1. Naya Sharma Paudel Dil Bahadur Khatri Rahul Karki Govinda Paudel
Understanding deforestation and forest degradation in the context of REDD+ in Nepal
Naya Sharma Paudel
Dil Bahadur Khatri
Rahul Karki
Govinda Paudel

2. Key messages
Drivers of D&D are diverse, complex and operate in different combination and permutation
There are distinct regional variations but most of them have common underlying causes
The most common feature is degradation which gradually in the long run turns into deforestation
While forest dependent poor can be visible agents, a close scrutiny reveals strong roles of powerful state and market agents in D&D
Corruption is pervasive and is one of the central underlying causes of D&D
Policies and measures have not been successful due to weak political will and also its limited scope of strengthening law enforcement
Many drivers are outside forest sector and therefore initiatives from within MoFSC are inadequate

3. Methodology Content analysis
Textual contents of the key policy documents - forest policies and other key sectoral policies.
Interview
Interviews with key government officials, experts on the field, activists and local leaders
Consultation meetings
Local, regional levels, and national level
Case stories  
Few cases mainly from Terai: far western (Dadeldhura district), central (Rautahat district) and eastern (Morang district) regions
Media scanning  
An analysis few key newspapers (from 2010 to 2013). We used both vertical and horizontal collection of media coverage.
Secondary information
Secondary information was accessed from reports of various government institutions, donor agencies and civil society organizations (CSOs)

4. Analytical framework
Political ecology combines the concerns of ecology and a broadly defined political economy thereby encompassing the constantly shifting dialectics between the society and environmental resources (Blaikie and Brookfield 1987)
It is an attempt to understand the political sources, conditions and ramification of environmental changes (1992:13)
It understands environment not only in its biophysical terms but also in its social form and therefore internalises the sensitivity of diverse socio-political forces and their relation with D&D ( Bryant and Bailey 1997).

5. Framework for analysing D&D
Concept of proximate and underlying causes (Geist and Lambin 2001)
(based on the sub-national data obtained from 152 cases in 29 countries)
Category
Definition
Examples
Proximate causes
Land-based human activities that directly result in loss of forest area or its quality
Biomass extraction, agricultural expansion and expansion of infrastructure
Underlying causes
Fundamental socio-economic and institutional forces that underpin the more obvious causes of D&D
Economic, policy/institutional, politico-cultural, technological and demographic
Others
Mainly to refer to the natural phenomena
Fire and invasive alien species
As different drivers operate together in different combination and sequence, the study considers the multiple combinations of these drivers

6. Deforestation and forest degradation – current status
Forest areas decreased from 45.5% (1964)- 38.1% (1978) – 29% (1994)
Deforestation rate 1.7% (between )(DFRS/FRISP 1999); 1.63 ( ) (FAO 2005:10); Forest area decreased at 2.7 percent and shrub lands increased with 12.7% ( ) (CBS, 2008). Terai 0.06% during ( ) (DoF 2005); Terai 1.3% ( ) (DOF 2005)
Measurement is not periodic, and different methodologies are used
Major form of land use change is forest – shrub – agricultural land

7. Proximate drivers Ranking Interview with experts
A survey with 35 people SN
Proximate drivers 1
Illegale logging 2
Encroachment 3
Fuelwood collection 4
Road 5
Forest fire 6
grazing 7
Invasive alien species 8
Fodder collection 9
Mining 10
hydropower
Drivers
(not in any order)
Area coverage
and distribution
(1-5)
Volume of biomass removed
Economic cost of reversal
Socio-political feasibility of reversal
Future strength of driver
Interview with experts
Validation during local level workshops

9. Encroachment – different strategies

10. Roads

11. Economic causes of D&D Illegal logging Encroachment
Illegal logging
Encroachment
Fuelwood collection
Roads
High demand for forest resources
Social preference, increased purchasing ability, timber intensive construction, constrained and unpredictable supply
Increasing food scarcity, decreasing land productivity, large mass of landless, land speculation
High costs of alternative fuel, and increasing brick factories, hotels, tourism, alcohol making
An unquestionable development priority, especially of local governments
Poverty
Desperate poor residing in and around forests, lack of alternative income and employment, deployed usually by traders and smugglers
Landless poor take refuge in forestland as a last resort
Poor people rely heavily on fuelwood for both household use and sale

12. Policy, governance and tenure
Illegal logging
Encroachment
Fuelwood
Road
Weak law enforcement
Organised criminals, life threats to DFO staff, weak capacity of DFO, political interference and impunity, weak judiciary system
Weak DFO capacity to monitor and evacuate illegal settlers, political party often back settlers
Weak DFO capacity to monitor and check unsustainable harvesting
Weak enforcement of Environmental Impact Assessment and other environmental standards
Weak tenure and local governance
Government managed forest are de facto open access and therefore invites unsustainable and criminal activities
Government managed forests are de facto open access and therefore are easy to occupy and settle illegally
In CF/CBFM fuelwood is collected sustainably. In government managed forest, this is mainly due to de facto open access situation
Private landowners tend to push the roads towards public forestlands

13. Weak governance – some indicators

14. Underlying causes and their ultimate effects
Unpredictable policy decision
Changes in
leadership
Frequent
changes of DFOs
Unsettled
society
No bold decision
Prolonged political transition
Fragmented society
Weak
legitimacy
Weak law enforcement
D&D
Vested policy decision
Myopic
perspective
Political interference
Poor rule compliance
Poor accountability
Poor
governance
Corruption

15. Frequently observed misconducts by different actors
Political, senior official level
Non-transparent staffs transfer
Unjustified policy decisions
Non-transparent licences
Manipulate legal cases
District/frontline staff
Unprofessional Permits/approval
Manipulate measurements
Weak and subjective monitoring
Leaders of forest user groups
Maintain dual records
Heavy reliance on contractors
Unaccounted or unreported harvesting
Contractors
Bribe leaders/officials at all level
Facilitate negotiation between staff, local leaders
Involve throughout the value chain:
(handover/inventory –to -harvesting –transportation)
Non-forestry agents
Parties/sister organisations – levy Chulthe-mundre – forceful levy
Security personnel - petty cash
Unsustainable harvesting

16. Economic
Increased demand for forest products
Increased access to market
High price of substitute
Poverty and high dependency on forests
Socio-political
Prolonged political transition, instability
Differentiated and fragile society
Rent seeking behaviour
Demographic drivers
Population growth
Migration
Identity movements
Technological drivers
Poor technology in forest management
Low agriculture productivity
Policy, institution &governance
Poor transparency and participation
Weak law enforcement
Corruption
Weak tenure
Unsustainable extraction of forest products
Illegal logging
Fuelwood collection
Grazing
NTFPs collection
Agriculture
Sukumbasisettlements
Gradual encroachment
Shifting cultivation
Infrastructure
Road contruction
Hydro-power
Mining
Urbanisation
Industrial area
Buildings
Others
Forest fire
Invasive species

17. Some important policies and measures
Illegal logging
Protected Areas
Strong law and presence of army have reduced D&D, but has displaced pressure to other forests, discouraged road through PAs
Churia Cons. Prog
Better conservation in some areas, deterred logging, but alienated local people, criminalised forest product use
CBFM (CF, LHF, CFM, BZ CF)
Substantially reduced illegal logging, increased timber and fuelwood supply, reduced encroachment, few exceptions exist, roads are constructed through CF to ease extraction
law enforcement
Increased cross-sector coordination, evacuation of illegal settlements, increased surveillance, strengthening IEE/EIA
Periodic ban on logging
Increased uncertainty, fluctuation in timber market, induce over harvesting before and after such bans
SFM
Piloting shows increased supply of sustainable timber/ fuelwood
Measures on dev project
Require to compensate through plantation against the logging of trees in project areas, compliance with EIA

18. Challenges in addressing D&D
Complexity of drivers
(too many actors, diversity of dynamics, ecological specificities, livelihood sensitivities)
Ineffectiveness of existing policies and measures
(narrow focus on law enforcement, poor cross sectoral coordination, displacement effects)
Inadequate capacity and preparedness of forest sector institutions
(weak political commitment, weak legitimacy and authority, poorly equipped, low morale)

19. Likely scenario of D&D for this decade
Underlying causes
Trends
Effects on proximate drivers
Economic
Increased demand for forest products
+ Increasing remittance
+ Changing lifestyle
+ Illegal logging
- Fuelwood consumption
Increased access to market
+ Road network
+ Market demand
High price of substitute
+ Price of oil
+ Fuelwood consumption
Poverty and high dependency on forests
+ Poverty reduce
+ Demand for agri-land
+ Encroachment
Policy, institution &governance
Poor transparency and participation
- Transparency and participation may improve
+ But contestation and conflicts may increase
+ Unsustainable roads
Weak law enforcement
+ Little prospects of improving law enforcement in the near future
Corruption
- CIAA has taken good initiatives, but may remain temporary
- Illegal logging
- Unsustainable roads
Weak tenure
+ No sigh of tenure reform
- May improve with federalism

20. Key recommended Strategies
Sustainable management of forests
Governance reform
Strengthen law enforcement
REDD+ and Agriculture
REDD+ and Road
REDD+ and Energy

21. REDD+ forest sector reform
Policies and measures
Cost of implementation
Socio-economic impacts
Potential support from REDD+ funds
Governance improvement
Difficult to gain honesty and integrity at political level
No apparent loss apart from few those benefiting from status quo
May have limitations in improving governance
Sustainable management forests
No major costs apart from initial investment, requires reorientation
increase supply of forests resources from sustainable sources
REDD+ funds help improve forest management
Strengthen law enforcement
Political support can be gained, costs involves in capacity, technology,
May restrict forest dependent poor from accessing forests and lands
REDD+ funds can support capacity, technology and compensate those affected

22. REDD+ Agriculture Policy measures Cost of implementation
Socio-economic impacts
Potential support from REDD+ funds
Land use plan
(identification of priority areas for forests, agriculture, settlements, that maximizes the production potentials of each land category)
Requires high political commitment, results in high initial cost of compliance
Some level of social unrest,
Can be used for further detail planning and support in its implementation
Increase/ensure peasant's access to land
Political feasibility moderate, no measure cost
encourages investment, reduce dependency on forests
Intensification
(Increasing productivity through climate smart’ agriculture)
High political feasibility, cost of technology and other support system
Benefits small scale and subsistence farmers (SSS)
REDD+ funds can support intensification through technology, extension
Agroforestry
Political feasibility moderate, cost of technology and other support system
Careful integration can benefit
REDD+ funds can support agroforestry promotion
Supportive policies
(agricultural tariffs, subsidies, targeted support, PES, ecotourism)

23. REDD+ Energy Policy measures Cost of implementation
Socio-economic impacts
Potential support from REDD+ funds
sustainable management of natural wood fuel resources (based on OP/MP that is ecologically within the regeneration capacity)
No additional costs in CBFM, in Govt managed forest, need to introduce some workable regime
Communities relying on govt forest may suffer from restriction
Active forest management including plantation
Some incentive to communities under CBFM, government must increase its investment for forest management
Government and communities both will benefit
REDD+ revenue can be spent for active forest management
Increase availability of renewable energy sources (electricity, biogas, biobriquette, LP gas)
Electricity is scarce in the short run, other sources are also not adequate
Poor people cannot afford to pay due to high price and scarcity
REDD funds can subsidize these sources
Improved cooking stove
High political support,
Moderate cost to replace the existing cooking stoves, socio-cultural resistance in some case
+ve impacts for women and children
REDD+ funds can support such schemes

24. REDD+ Infrastructure Policy measures Cost of implementation
Socio-economic impacts
Potential support from REDD+ funds
Road schemes within the local planning process
Needs a strong political commitment for a fully decentralized approach
+ ve impacts due to proper planning -
Timely release of funds
Has been slightly improved, achievable
+ no negative impacts
Sustainable technologies adopted
Technocratic approach can work
+ve. Creates employment opportunities
REDD+ funds can subsidies for sustainable technologies
Inbuilt repair and maintenance arrangement
- Ve. Initial cost increases
REDD+ funds can support timely and effective repair