1. NOIA Fall Meeting
October 4, 2017
Karen A. Harbert

2. “Situational Awareness”

3. Monumental Changes by 2050

4. The New Energy Reality Demand to increase 56% by 2040
Energy Security is central to our national and economic security
Demand to increase 56% by 2040
90% in non-OECD countries
Electricity demand to increase 76%
1.6 billion people without electricity
~$40 trillion of new investment by 2035 to meet rising demand

5. An Inconvenient Energy Truth

6. Global Energy Demand

7. Future U.S. Energy Demand

9. Energy Reality Check

10. Moving from 2% to 3% average annual growth would mean doubling our income (GDP per capita) 12 years faster (23 versus 35 years).
Moving from 2.5% to 3% average annual growth would raise average incomes by an additional $4,200 and create 1.2 million jobs over the next decade.
Moving from 2% to 3% average annual growth would reduce the national deficit/debt by more than $3 trillion over the next decade.

11. Energy is 1/3 of all US Investment

12. Play-by-Play Look at New Energy Reality

13. Shale Gas and Manufacturing Growth
294 new chemical industry projects due to shale gas planned, totaling $179 billion in new capital investment
104 of these projects are in Texas - totaling $51 billion

14. Policy Matters!

15. Oil Exports on the Rise

16. Energy Security Rapidly Increasing

17. LNG Exports Boosting Gas Demand
November 2016: U.S. becomes net exporter of natural gas for first time in 60 years
By 2040, LNG exports will exceed 6.7 trillion tcf

18. Energy and Environmental Policy Outlook

19. Trump Considerations JOBS, JOBS, JOBS
3 Es: Economy, Energy, Environment
AND not OR
Personnel is policy
Energy/Environment Policy Actions
Early emphasis: Executive Actions (KXL, DAPL, CPP, NEPA, SCC, Methane, Permitting)
Congressional Review Act (CSAPR, Methane, Stream Protection Rule)
TRUMP (MARKET) VS CLINTON (MANAGED OUTCOME)

20. Executive Actions to Watch
ACCESS: Permitting, permitting, permitting
EXPORTS
INFRASTRUCTURE: Permitting
OPTIMIZE
UNNECESSARY REGULATIONS
Regulatory reform task forces
EPA Cost-Benefit Accounting
Social Cost of Carbon

21. Regulation Nation: What is and What Should Never Be
Recently Finalized Regulations Impacting Energy:

22. Outlook for Regulatory Relief
Agency Guidance/Decision-making
Executive Order
Formal Regulatory Process (*Litigation Alert*)
Congressional Review Act
Reconciliation/tax reform
Appropriations/must-pass bills
“Regular order” legislation (filibuster-able)

23. Legislation to Watch Tax Reform, Infrastructure Package
Regulatory Accountability Act (passed House Jan 11th)
REINS Act (passed House Jan. 5th)
Endangered Species Act
Clean Water Act (define “navigable waters”)
Clean Air Act
“Rifle Shot” reform/GHGs
NAAQS
New Source Review

24. A Return to Cooperative Federalism
Clean Air Act: “air pollution prevention…at its source is the primary responsibility of States and local governments.”
Clean Water Act: “It is the policy of the Congress to recognize, preserve, and protect the primary responsibilities and rights of States to prevent, reduce, and eliminate pollution.”

25. A Return to Cooperative Federalism
As of November 2016, the Obama EPA had Promulgated a record 57 FIPs!
State Regulatory Takeovers By Administration

26. Anti-Energy Environmentalism Evolves and Goes Mainstream

27. Economic Growth & Environmental Progress

28. The New Environmentalism
1970s – 2000s: pursue safer and cleaner fossil fuel use that is achievable at a reasonable cost.
Today: Eliminate fossil fuels entirely.
AEP/SWEPCO Turk Plant: 1st Ultra Supercritical plant in the country is now illegal to build and operate because of CO2 regulations.

29. Keep It In The Ground Intensifies
No Mining
No Fracking
No Power Plants
No Exports
No Pipelines

30. New Battleground: Pipelines

31. Energy Infrastructure Under Assault

32. KIITG Tactics: Whatever Works
Public Relations
Litigation
Permitting/regulatory processes (NEPA, ESA, etc)
Landowner organization/eminent domain
Native American issues
Investor pressure/divestment
Local elections
“Direct Action”/civil disobedience

33. Global Energy Institute 1615 H St NW, Washington, DC 20062
Global Energy Institute 1615 H St NW, Washington, DC 20062