1. NEF’s EU fisheries work Graphs and figures
Griffin Carpenter, Economic modeller

2. Contents Economic impacts from reaching MSY
Scientific advice and quota setting
Main economic trends in EU fleet
Fish dependence
Quota allocation
Links to publications

3. NEF’s EU fisheries work
MSY benefits

4. Increased landings from reaching Maximum Sustainable Yield
Source: Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates the estimated increase in landings to the 221 fleets in the BEMEF model. These fleets cover 73% of EU landings and not all stocks have a MSY estimate so in reality the difference is likely greater. The MSY estimates come from multiple different sources and wherever possible multi-species estimates of MSY were used. More detail can be found at

5. Increased earnings, GVA and profits
Source: Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates the estimated economic impacts to the 221 fleets in the BEMEF model. Again, the difference is likely greater due to fleet and stock coverage. The largest increase goes to profits as revenues increase while costs decrease due to large stock abundance and increased catchability.

6. Increased jobs
Source: Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates the estimated employment impacts to the 221 fleets in the BEMEF model. Again, the difference is likely greater due to fleet and stock coverage. Onboard fishing jobs see a small increase as there are more fish to be caught (an increase in landings) but also an increase in biomass that results in catchability improving and less effort (employment) required per unit of fish caught. Processing jobs increase dramatically due to the increase in landings that would require processing.

7. Increased wages
Source: Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates the estimated wage impacts to the 221 fleets in the BEMEF model. Again, the difference is likely greater due to fleet and stock coverage. Wages would increase whether vessels are using a crew share or flat rate as improved economic opportunities would be available across the fleet.

8. MSY summary table
Source: Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: Exactly how these economic benefits are split between profits, jobs and wages is uncertain due to the industry structure and future technologies but it can also be influenced by government policy.

9. NEF’s EU fisheries work
Scientific advice and quota setting

10. TACs are being set above advice
Source: Carpenter, G. & Kleinjans, R. (2015) Landing the blame: Overfishing in EU waters 2001–2015. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from: landing-the-blame
Description: This graph illustrates the average performance by each Member State over the period. A similar graph can be found in the Marine Policy journal publication.

11. But by a smaller amount over time
Source: Carpenter, G. & Kleinjans, R. (2015) Landing the blame: Overfishing in EU waters 2001–2015. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from: landing-the-blame
Description: This graph illustrates the amount that agreed TACs exceed scientific advice has fallen from 33% to 7% from 2001 to 2015 with most Member States improving over the period as well. While difficult to prove statistically, the gradual and positive trend is likely linked to stock recovery. A similar series of graphs can be found in the supplementary material to the Marine Policy journal publication.

12. We can infer responsibility by Member State
Source: Carpenter, G. & Kleinjans, R. (2015) Landing the blame: Overfishing in EU waters 2001–2015. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from: landing-the-blame
Description: This “league table” illustrates the Member States with the largest excess TAC both as a volume and as a percentage.

13. Little change in the number of excess TACs
Source: Carpenter, G. & Kleinjans, R. (2015) Landing the blame: Overfishing in EU waters 2001–2015. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from: landing-the-blame
Description: This graph illustrates the amount that despite the decline in excess TAC, the number or the ratio of TACs set above scientific advice hasn’t changed much from around 7 out of 10 TACs being set above advice on average. The decline then is from TACs continuing to exceed scientific advice but by a smaller amount and “converging”.A similar series of graphs can be found in the supplementary material to the Marine Policy journal publication.

14. We’ve created tables and twitter graphics

15. NEF’s EU fisheries work
Main economic trends in EU fleet

16. Industry profits are healthy and increasing
Source: Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries. (2015). The 2015 Annual Economic Report on the EU Fishing Fleet (STECF 15-07). Retrieved from:
Description: This is not a NEF graphic but comes from STECF’s 2015 Annual Economic Report on the EU Fishing Fleet (although I was a co-author). It shows that all measures of “economic sustainability are actually quite high and improving. This is likely linked to reductions in capacity, stock recovery and declining oil prices (for 2014).

17. Industry profits are healthy and increasing
Source: Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries. (2015). The 2015 Annual Economic Report on the EU Fishing Fleet (STECF 15-07). Retrieved from:
Description: It is worth noting that there is diversity in economic between Member States as Belgium has negative profits and Portugal and Finland have negative net profits. All other Member States could be described as having healthy fleets and many have high profit margins than other industries.

18. Very small (short-term) economic advantage
Source: NEF analysis using Carpenter & Kleinjans – Landing the blame: Overfishing in EU waters ; EUMOFA price database; STECF – The 2015 annual economic report on the EU fishing fleet
Description: This graph has not been published but I was interested in the actual economic benefit of setting TACs above scientific advice. Using landing prices and using Council TACs for what no ICES advice is provided, there appears to be a small short-term economic benefit to contrast with the large gains at MSY illustrated earlier. The question on fast vs slow transition pathways is currently being analysed by myself and a couple other fisheries economists but it is clear the net present value is higher from a fast transition as the potential gains are much higher than the short-term dip (if there even is one).

19. Very small (short-term) economic advantage
Source: Crilly, R. & Esteban, A. (2012). No catch investment: Investing to restore European fish stocks. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates the fastest possibly recovery to MSY and that the benefits clearly outweigh the costs. The question on fast vs slow transition pathways is currently being analysed by myself and a couple other fisheries economists but it is clear the net present value is higher from a fast transition as the potential gains are much higher than the short-term dip (if there even is one).

20. NEF’s EU fisheries work
Fish dependence day

21. Fish dependence calendar
Source: Bernick, S. & Devlin, S. Fish dependence – 2015 update. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This calendar shows the fish dependence day for different EU Member States. This draws attention to the issue that achieving sustainable fisheries in the EU is only a partial victory if we don’t have a sustainable seafood system and rely on fishing activities elsewhere. Fish dependence also draws attention to how this situation is in part caused by overfishing in EU waters so that consumption exceeds supply.

22. Fish dependence lessened with MSY
Source: Bernick, S. & Devlin, S. Fish dependence – 2015 update. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This tables illustrates that if sustainable fisheries were achieved (using BEMEF figures) many Member States like the UK, Sweden, the Netherlands and Denmark would no longer be fish dependent as there potential landings would exceed current levels of consumption.

23. NEF’s EU fisheries work
Quota allocation

24. Large-scale fleet pushing out small-scale
Source: Scientific, Technical and Economic Committee for Fisheries. (2015). The 2015 Annual Economic Report on the EU Fishing Fleet (STECF 15-07). Retrieved from:
Description: This series of graphs illustrates that across the EU, profits for the small-scale fleet (SSF) and actually declining while they increase massively for the large-scale fleet (LSF). There is no clear trend for the distant water fleet (DWF).

25. Quota allocation job creation potential
Source: Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates that allocating quota based on jobs/kg would drastically change how many jobs are available in the industry. In 2016 we will be completing more individualised analysis for each EU Member State.

26. Quota allocation trade-offs
Source: Unpublished, data comes from Carpenter, G & Esteban, A. (2015). Managing EU fisheries in the public interest. London: New Economics Foundation. Retrieved from:
Description: This graph illustrates that selecting different socio-economic indicators for quota allocation carries trade-offs. The important point is that the overriding practice of allocating quota based on historic share or the use of quota markets also has these trade-offs in outcomes but they are implicit.

27. NEF reports in this presentation
Managing fisheries in the public interest: Results from the Bio-economic Model of European Fleets Landing the blame: Overfishing in EU waters Fish dependence – 2015 update: The reliance of the EU on fish from elsewhere No catch investment: Investing to restore European fish stocks

28. Other NEF fisheries reports
NEF fisheries work (all) A series of economic briefings with marine case studies: Blue New Deal: Good jobs for coastal communities through healthy seas (2015) Unknown waters: Without better funding for data collection and enforcement, reforms to the Common Fisheries Policy risk falling flat (2014) Facts and Figures on UK fisheries (2015) Paying for overfishing: Why subsidising new vessel construction is bad news for EU taxpayers and our oceans (2014) Deep trouble: How deep-sea bottom trawling costs the EU money and jobs an damages our valuable ecosystems (2014)

29. Get in touch for any more info
@gwcarpenter