1. Enrollment, Affordability & Financial Aid
NYSAIS Trustee Governance Conference
December 3, 2016
Mark J. Mitchell Vice President, SSS by NAIS

2. Image Source: fastcodesign.com

3. NYSAIS Median Tuition, 2015-16 7-Day Boarding, Ninth Grade
Who Can Afford It?
NYSAIS Median Tuition,
Full-Pay Income
Day, First Grade
$36,400
$221,755
Day, Sixth Grade
$37,250
$225,055
Day, Twelfth Grade
$38,150
$228,560
7-Day Boarding, Ninth Grade
$55,145
$298,920
Source: NAIS Demographic Ctr
In New York state (2016),
Median HH income = $69,766
10.7% earn over $200K
In New York metro (2016),
Median HH income = $78,769
14.2% earn over $200K
Source: NAIS DASL
Source: SSS EFC Simulator

4. Pace of Change,
Data sources: NAIS DASL; US Census Dept

5. Who’s Seeking Financial Aid?
Range of Total Family Income
% of Filers
Source: SSS By NAIS PFS Filer Pool. Reflects total income from all sources, before taxes or allowances, as reported by families on the PFS submitted.
This chart shows SSS data comparing a few selected years and the most noteworthy trend being that the demand for financial aid among the 150K+ families is sharply increasing over the past decade or so. SSS was more likely to get a financial aid application from a family earning over $120K than from any family earning under $60K. This is one of the primary realities that is creating a new financial aid family for schools to manage.

6. Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau)
Who’s Getting Financial Aid?
Pct of Awards Made, by Income Quintile
Family Income Quintiles, 2013 (US Census Bureau)
Pct Pt Difference
$0 - $29,000
11.8%
9.0%
-2.8
$29,001 - $51,000
13.1%
9.7%
-3.4
$51,001 - $78,000
19.1%
14.3%
-4.8
$78,001 - $121,000
26.0%
24.3%
-1.7
Over $121,000
30.0%
42.6%
12.6
Top 5%: Over $217,000
6.2%
11.7%
5.5
Source: SSS By NAIS processing system database

7. NYSAIS Trends: Financial Aid Demand and Investment

8. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

9. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

10. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

11. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

12. NYSAIS Trends: Admission Activity

13. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

14. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

15. Source: NAIS DASL; not core sample

16. NYSAIS Trends: Income and Demographics

17. NY Income Shifts 2010 2016 2021 Projected % Growth 2010-2016
% Proj Growth
NYC Metro
HH Income, Median ($)
68,597
78,969
86,620
15.1
9.7
HH Income, Average ($)
98,535
113,918
129,639
15.6
13.8
NY State
60,676
69,766
76,025
15.0
9.0
86,504
100,268
113,114
15.9
12.8
Source: NAIS Demographic Center

18. NY School-Age Population Shifts
% Growth
% Proj Growth
NY State
Age 0 to 17 Years
-2.33
0.05
Males
-2.60
0.75
Females
-2.04
-0.67
NYC Metro
-1.56
0.28
-1.78
0.98
-1.33
-0.45
Source: NAIS Demographic Center

19. Image Source: http://gapingvoid.com/blog/2013/06/10/on-leadership-2/

20. The Affordability Conversation
Key Question: How does our price impact our ability to enroll the students we want?
Slow down in financial aid investment impacting enrollment and net revenue?
External shifts are mixed bag
Income growth slowing…projected tuition growth?
School-age population growth projected to be pretty flat
Recently, less selective among declining number of applicants
Tougher to yield an accepted student?
Examine relationships between these factors on enrollment
Population issue…demographics
Willingness/ability to pay issue…price, competition
Shifting priorities issue...mission, purpose

21. The Trustees’ Role Key angles of vision for trustees
Aspirational: Establish or affirm the primary purpose and goals of the aid investment
Financial: Clarify and diversify sources of financial aid funding
Societal: Articulate the community-wide benefits of the aid investment; understand the impact of external trends and realities
Professional: Ensure resources for staff training, tactical and leadership skills development
Set benchmarks and measure progress
Leverage the admission and financial aid voice ‘at the table’
Encourage school-wide ownership and accountability

22. Questions? Reactions?

23. Thank You!