1. Tech to Tech Odyssey of a kid from Brooklyn Tech to Florida Tech
Professor George A. Maul, Ph.D.
Diploma, Brooklyn Technical High School, New York
B.S., State University of New York, Maritime College at Fort Schuyler; USCG Merchant Marine Officers License
Commissioned Officer (ENS - LCDR), United States Coast and Geodetic Survey
Ph.D., University of Miami, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
Senior Scientist, NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory
Professor of Oceanography and Department Head, Florida Institute of Technology

2. HURRICANES
AND
TROPICAL
STORMS
OF THE
ATLANTIC
BASIN

3. Written by John M. Williams edited and presented by George A
Written by John M. Williams edited and presented by George A. Maul Professor and Department Head Marine & Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology

4. Hurricane Structure
Wind speed

5. Hurricane Tracks
Rita, 2005

6. Florida Keys, 1935

7. Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Average Number
Tropical Storms: 9.6
Hurricanes: 5.9
Intense Hurricanes: 2.3

8. 1995 19 11 5 9.6 5.9 2.3 Erin 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms
Hurricanes
5.9 11
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 5
Erin

9. 1996 13 9 6 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 6

10. 1997 7 3 1 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 1

11. 1998 14 10 3 9.6 5.9 2.3 1 CAT 5 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms
Hurricanes
5.9 10
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 3
1 CAT 5

12. 1999 12 8 5 9.6 5.9 2.3 Floyd and Andrew 1950-2000 Average Tropical
Storms
9.6 12
Hurricanes
5.9 8
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 5
Floyd and Andrew

13. 2000 15 8 3 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 3

14. 2001 15 9 4 9.6 5.9 2.3 TS Allison, Texas 1950-2000 Average Tropical
Storms
9.6 15
Hurricanes
5.9 9
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 4
TS Allison, Texas

15. 2002 12 4 2 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 2

16. 2003 16 6 3 9.6 5.9 2.3 1 CAT 5 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms
Hurricanes
5.9 6
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 3
1 CAT 5

17. 2004 15 8 6 9.6 5.9 2.3 1 CAT 5 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms
Hurricanes
5.9 8
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 6
1 CAT 5

18. South Atlantic “Catarina”: March 2004

19. Charley: August 2004

20. Frances: September 2004

21. Jeanne: September 2004

23. FIRST TIME USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET
Average
2005
Tropical
Storms
9.6 27
Hurricanes
5.9 15
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 7
4 CAT 5
FIRST TIME USE OF THE GREEK ALPHABET
882 mb

24. Katrina (2005) Rainfall

25. Steering Currents
AUG. 2005
AUG. 2004

26. Steering Currents
SEP. 2005
SEP. 2004

27. 1933 Hurricane Tracking Chart
Average
1933
Tropical
Storms
9.6 21
Hurricanes
5.9 10
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 6 ?

29. Wilma west coast Strom Surge
Category
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed mph (m/s)
Minimum Surface Pressure mb
Storm Surge
m (ft) 1
74-96
(33-42)
> 980
(3-5) 2
97-111
(43-49)
(6-8) 3
(50-58)
(9-12) 4
(59-69)
(13-18) 5
156+ (70+)
< 920
5.7+ (19+)

30. Wilma: October 2005

31. Wilma east coast Storm Surge
Category
Maximum Sustained Wind Speed mph (m/s)
Minimum Surface Pressure mb
Storm Surge
m (ft) 1
74-96
(33-42)
> 980
(3-5) 2
97-111
(43-49)
(6-8) 3
(50-58)
(9-12) 4
(59-69)
(13-18) 5
156+ (70+)
< 920
5.7+ (19+)

32. 9 5 2 2006 9.6 5.9 2.3 1950-2000 Average Tropical Storms Hurricanes
Intense Hurricanes
2.3 2

34. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

35. Total Risk = hazard frequency x elements at risk x vulnerability
Average
NOAA
CSU
Accu-weather
UKMO
Named
Storms
9.6
13-17 17
13-14
7-13
Hurricanes
5.9
7-10 9
Category 3+
2.3
3-5 5 3+
2007 season estimates

36. The big one is still out there
2007 season forecast:
17 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 intense hurricanes

37. John M. Williams