1. MODULE 11 – SCENARIO PLANNING
Stage 2 – Leadership for Strategy

2. Module Overview Learning Objectives Learning Outcomes
To introduce the method for developing dynamic scenarios and initiating inclusive strategic dialogues for strategic planning and problem solving.
Learning Outcomes
Participants understand dynamic and systemic scenario planning and experience its creative process.
Participants learn to approach organisational challenges with strategic thinking and action.
Participants understand the key role of strategic conversations in (a) creating a learning organisation and (b) enhancing the motivation and effectiveness of staff and partners.
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

3. Module Structure Interactive Introduction
Group Exercise – Scenario planning exercise
Discussion – Discussing the role of strategic conversations in communities and organisations
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

4. Working Definitions Scenario Dynamic scenario planning
In the dynamic scenario planning method we introduce “scenarios are not forecasts but a set of structurally different futures conceived through a process of casual, rather than probabilistic thinking” is a story line that explores different key derivers of events and establishes a casual relation among them.”
Dynamic scenario planning
Dynamic scenario planning is a process of thinking through models of possible futures that are casual and structurally different. Scenario planning involves system thinking and allows organizations to move away from linear planning processes and help them better understand and prepare for changes in the external environment. .
Strategic conversation
Strategic conversation is an on- going conversation process about strategic issues that is established for the continuous improvement of the organizational functioning. When effective it connects formal and informal spaces of communication within the organization and creates a collective experience, accepted and shared theories-in use, interpretations that are foundations for joint action.
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

5. EXERCISES

6. Interactive Introduction
Exercise 1
Interactive Introduction
Discuss the strengths and weaknesses of planning processes you know, and the planning methods you use in your community planning;
After small group discussions, report the typical weaknesses of actual planning processes in a plenary discussion.
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

7. Group Exercise – Scenario planning exercise
In groups, develop scenarios for an ambitious public service improvement programme.
During a plenary session present and compare scenarios, identify the drivers in the different scenarios and discuss how much the understanding of key drivers of events can help resilience for local strategies and power to actions.
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

8. Exercise 3
Discussion – Discussing the role of strategic conversations in communities and organisations
Reflect on how could such scenario processes be implemented in your organisations and on the role strategic conversations would play in organisational development and effectiveness.
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

9. SCENARIO PLANNING (previous materials)

10. Dynamic approach
The environment is dynamic; on-going adjustments to plans are essential.
Strategic thinking is first step in strategic planning.
It must be based on:
What is important for the community / municipal organisation
Engagement of all staff, local people and organisations
Shared view of the future
Experience
It will facilitate flexibility and growth
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

11. Scenario planning
Supports strategic thinking around a plausible future for the municipality
Encourages development of a “learning organisation”
Supports search for solutions in an uncertain context
Builds wide consensus and learning
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

12. Secrets of scenario planning
In a changing environment, the process of developing a strategy is more important than the plan; it is an on-going activity
The value of “strategic conversations”:
Creativity and harnessing energies
Connecting formal and informal discussions
Creating consensus through:
Shared experience
Agreed analysis and evaluation
Agreement on direction and action
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

13. Leadership role VISION: a view of a credible and attractive future
SENSE OF PURPOSE: strengthens a sense of direction based on (a) a set of values, (b) the determination to achieve the vision (c) the energy that will be required
LEARNING: enables staff to contribute their best to the delivery of the vision
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

14. The leadership challenge
To create effective and open communication and commitment
Engage and encourage staff, local people and organisations to reflect on the future
Generate motivation to make the extra steps for a desired future
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning

15. Strategic leadership skills
Making sense of the environment
Creating understanding of the changing context of the work of the municipality
Creating a roadmap towards the future
Relating to stakeholders
Building relationships based on trust and partnership-working within and outside the organisation
Generating a vision
Creating credible and compelling images of a future that both the municipality and local people/organisations want to create together
Promoting creativity
Developing new ways of approaching tasks and overcoming obstacles
Stage 2
Module 11 – Scenario Planning