1. National reforestation, regional deforestation
National reforestation, regional deforestation? Cross-border timber trade and forest transition in Vietnam
Master thesis (NMBU/UMB, 2013) Nhung Lu Rots

2. Motives
Clarify the link between deforestation in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia and the wood trade in the region (EIA, 2008, 2011, 2012).
Learn more about mitigation effects of climate change projects and the carbon leakage problem in forestry sector (Meyfroidt et al., 2010).

3. Carbon leakage – REDD+
Leakage means that GHGs emission reduction in one area can contribute to more emission at another location, either inside or outside a particular territory (Angelsen et al., 2012).
Carbon leakage can be both positive and negative (Aukland et al., Perman et al., 2003; Romer, 2012).

4. Research objectives
Look for evidences of carbon leakage from Vietnam to Laos and Cambodia
Find the link between forest conservation, wood trade and leakage in Indochina
Research questions
1) Do Vietnamese provinces that border Laos or Cambodia experience more or less deforestation than provinces that do not border these countries; and do they experience more or less reforestation?
2) What are the factors that contribute to deforestation and reforestation in the Vietnamese borderland?

5. Modelling & Variable specification
Whether labour is used for timber trade across border or for tree planting?
Whether new border checkpoints have been opened in order to facilitate the timber trade?
Main variables:
Deforestation and reforestation: dependent variables
Border checkpoint density: independent variable

6. Method Quantitative research
- Statistic analysis of panel data for the period
- Modelling: Tobit models (Wooldridge, 2011).
Two interviews with border checkpoint officials

7. Findings
There is evidence of leakage from Vietnam to Laos and Cambodia
- Provinces that border Laos and Cambodia have less reforestation than other provinces. The result is statically significant

8. Findings Main factors that have impact on forests in the borderland
Investment & trade institutions
Wood production
Population
Agriculture activities and income

9. Current research interests
Aquaculture, climate change and forest management in the Mekong Delta.
Saline intrusion and implications for pangasius production
Mangrove integrated shrimp production and sustainable farming practices
Environmental disaster due to toxic waste and its impact on sustainable food consumption and aquaculture production in Vietnam.

11. References
Angelsen, A. (2007). Forest cover change in space and time: Combining the von Thünen and forest transition. World Bank policy research working paper No Retrieved 14 March 2013 from
Angelsen, A., Brockhaus M., Sunderlin, W. D., & Verchot, L. V. (eds.) (2012). Analysing REDD+: Challenge and choices. Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).
Aukland, L., Moura-Costa, P., & Brown, S (2003). A conceptual framework and its application for addressing leakage: The case of avoided deforestation. Climate Policy, 3(2), 123–136.
EIA. (2012). Checkpoints: How powerful interest groups continue to undermine forest governance in Laos. London, UK: Environmental Investigation Agency.
EIA (2011). Crossroads: The Illicit Timber Trade Between Laos and Vietnam. London, UK: Environmental Investigation Agency.
EIA (2008). Borderlines: Vietnam’s booming furniture industry and timber smuggling in the Mekong Region. London, UK: Environmental Investigation Agency.
Meyfroidt, P., Rudel, T. K., & Lambin, E. F. (2010). Forest transitions, trade, and the global displacement of land use. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 107(49), 20917–22.
Perman, R., Ma, Y., McGilvray, J., & Common, C. (2003). Natural Resource and Environmental Economics. 3rd edition. Harlow, UK: Pearson Education.
Romer, D. (2012). Advanced macroeconomics. 4th edition. New York: McGraw-Hill Higher Education.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2011). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. 4th edition. USA.: South-Western Cengage Learning.