1. Pre-MDD Military Capability Analyses
Initiation to Materiel Development Decision (MDD)

2. Lesson Objectives
Examine analytical approaches that identify military capabilities, capability gaps, recommend non-materiel & materiel approaches, & recommend action
Examine military capability analytical approaches
Explore the relationship these approaches have to the DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR) & Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)
Summarize the essential characteristics & qualities of Capability Based Assessments (CBAs)

3. Why Care About Up-Front Analyses?
Life Cycle Cost Determination*
Life Cycle Cost Determination
100
Approximately
95% of determined here 80 60
Actual
Funds
Spent 40 20
Approximately
10% of LCC Spent
EMD
MDD A TD B C
P&D
O&S
Control Costs Here:
“Sweet Spot”
Approximately
5% of reduction left here
*Notional curves: solid based on combined DAU/AMR Research Inc. data – dashed curves based on “S” function
Cost
Reduction
Opportunities 3

4. Pre-MDD Military Capability Analysis
Joint Concepts
Capability & Requirements
Analyses
MS C
MS B
Strategic Guidance
MS A
Technology
Development
Engineering & Manufacturing Development
Production & Deployment
Materiel
Solution
Analysis
Technology Opportunities & Resources
ICD
O&S
User Needs
MDD
CDD
CPD
AoA
Getting the front end right is key
– just like anything else we do…
AoA: Analysis of Alternatives
CDD: Capability Development Document
CPD: Capability Production Document
ICD: Initial Capabilities Document\
MDD: Materiel Development Decision
O&S: Operations & Support

5. Three “Lanes” to Meet Warfighter Needs
“Keep right, except to pass” D E L I B R A T M G N U
0 – 2
YRS
0+ to 5 YRS
CONFLICT
LANE
ONLY
POTENTIAL
2-6+

6. Lane #1: The Deliberate Process
Deliberate Requirements
Service, CCMD or Agency-driven
Traditional route for capabilities that need significant tech development and/or are not urgent or compelling in nature
“Keep right, except to pass”
0 – 2
YRS
0+ to 5 YRS
2-6+
YRS U R G E N T E M R G N T D E L I B R A T
JRAC addresses Lanes #2 & #3 later this week…
CONFLICT
LANE
ONLY
POTENTIAL
CONFLICT
LANE

7. Solving Gaps Regardless, solid analysis ought to back these up…
Paths to solving capability gaps
GFM: for materiel approach available in Joint Force – basically adjusting what we currently have to where it’s needed…
DCR: When DoD needs organic Joint Force non-material approach
ICD: when DoD needs both materiel & non-materiel approach
Regardless, solid analysis ought to back these up…
DCR: DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation
GFM: Global Force Management
ICD: Initial Capabilities Document

8. DoD Analytical Approaches to Identify Capabilities
CJCSI , Joint Lessons Learned Program
Documentation reflects operational utility
May lead to further analyses (CBA trigger?) & development of JCIDS documents for staffing
Joint IED Defeat Transition Package
Used as a source document for the CDD & CPD - JROC approval & transition to program of record (POR)
JCTD – Joint Capability Technology Demonstration
Only after a sufficient assessment of operational utility
Outlined in JCTD website:
Prototypes
Used to address JUONs & JEONs
(FITE)
(IED robot with Tanglefoot)
(JLTV)

9. DoD Analytical Approaches to Identify Capabilities (continued…)
CBA is the “typical” analytical basis to identify needed capabilities & associated capability gaps
Recapitalization, replacement, & IS: CBA takes No Longer Than 90 days (NOT including writing & staffing times…)
More complex or new mission area: CBA takes No Longer Than 180 days (again, no writing & staffing times…)
No extensive detail or pre-determined solution
CBA: Capabilities-Base Assessment
IS: Information Systems

10. DoD Capability Analysis Outputs
Regardless of the approach, these analyses ought to: primary outputs will:
Describe the mission & military problem
Assess prior studies
Id the tasks needed to meet mission objectives
Id the capabilities using one or more JCAs - describe the tasks, conditions, standards
Assess the capability gaps – needed vs programmed force structure
Assess the operational risk for each capability gap if not addressed
Evaluate possible non-materiel & materiel approaches that would satisfy part or all of the capability gaps
Recommend the most appropriate approach to close the capability gaps and reduce operational risk
Fundamental goal: recommend action or accept risk
JCA: Joint Capability Area

11. CBA Overview CBA: Initiated by: Becomes basis for:
Validating capability needs
DoD Sponsor
CBA:
Typical analytic basis of JCIDS
Based upon:
Recommends:
Joint
Concepts
Endorsed
CONOPS
Formally- tasked OPLANS and CONPLANs
ACTION w/o excessive rigor
ISCs
CCJO: Capstone Concept for Joint Operations
CONPLAN: Concept Plan
ISC: Integrated Security Constructs
OPLAN: Operation Plan

12. Identify Military Concepts Identify Mission or Military Problem
CBA Steps in the JCIDS Manual
Step 4
Step 5
Step 6
Step 7
Step 2
Identify
Previous
Studies
Step 3
Determine
Study
Rigor
Needed
Capabilities
Capability
Gaps
Operational
Risks
Step 1
Identify Military Concepts
Identify ISCs
Identify Mission or Military Problem
Scope
Identify Non-
Materiel
Approaches
Assess
Make
Recommendations
Needs Analysis
Admin:
Post to
KM/DS
Studies
Repository
Gap Analysis
Solutions Analysis
Study Initiation Notice
Termination Memo (if study terminated)
Study Results

13. CBA to AoA JCIDS Acq Conduct of a CBA ICD AoA Formal Entry Point…
ID tasks, performance, & conditions
“What’s the military problem”
MDD
Formal Entry Point…
ID capability gaps & redundancies
“Analyze the programmed force structure & doctrinal approaches”
CBA/ICD Sets up the AoA…
ID possible non-materiel & materiel solutions “Address gaps or accept risk”
Seam Between Capabilities & Acquisition
ICD
AoA
JCIDS
Acq
RM Skill Set = Capability Analysis
RM Skill Set =
Requirements
Development
Conduct of a CBA

14. CBA Lit Search: Strategic Guidance
QDR
CRA
Previous
Work
(AIR, J8
Repository)
QDR
NSHS
NSS
NSS
NDS
NDS
NMS
NMS
CBA:
Typical JCIDS analysis
UCP
JSCP
UCP
JSCP
GEF
DPG
GEF
DPPG
AIR: Acquisition Information
Repository
CRA: Chairman’s Risk Assessment
QDR: Quadrennial Defense Review
NSS: National Security Strategy
NDS: National Defense Strategy
NMS: National Military Strategy
NSHS: National Strategy for Homeland
Security
UCP: Unified Command Plan
GEF: Guidance on Employment of the Force
DPG: Defense Planning Guidance
JSCP: Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan

15. CBA Lit Search: Conceptual Guidance
Joint
Concepts
Legacy
Docs:
JOAC,
JOE,
JOC, JIC,
Etc…
CJCSI C
JCD&E*
J7 - JCCD
CBA:
Typical analytical basis of JCIDS
JCA
JCA
J7 JCCD website -
JCCD is responsible for developing conceptual solutions to a Combatant Commander or Service Chiefs expected challenges and then evaluate potential solutions to those challenges through joint experimentation.
JCCD: Joint Capabilities to Concept Division
JCD&E: Joint Concept Development & Experimentation
CCJO: Capstone Concept for Joint Operations
JIC: Joint Integrating Concept
JCA: Joint Capability Area
JOC: Joint Operating Concept
JOAC: Joint Operational Access Concept
JOE: Joint Operating Environment

16. JCIDS Document Staffing
Acquisition
(and/or DCRs)
Functional Capability
Board
SME inputs from DoD
Prioritization within this portfolio
CCMD Inputs
Allied/Partner Nation equity
Non-material recommendations
Gatekeeper
FCB Chair:
Ready Validation
Discussion?
Sponsor
JCB
JROC
Termination
Combined
“Staffing”
4 days
Est. 21 days Commenting/30 days Adjudication/7 days to FCB Chair
Est. 7 days to JCB/14 days to JROC
Total:
83 days
Theoretical ICD max (CBA start to JROC): 263 days

17. Functional Capability Boards
Battlespace
Awareness
Logistics
Force
Support
C4/Cyber
Includes NC and
C2 JCAs
Brig Gen
Weggeman
JS J-6
Mr. Gareau
JS J-2
Mr. Hawkins
JS J-4
BGen
O’Donohue
JS J-8
Protection
BG Polakowski*
JS J-8
Force
Application
BGen
O’Donohue
JS J-8
Additional JCAs:
Building Partnerships
Corporate Management
& Support
The FCBs are boards below the JCB and provide review and assessment of documents and adjudication of lower level issues within their designated portfolios prior to review by the JCB, review/adjust Joint prioritization established by the FCB Working Groups (WGs), and perform other activities at the direction of the JCB or the JROC.
The FCBs are aligned with the joint capability areas (JCAs), which define portfolios of functionally similar capabilities within which each of the FCBs can focus their efforts.
*Replacement pending…
FCB Membership: (O-6 level)
Services
Combatant Command Reps
OSD (AT&L)
OSD (I)
USecAF (Space)
DOD CIO
D/CAPE
DIA Rep (Threat)
ODNI/IRB
Other DoD Agencies as necessary
OSD (Comptroller)

18. CBA Framework: Six FCBs – but Nine JCAs
JCA Definition:
“…currently the preferred method the DoD uses for reviewing and managing capabilities.”
“Collections of like DoD capabilities functionally grouped to support capability analysis…”
First proposed in 2003 (21), tiered as far as five levels:
Updated Structure:
JCA # Name FCB Sponsor
1 Force Support Same J-8
2 Battlespace Awareness Same J-2
3 Force Application Same J-8
4 Logistics Same J-4
5 C4 C4/Cyber J-6
6 Cyber C4/Cyber J-6
7 Protection Same J-8
8 Building Partnerships NA J-5
9 Corporate Management NA J-5

19. Sample JCA & Tiering
2 Battlespace Awareness – The ability to understand dispositions and intentions as well as the characteristics and conditions of the operational environment that bear on national and military decision-making. 2.1 Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance – The ability to conduct activities to meet the intelligence needs of national and military decision-makers Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Planning and Direction – The ability to synchronize and integrate the activities of collection, processing, exploitation, analysis and dissemination resources to meet information requirements of national and military decision-makers Define and Prioritize Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Requirements – The ability to translate national through tactical objectives and needs into specific information and operational requirements for ISR. … 2.2 Environment – The ability to characterize and exploit the meteorological, space and oceanographic information from the sub-bottom of the earth’s oceans up to and including space.

20. 1st Recommendation: Non-Materiel Approaches
Doctrine
Facilities
Leadership
&
Education
Organization
Policy
Personnel
Training
DCR
DOTmLPF - P
Change
Recommendation

21. Joint DOTmLPF-P Change Recommendation (DCR)
When DoD decides a joint, Non-Materiel solution is the right way to go:
Doctrine: change how we fight
Organization: change how we’re organized to fight
Training: change how we train our DoD personnel
materiel: acquire COTS, GOTS, or NDI
Leadership: adjust the joint leader’s professional development
Personnel: add or reassign people
Facilities: move or realign buildings & infrastructure
Policy: change policy that impacts how we fight
COTS: Commercial Off-the-Shelf
GOTS: Government Off-the-Shelf
NDI: Non-Developments Items

22. 2nd Recommendation: Materiel Approaches
Development & Fielding of Information Systems
Or similar technologies with high obsolescence rates
Evolution of existing capabilities
Evolution of Existing Systems
Provide significant capability improvement
Replacing existing system with more capable system
Simple recapitalization
Transformational Systems
Differ significantly in form, function, operation & capabilities
Significant improvement over current capability
Transforms how we accomplish mission

23. Bottom Line Pre-MDD Capability Analysis:
AoA
Sound Analysis, Findings & Recommendations: vital for shaping the force & the foundation of a successful acquisition
These same results then support which acquisition document?
Materiel Solution Analysis (MSA) Phase
Usually starts & supports which
acquisition phase?
Materiel Development Decision (MDD)
Supports which decision?
Initial Capabilities Document (ICD)
Support which document?
Results & Recommendations

24. Lesson Take Aways Solid Pre-MDD analysis is vital to the ICD
Ensure your approach effectively scopes the analysis needed (Goldilocks Zone…)
Keep in mind it sets up later, more-detailed analyses & decisions
CBAs: days, use representative scenarios from the ISC, & use a realistic timeframe for delivery of the capability
Align all capability requirements to prioritized JCAs
Develop the ICD using the correct format and length
Recommend appropriate actions to mitigate gaps
Accept risk
Non-materiel
Materiel

25. Sources for More Info Acq Info Repository (AIR)
DASD/RF (Rapid Fielding - JCTD) site:
DAU online course CLR 250, Capability-Based Assessments:
General CBA overview – more detailed than RQM 310 – use browse mode
DAU RM Community of Practice (RMCoP):
DTM site:
JCIDS Intellipedia site:
CJSCI H, JCIDS, 10 Jan 2012
CJCSI F, JROC Charter, 10 Jan 2012
JCIDS Manual, 19 Jan 2012 (& errata)
JCIDS Process Flowchart, 19 Jan 2012

26. Questions? 26

27. What does the JROC expect from Pre-MDD analyses?
Analytical depth
Specific recommendation
Analytical breadth
Action timetables
0 of 23

28. What’s the maximum time a CBA should take?
30 days
90 days
180 days
263 days
0 of 23

29. What recommendations can be submitted with a DCR?
Increasing manpower, operational tempo, spare parts, fuel supplies, and recruiting
Recommend changing PME subjects or emphasis
Adding personnel to mission areas
All of these choices are correct
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30. Validated Threat Documents AoA Study Report
Which of the following is not a predecessor document or input for the ICD?
Joint Concepts
Validated Threat Documents
AoA Study Report
Capabilities Based Assessments (CBAs)
All of these choices are correct
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31. Which choice best represents the role of the CBA?
It maintains focus on developing specific solutions after sponsor initiation
It indirectly supports the ICD staffing process
It is analysis that underpins JCIDs
It directly supports the CDD staffing process
All answers are correct
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32. CBAs identify all but which of the following:
Possible non-materiel approaches
Operational risks
Materiel approach support
Shortfalls in existing systems
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