1. Face-to-Face with Distance Education
25-26 October 2001
Face-to-Face with Distance Education
Professor J C Taylor
Deputy Vice-Chancellor (Global Learning Services) The University of Southern Queensland Australia
ODLAA Forum 2001

2. 1982 ICCE Conference in Vancouver:
25-26 October 2001
1982 ICCE Conference in Vancouver:
“Technology’s the answer, but what is the question?”
Today, the technology has changed, but the question hasn’t.
ODLAA Forum 2001

3. "gales of creative destruction”
Joseph Schumpeter (1934) predicted that every 50 years or so, technological revolutions would cause
"gales of creative destruction”
in which old industries would be swept away and replaced by new ones.

4. Technological Changes
Steam Power s to the 1840s
The Railways s to the 1890s
Electric Power s to the 1930s
The Motor Car s to the 1980s
Information Technology s to ?

5. Pace of Change 1. Radio: 50 million users in 38 years 2. Television:
3. The Internet:
50 million users in 5 years
Current prediction:
One billion users by the year 2003

6. Internet Access at Home
167.1 million - USA
27.1 million Germany
23.4 million United Kingdom
18.1 million Italy
11.6 million Taiwan
9.2 million Australia
Source: Cyberatlas, June 2000

7. Internet Access at Home
% With Internet Access at Home
Australia 50%
France 22%
New Zealand 51%
Sweden 61%
UK %
USA 60%
Source: A C Nielsen, June 2000

8. e-Readiness Rankings: Leaders
e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score
1 USA
Australia UK
Canada
Norway
Sweden
Singapore 7.87
Finland
Denmark
Netherlands 7.69
Switzerland 7.67
Germany
Hong Kong 7.45
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

9. e-Readiness Rankings: Contenders
e-Readiness ranking Country e-Readiness score
14 Ireland
15 France
16 (tie) Austria
16 (tie) Taiwan
18 Japan
19 Belgium
20 New Zealand 7.00
21 South Korea 6.97
22 Italy
23 Israel
24 Spain
25 Portugal
Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit eBusiness Forum, May 2001

10. Prediction:
'The death of distance as a determinant of the cost of communications will probably be the single most important economic force shaping society in the first half of the 21st century'.
Cairncross (1997)

11. Underestimating Change
In the 1940s the Chairman of IBM predicted that the world market for computers would be approximately five.
In 1977, the CEO of Digital could not comprehend why anyone should need a personal computer.

12. Getting It Wrong Western Union Internal Memo, 1876 —
“This telephone has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us”.

13. Education must lay the foundation for the success of the global economy.

14. Fast, Flexible and Fluid
The transition from the Industrial to the Information Age was encapsulated by Dolence and Norris (1995), who argued that to survive organisations would need to change from rigid, formula driven entities to organisations that were “fast, flexible and fluid”.

15. Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard ---
25-26 October 2001
Institutional e-Readiness
Trying to change a university is like trying to move a graveyard ---
it is extremely difficult and you don’t get much internal support.
ODLAA Forum 2001

16. Why should universities change?
25-26 October 2001
Institutional Inertia
Why should universities change?
Increasing competition on a global scale.
ODLAA Forum 2001

17. More courses available online means more competition for fee-paying students and the emergence of the global higher education economy.

18. The Global Lifelong Learning Economy
Will your institution survive?
Will your institution prosper?

19. Increasing Competition
Unext (Business education only)
London School of Economics and Political Science
University of Chicago
Carnegie Mellon University
Columbia University
Stanford University

20. Increasing Competition
The Cambridge e-MBA
Cambridge University’s business school has joined forces with FT Knowledge, part of the global communications group Pearson plc, to offer this new degree from September 2001.

21. Fast, Flexible and Fluid?
791 years ago Cambridge University passed a rule requiring all students to reside in the town of Cambridge, England. Last year that rule was revoked. The 800 year-old rulebook had to be altered to make way for the university’s first Internet-enabled program, the global e-MBA.

22. Increasing Competition
UCLA’s OnlineLearning.net
offers more than 1,000 online courses and has enrolled over 12,000 students.
offers 1,000 American Airlines frequent flyer points when you enrol in an online course.

23. The Big Picture Change is the only constant.
Growth is the only certainty.

24. Future Projections
A recent IBM report forecasts a threefold (US$4.5 trillion) jump in global education expenditure during the next 13 years.
(Source: Richard Gluyas, New Nabs e-School Deal April 2000).
The World Bank expects the number of higher education students will more than double from 70 million to 160 million by 2025.

25. Five Generations of Distance Education Technology
The Correspondence Model
The Multimedia Model
The Telelearning Model
The Flexible Learning Model
The Intelligent Flexible Learning Model

26. DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
First Generation
MODELS OF
DISTANCE EDUCATION
AND ASSOCIATED
DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL
VARIABLE
COSTS
APPROACHING
ZERO
FLEXIBILITY
HIGHLY
REFINED
MATERIALS
ADVANCED
INTERACTIVE
DELIVERY
Time
Place
Pace
THE CORRESPONDENCE
MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes No
• Print No

27. DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
Second Generation
MODELS OF
DISTANCE EDUCATION
AND ASSOCIATED
DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL
VARIABLE
COSTS
APPROACHING
ZERO
FLEXIBILITY
HIGHLY
REFINED
MATERIALS
ADVANCED
INTERACTIVE
DELIVERY
Time
Place
Pace
THE MULTIMEDIA MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Yes Yes Yes Yes No No
• Print
Audiotape
• Videotape
Computer-based learning (eg CML/CAL)
Interactive video
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

28. Variable costs tend to increase or decrease directly (often linearly) with fluctuations in the volume of activity.
In traditional distance education delivery, the distribution of packages of self-instructional materials (printed study guides, audiotapes, videotapes, etc) is a variable cost, which varies in direct proportion to the number of students enrolled.

29. DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
Third Generation
MODELS OF
DISTANCE EDUCATION
AND ASSOCIATED
DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL
VARIABLE
COSTS
APPROACHING
ZERO
FLEXIBILITY
HIGHLY
REFINED
MATERIALS
ADVANCED
INTERACTIVE
DELIVERY
Time
Place
Pace
THE TELELEARNING MODEL
No No No No Yes
• Audio-teleconferencing
Videoconferencing
• Audiographic communication
Broadcast TV/Radio and Audio-teleconferencing No
No No No Yes Yes

30. DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
Fourth Generation
MODELS OF
DISTANCE EDUCATION
AND ASSOCIATED
DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL
VARIABLE
COSTS
APPROACHING
ZERO
FLEXIBILITY
HIGHLY
REFINED
MATERIALS
ADVANCED
INTERACTIVE
DELIVERY
Time
Place
Pace
THE FLEXIBLE LEARNING MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
• Interactive multimedia (IMM)
• Internet-based access to WWW resources
• Computer mediated communication (CMC).
Yes No
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

31. The underlying resource model is not significantly different from conventional on campus teaching, with a staff member being necessary to manage groups of approximately 20 students to maintain a reasonable quality of interaction and academic support.

32. DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
Fifth Generation
MODELS OF
DISTANCE EDUCATION
AND ASSOCIATED
DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
CHARACTERISTICS OF DELIVERY TECHNOLOGIES
INSTITUTIONAL
VARIABLE
COSTS
APPROACHING
ZERO
FLEXIBILITY
HIGHLY
REFINED
MATERIALS
ADVANCED
INTERACTIVE
DELIVERY
Time
Place
Pace
THE INTELLIGENT FLEXIBLE
LEARNING MODEL
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
• Interactive multimedia
Internet-based access to WWW resources
• CMC, using automated response systems
Campus portal access to institutional processes & resources
Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

36. XML (eXtensible Markup Language) DTD (Document Type Definition)
Print
Web CD
DVD
RENDITIONS:
STYLE SHEET:
XSL
XSL
XSL
XSL
XML
CONTENT REPOSITORY:
DTD (Document Type Definition)
INPUT:
XML Editor

40. USQOnline demonstration…….

41. Garrison (1997)
“The reflective and explicit nature of the written word is a disciplined and rigorous form of thinking and communicating …… it allows time for reflection and, thereby, facilitates learners making connections amongst ideas and constructing coherent knowledge structures”.

42. Automating e-Learning
In the USQ approach, many teaching staff make use of discussion groups, which entail students posting “reflections” via the asynchronous CMC system.
Storing such interactions with appropriate metadata tags in a database is technically straightforward, and provides a rich resource for mining by key word/matching, using an automated response system.

43. Incoming “new” question from student NO
Duty Tutor
Incoming “new” question from student
Reusable Learning Objects Database
Search / Match
Previous Questions <meta tags>
Previous Answers <meta tags>
New Answer
“Immediate” feedback to student
YES
Trigger

44. 5th Generation
As the intelligent databases become more comprehensive, the institutional variable costs for the provision of effective academic and administrative student support will tend towards zero.

47. The PC-ePhone

52. 5th Generation
In effect, fifth generation distance education provides students with better quality tuition and more effective pedagogical and administrative support services at lower cost.

53. “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough
The Internet is set to connect virtually everyone and everything – the Web is turning into humanity’s collective brain.
Any organisation hoping to survive must mirror the Internet itself.
It must become:
open non-hierarchical
democratic experimental
tightly networked endlessly adaptable

54. “Clicks and Mortar” are not enough
25-26 October 2001
“Clicks and Mortar” are not enough
To survive and prosper organisations need to mirror the Internet and to develop a collective brain capable of -
“habitual and radical innovation”.
(Gary Hamel, Inside the Revolution, 2001)
ODLAA Forum 2001

55. The e-Revolution
“Any new technology environment eventually creates a totally new human environment” Marshall McLuhan

56. Aussie Rules…….OK?