were larger when two better for you claims were on promotion than conventional only
Although impacts were large, there are not enough instances to know if 1 better for you claim at a time is a best practice
Columbus Better for You Claims Luncheon Meat Promotional Performance
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-21.6%
-30.1%*
-24.1%
Ads Counts: Conventional (60), 1 BFY Claim(2*), No 2 BFY Claims (26)
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

33. Overall, claims of any combination had larger impacts on the total category dollars than conventional
Discounts were also higher when better for you claim products were on promotion
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

34. Conventional and Natural Luncheon Meat Promotional Performance
Promoting 100% natural and conventional items together drove larger impacts for the category
There were no ads where only 100% natural items were promoted
Conventional and Natural Luncheon Meat Promotional Performance
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-21.6%
-25.1%
-22.0%
Ads Counts: Conventional (78), 100% Natural & Conventional (10), 100% Natural (0)
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15; Source: MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/15

35. The more items on promotion the bigger the impact to the total luncheon meat category
Individual item impacts were greater when one item was promoted
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ads Counts: 1 (3)*, 2-10 (34), (29), (11), (8)*, 42+ (3)*
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size

36. Little difference existed in impact of ISPRs paired with a feature and those paired with a sub-feature
Most promotions ran as in-store price reductions or a sub-feature and in-store price reduction
Ad Type Promotional Performance
AVERAGE DISCOUNT
-18%
-31%
-13%
-31%
-24%
-20%
Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts® 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015, MarketTrack Ad Data 52 Weeks Ending 7/18/2015
Ad Size: A,B, ISPR (1)*, A, ISPR (1)*, B (1)*, B, C, ISPR (2)*, B, ISPR (35), ISPR (48)
A=Feature Ad, B= Sub-Feature Ad, C=Liner, ISPR= In-Store Price Reduction
*Ad Counts of <10 have lower significance due to sample size