1. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org
The Standing Disease
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

2. 1 Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

3. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

4. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

5. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org8
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

6. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org16 8
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

7. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org32 1 2 4 16 8
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

8. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org8 16 32 64
128
256
512
1,024
2,048
4,096
8,192
16,384
32,768
65,536
131,072
262,144
524,288
1,048,576
2,097,152
4,194,304
8,388,608
16,777,216
33,554,432
67,108,864
134,217,728
268,435,456
536,870,912
1,073,741,824
2,147,483,648
4,294,967,296
8,589,934,592
33 steps!
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

9. Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  www.scienceinschool.org
“Eyebrows were raised when the Centers for Disease Control’s model forecast 77 trillion cases if the epidemic went unchecked”
– Ben Cooper, 2006
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

10. ? Reproduction number (R0) Definition: Average number of people an
Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  ?
Reproduction number (R0)
Definition: Average number of people an
infected person infects at the start of an epidemic
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

11. ? R0=2 Reproduction number (R0)
Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  ?
Reproduction number (R0)
Definition: Average number of people an
infected person infects at the start of an epidemic
R0=2
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

12. Cases decrease each step
Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  ?
Reproduction number (R0)
R0 measures how quickly an epidemic will take off…
R0 < 1
Cases decrease each step
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.

13. ? R0 < 1 R0 > 1 Reproduction number (R0)
Science in School  Issue 40: Summer 2017  ?
Reproduction number (R0)
R0 measures how quickly an epidemic will take off…
R0 < 1
Cases decrease each step
R0 > 1
Cases increase each step
Supporting material for:
Kucharski A et al. (2017) Disease dynamics: understanding the spread of diseases. Science in School 40: 52–56.