1. NEVADA’S ECONOMY: RESET. . . REBUILD . . . RECOVER
2013
Nevada Transportation Conference
April 9, 2013
Reno, Nevada
Prepared by:

2. NEVADA’S ECONOMY

3. This is NOT your father’s recession.
Nevada Recovery Comparison: Last 11 Recessions
% Job Losses Compared to Peak Job Month,
Current Jobs Recession-NV
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indexed by RCG.

4. This is NOT your father’s recession, cont.
Latest Growth: Feb = 1,157,700 Feb = 1,133,900 # change = +23,800 % change = +2.1% Pre-Recession (Jan Nov. 2007) Peak Growth: Feb = 1,267,400 Feb = 1,192,400 # change = +75,000 % change = +6.3% Pre-Recession Annual Average (Jan Nov. 2007) Avg. # change = +40,700 Avg. % change = +4.6% Post-Recession Annual Average (Jun Jan. 2013) Avg. # change = -18,700 Avg. % change = -1.5%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indexed by RCG.

5. The Stair Climb Return RCG Nevada & US Job Index*: 2000 - 2013 Nevada
February 2013 = 93.7
2012 Annual avg. = 92.4
avg. = 96.3
avg. = 98.9
avg. = 92.1
* Based on Nevada’s employment-to-workforce ratio (Nevada Department of Employment, Training & Rehabilitation). Indexed to a baseline of 100 in March 2000.

6. Private jobs growing at a moderate pace, but government jobs continue to lag.
Nevada Public & Private Employment Growth:
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

7. The “real” unemployment rate - beyond the official rate.
Alternative Measures of the Nevada Unemployment Rate:
U6 = U3 + All Marginally Attached + Part-time Workers %
U5 = U3 + Discouraged + All Other Marginally Attached Workers-13.3
U4 = U3 + Discouraged Workers- 11%
Discouraged workers (U-4, U-5, & U-6 measures) are persons who are not in the labor force, want & are available for work, & had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They are not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the prior 4 weeks, for the specific reason that they believed no jobs were available for them.
The marginally attached (U-5 & U-6 measures) are a group that includes discouraged workers. The criteria for the marginally attached are the same as for discouraged workers, with the exception that any reason could have been cited for the lack of job search in the prior 4 weeks.
Persons employed part time for economic reasons (U-6 measure) are those working less than 35 hours per week who want to work full time, are available to do so, & gave an economic reason (their hours had been cut back or they were unable to find a full-time job) for working part time
The six state measures are based on the same definitions as those published for the United States:
U-1, persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-2, job losers & persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force;
U-3, total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (this is the definition used for the official unemployment rate);
U-4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers;
U-5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers; &
U-6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
U3 = Official unemployment rate
Note: Rates are at a 4-quarter moving-average basis. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

8. Diversified or Not? Nevada’s Economy
Employment by Industry
Nevada
U.S.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG.

9. REBUILD

10. Diversified or Not. , cont
Diversified or Not?, cont.: Location Quotients Nevada’s Economy, Last 10 Years
Mature, healthy sectors
Mature sectors that are losing ground
Sectors that need attention
Potential up-and-coming sectors 10
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Analyzed by RCG.

11. SEQUESTRATION & TRANSPORTATION FUNDING

12. Nevada Department of Transportation Programs: FFY 2012 Enacted, (,000)
Airport Improvement Program
$52,637
FHWA - Bridge Replacement & Rehabilitation
$18,219
FHWA - Congestion Mitigation & Air Quality
$33,504
FHWA - Coordinated Border Infrastructure Program $0
FHWA - Equity Bonus
$23,106
FHWA - High Priority Projects
FHWA - Highway Safety Improvement Program
$15,069
FHWA - Interstate Maintenance
$81,451
FHWA - Metropolitan Planning
$2,363
FHWA - National Highway Performance Program
FHWA - National Highway System
$90,486
FHWA - Railway Highway Crossings
$1,027
FHWA - Safe Routes to School
$1,360
FHWA - Surface Transportation Program
$83,885
FHWA - Territorial & Puerto Rico Highway Programs
FHWA - Transportation Alternatives
FHWA - Recreational Trails
$1,268
FTA - Bus & Bus Facilities
$5,918
FTA - Capital Investment Grants (New Starts)
FTA - Fixed Guideway Modernization
FTA - Urbanized Area Formula
$30,268
FTA - Nonurbanized Area Formula
$4,901
FTA - Capital Assistance for the Elderly & Disabled
FTA - Job Access & Reverse Commute
$1,108
State & Community Highway Safety
$1,868
Total
$449,463 12

13. Nevada Department of Transportation Programs: FFY 2012 Enacted
Source: 2013 FFIS Federal Funds Information for States. 13

14. Federal Transfers to Nevada & Impact of Sequester to Nevada Department of Transportation, (,000)
Federal Transportation Transfers to Nevada: FFY 2006 – FFY 2021
Enacted
Forecast
After Sequester
FFY = Federal Fiscal Year. Sources: 2013 FFIS Federal Funds Information for States; Analyzed by RCG Economics.

15. RECOVER

16. Nevada’s future actually looks pretty bright.
Nevada Population/Employment Counts & Forecasts
Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ; Woods & Poole.

17. Nevada’s future actually looks pretty bright Part 2
Nevada/U.S. Population & Employment Growth. 10-year CAAGR*
10-year CAAGR
Trends
Forecasts
NV Population
4.2%
5.2%
3.0%
1.7%
1.6%
1.3%
NV Employment
4.5%
1.8%
US Population
0.9%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
US Employment
2.0%
0.4%
*Growth rates shown are in terms of compound average annual growth rate (CAAGR), in % change. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ; Woods & Poole. 17

18. Contact: John Restrepo 702-967-3188 jrestrepo@rcg1.com www.rcg1.com