1. Multi-Tier Framework Survey Kenya
Ministry of Energy & Petroleum, Kenya
Multi-Tier Framework Survey Kenya
Preliminary Results for 14 underserved counties in Kenya
May 9, 2017

2. Part 1 – Overview of the Approach

3. Introduction: Profile of Kenya
Unitary state under a Presidential system with some functions devolved to 47 counties led by Governors
Population: 46 million, GDP: US$ 63.4 Billion, GDP per capita US$ 1,377 (Source: World Bank, 2015)
About 4.8 million HH (FY 2015/6) connected up from 2.3 million (FY 2012/3) (Source: Kenya Power, 2016)
64% of the population have access to grid electricity (MoEP, estimates)
Installed capacity at 2,341 MW (Source: Kenya Power 2016)

4. Key Aspects of the MTF Survey
Moving from a binary approach of measuring electricity access (electrified vs non-electrified) to evaluating this based on MTF’s six attributes of (i) peak capacity, (ii) availability, (iii) reliability, (iv) quality, (v) legality and (vi) safety
Target including oversampling:
Over 1647 possible questions on the questionnaire

5. Key Outputs of the MTF Survey
7,331 interviews were completed (6,025 households, 477 education facilities, 150 health facilities, 133 government offices, 246 worship centers and 305 focus group discussions).
Extensive dataset covering various aspects including (1647 possible Qs):
basic demographics, occupation,
access to finance,
grid based electricity and non-grid based electricity,
energy for cooking and other thermal applications
energy consumption and costs,
total household consumptions
exposure to indoor air pollution,
attitudes towards modern energy, among others.
1591 interviews were completed in the 14 underserved counties. This is the focus of this presentation.

6. Lessons from the MTF
Backend automation: Minimize opportunities for human errors (CAPI, ODK, GIS tools etc.)
Training approaches: All questions are equal but some are more equal than others
Layers of verification: GIS maps, use independent verifiers, random calls to respondents, duration of the interviews etc.
Standardize but consider the local context: For example, (i) Types of questions “do you own land”, “how much rent would you receive”; (ii) Use local enumerators and entities; (iii) Train locally; (iv) Data collection team should also be the data cleaning team (the case of US$ 1.5 connections)
Limit interview duration to 1 hour: Validate through pre-testing

7. Part 2 – Summary of Findings (14 Counties ONLY)
Emphasize that these are only for the underserved counties (14 with a population of about 1.2 million HH or 20% of the population)

8. Power Sector: Vision
Transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens.
Access to competitively-priced, reliable, quality, safe, and sustainable energy is essential for achievement of the vision.
Grid connectivity is limited to the Mombasa- Nairobi-Kisumu corridor and remains nascent and uneconomical for the project area
Historical focus on centralized grid extension
National electrification rate of Kenya is 64% - aiming for universal electrification by 2020
Last Mile Connectivity Program plans to achieve 70% electrification
The presentation features results only from the 14 underserved counties and not the entire county

9. The 14 Underserved Counties
Higher incidence of poverty and low income levels
Highly dispersed population (including pastoralist communities)
About 20% of Kenya’s population live in the underserved counties
Total population estimated to be 1.2 million households, off-grid population is 650,000 households

10. A few grid connected HH are in Tier 0
Findings: Binary vs MTF Survey
Traditional Binary Approach (Grid Only)
Multi-tier Framework Approach
A few grid connected HH are in Tier 0
Preliminary results
-61 percent of the households have no access using the binary approach – the household is not grid connected
-MTF analysis has 57 percent of the households in tier 0 (no access)
-The current analysis does not capture the continuous tier from 0-1 for solar lanterns. Some households may move from Tier 0 to Tier 1 once this information is captured.
- A few grid connected households in Tier 0

11. Over 50% of urban HH are in tier 3+
Findings: Binary vs MTF Survey (Rural vs Urban)
Over 50% of urban HH are in tier 3+

12. Findings: Grid Alternatives (Solar Devices)
% HH with SL comparable in rural grid connected & non-connected HH
Solar Lanterns (SL)
Solar Lighting Systems (SLS)
SL’s used equally in R/U but SLS and SHS ~2x more likely in R than U; 33% of HH have a solar device (35% rural off-grid)
Solar Home Systems (SHS)
33% of HH have at least solar device

13. Findings: Duration of Use & Satisfaction
Over 70% of all solar devices acquired in the last 3 years
52% of SHS owners report being satisfied or very satisfied
45% of SLS and lanterns report being satisfied or very satisfied

14. Findings: Appliance Ownership
Remember, this area averages for the 14 underserved counties only
High mobile phone ownership linked to high demand for solar devices

15. Findings: Use of Mobile Money
89% of HHs use mobile money for multiple applications:
Sending and/or receiving money to/from family & friends
Topping up credit
Transferring credit to family or friends
Paying bills
More households have an mpesa account than own a mobile phone
More households have an mobile money account than own a mobile phone

16. Solar Lighting Systems (SLS) Solar Home Systems (SHS)
Findings: Solar PV Acquisition
Solar Lanterns (SL)
Solar Lighting Systems (SLS)
Solar Home Systems (SHS)
The rest acquired through cash sales

17. Findings: Lighting for off-grid (Non-Solar)
Unelectrified households still rely mostly on kerosene, followed by dry cells/torches

18. Findings: Cost of Replaceable Energy Services
Cost include: Mobile phone charging, FBL, batteries (cells) and battery charging
Over 30% of unelectrified households already pay over $5 a month for lighting, cell phone charging and dry cell batteries
But 50% pay less than $2 a month - affordability is an issue

19. Consultants: EED Advisory Limited (www.eedadvisory.com)
Stockholm Environment Institute (