1. Forest Fires and Controlled Burning
Group 16
Brandon Stone | Pavle Popovic | Asher MacEnulty | David Hughes | Sally Jiang

2. Testable Question
How does controlled burning affect the amount of forest burned by area in a simulated deciduous aspen forest in a sub-alpine environment?

3. Hypothesis
If a deciduous aspen forest in a sub-alpine environment is under the influence of controlled burning, then in a forest fire the area of the forest burned will be less than a deciduous aspen forest in a sub- alpine environment not under the influence of controlled burning because there will be less fuel for a fire to spread.

4. Why so specific?
Aspen grow in forests from 6,500 to 11,000 feet in elevation, and up to the treeline
Average colorado elev 6,800 ft
Aspen are easily damaged by fire, wind, and many kinds of insects, fungi, and animals
Susceptible to a wipeout in the event of an uncontrolled forest fire
Controlled burning isn’t detrimental to the ecosystem because Aspen sprouts grow quickly from roots
In controlled burning, aspen can regrow easily and steadily
Controlled burning helps to renew the forest, stimulating the germination of forest trees
Reduces fuel for a possible forest fire, controls competing vegetation and improves wildlife habitat
Aspen is one of the most widely distributed trees of North America
Data collected from simulation can be used in different countries

5. Context Important to know because:
The knowledge gained can be used to help mitigate the danger and area burned in future forest fires of forests consisting of mostly aspens
Controlled burning is currently an illegal method of fire prevention in Colorado
Knowledge gained could be used to reverse the ban on controlled burning in Colorado
If the results of the simulation are proven to be accurate and effective controlled burning may be reintroduced to Colorado
This would mitigate the effects of uncontrollable forest fires

6. Purpose
Purpose
To design a simulation software that will accurately mimic the effects of controlled burning in a deciduous aspen forest in a sub-alpine environment using grant money
Benefits of simulation
Impractical, unethical, and illegal in Colorado to experiment with controlled burning and actual forest fires
Variables accurately controlled
Independent variable easily controlled
Dependent variable determined mathematically
Control variables manipulated
Control variables can be manipulated independently, and their effect on the dependent variable determined accordingly.
Allows us to compile a database of historical forest fires, and how specific conditions affected those fires.

7. Grant Proposal
Contract a software engineer to program software simulation ($5000)
Dell computer and monitor x2 ($2500)
Total ($7500)

8. Variables (specifications for simulation)
Independent Variables
Dependent Variables
Controlled Variables
Controlled burn vs no controlled burn
Area of forest burned (in acres)
Weather, density, type of tree, elevation, method of controlled burning, average height of trees
Relevance
Controlled burning is currently illegal in Colorado. We need simulations to advise whether controlled burning is effective.
Most effective way to measure the effects of the independent variable.
Deciduous aspen forests in sub-alpine environments are most applicable to colorado. It is important to measure the effects of forest fire on this specific group. These variables are controlled through the software simulation.