1. Political Socialization and Polling
Public Opinion
Political Socialization and Polling

2. Political Socialization
Where do we get our political ideas from?
Family
Religion
Education
Gender
Region of the country
Age
Race
These are just predictors everyone is open to making their own choices

3. What is Public Opinion? Class poll-
How much do you like the president on a scale of 1-5
How scared of Donald Trump are you on a scale of 1-5
How great is America on a scale of 1-5

4. What is Public Opinion?
Public opinion: How people think or feel about particular things
Not easy to measure
The opinions of active and knowledgeable people carry more weight

5. How Polling Works
Pollsters need to pose reasonable questions that are worded fairly
They have to ask people about things for which they have some basis to form an opinion

6. What to look for in a Poll
Who did it- What bias might they have
When was it done- old is bad, but informative
How many people were polled- the more the better
What questions were asked
Are the conclusions reasonable

7. Random Sampling
Random sampling is necessary to insure a reasonably accurate measure of how the entire population thinks or feels
For populations over 500,000, pollsters need to make about 15,000 phone calls to reach 1,065 respondents, insuring the poll has a sampling error of only +/- 3%
Real Clear Politics

8. Nine Senate Contests to Watch
U.S. Senate
Elections
Nine Senate Contests to Watch
Colorado
Florida
Illinois
Nevada
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Bennett* 40.0% vs. Coffman 43.0% Coffman +3
TBD
Duckworth 42.0% vs. Kirk* 36.0% Duckworth +6
Hassan 41.5% vs. Ayotte* 45.3% Ayotte* +3.8
Ross 36.5% vs. Burr* 42.5% Burr* +6.0
Strickland 41.0% vs. Portman* 40.0% Strickland +1.0 McGinty 32.6% vs. Toomey* 44.8% Toomey* +12.2
Feingold 48.7% vs. Johnson* Feingold +5.7
ELECTION
2016
* Incumbent Senator
Polling Numbers are the Real Clear Politics Average

9. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
2014 U.S. Demographic Population Data
2016

10. Table 7.3: The Gender Gap: Differences in Political Views of Men and Women

11. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
White Vote Broken Down by Gender
2016

12. Figure 7.1: Generational Gaps on the Issues
Insert table 5.3
Survey by Washington Post/Henry J. Kaiser Foundation/Harvard University, August 2-September 1, 2002, as reported in Elizabeth Hamel et al., "Younger Voters," Public Perspective, May/June 2003, p. 11.

13. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
White Vote Broken Down by Education Level
2016

14. Figure 7.3: Ideological Self-Identification
Insert figure 7.3 (formerly 5.2 in 9e)
The American Enterprise (March/April 1993): 84, Robert S. Ericson and Kent L. Tedin, American Public Opinion (New York: Longman, 2001), 101, citing surveys by CBS/New York Times.

15. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
U.S. Demographic Voting Trends
2016

16. Table 7.6: How Liberals and Conservatives Differ
Insert table 7.7 (formerly 5.7 in 9e)

17. Table 7.7: Policy Preferences of Democratic and Republican Voters

18. Now lets look at this election
THE CANDIDATES

19. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Latest Major Poll Numbers
2016

20. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Poll Numbers (cont.)
2016

21. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Issues that Favor Each Candidate
2016

22. 2016 Election Shaping up as a Contest of Negatives
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Election Shaping up as a Contest of Negatives
2016

23. 2016 Road to 270: Where Trump, Clinton start their race
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Road to 270: Where Trump, Clinton start their race
2016

24. Do Utahns agree or disagree?
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump have both said that the United States election system is “rigged”.
Do Utahns agree or disagree?
2016
Survey by Dan Jones & Associates, May 2-10, registered voters. Margin of error +/-4.04%

25. 2016 Owens holds edge over Love in Tribune-Hinckley poll
UTAH CONGRESSIONAL DELEGATION
Owens holds edge over Love in Tribune-Hinckley poll
2016

26. Push Polling
an ostensible “opinion poll” in which the true objective is to sway voters using loaded or manipulative questions.