1. The Logic of Scientific Causal Inference
An Introduction to Designing Social Inquiry

2. Learning goals Overview of the class
Overview of the paper for the class

3. Logic of Scientific Inquiry
Inter-subjective Standards
Mathematics
Logic
Subjective Standards
Religion
Normative philosophy

4. What is the job of a social scientist?
To try to use whatever tools we have at our disposal to prove ourselves wrong.
Tools:
Logic
Empirical observation
Try to disprove our theory as much as possible
Unfortunately, we cannot prove anything
Always estimate the level of uncertainty in any claim
There is always uncertainty; it is not a death knell

5. You need a dependent variable
What causes ‘y’ to vary?
The ‘y’ is your dependent variable
The causes of y are your independent variables
The variables must be measured along the same units, in this class, the units are people

6. Problems in social sciences, especially when studying people
Bad theory
Maybe it is something else, related to your cause that is doing the causing
Maybe it is reverse causality
Maybe there is something important that intervenes between the two variables
Maybe the cause works in one condition but not another
Bad measures
Some aspects are not intersubjective

7. The Research Question: Why does ‘y’ vary?
Why do some people vote for Democrats and others for Republicans?
Why do some ethnic conflicts get resolved and other end in holocausts?
Why do some democracies remain stable and others fall apart?
Why are some economies successful and others are not?
Why do some civil conflicts result in revolution and others do not?
What causes some people to support the civil liberties of political enemies?
What causes some people to trust one another and others not to trust?
What causes some people to participate in their government?
What causes some people to bring litigation against their government?

8. Measurement

9. Continuous v. Discrete Measurement Inter-subjective Measures Inches
Degrees Fahrenheit
Dollars
Continuous v. Discrete

10. Concepts that are difficult to measure intersubjectively
Democracy
Self-Esteem
Ideology

11. Face Validity: Political Tolerance
Tolerance implies dislike. So, we do not ask Black Lives Matter activists whether they believe BLM activists should be allowed to march. So, you have to first ask who their worst political enemy is and then ask whether they should be allowed to march.
If your worst political enemy (i.e. Nazi’s, KKK) came to your town, would you support their right to march downtown?
Not support at all
Not really support
Somewhat support
Strongly support 1 2 3 4

12. High Variance
Mean

13. Low Variance
Mean

14. Political tolerance as an example DV
What causes some people to support civil liberties for those they dislike?
Dependent variables must vary

15. Variance: Political Tolerance40 35 30
Lowest 25
Low
Number of People 20
Medium 15
High 10
Highest 5
Political Tolerance

16. Correlation is not causality
Few Fire Trucks
Many Fire Trucks
Low Fire Damage 40 10
High Fire Damage
Fire trucks  fire damage
Storks  babies
Few storks
Many storks
Low births 40 10
High births

17. We will be spending a good part of the class figuring out how to differentiate evidence of a cause versus other reasons for correlation

18. Observational study
Survey research: what causes people to believe, perceive, value, or act
Questions that measure the concepts that are your DV and IVs must be in the same survey
Plot people who answer a question that is the dependent variable on the y axis
Plot an independent variable on the x axis

19. The Literature Review
You must, while developing your causal theories, find the relevant literature
The goal is to go wide
This means
Find literature about your DV – what have others found
Find literature about other DVs that are related to your DV
Find literature about your IVs – what other concepts are related to your IVs

20. What causes people to be politically tolerant?40 35 30
Lowest 25
Low 20
Medium 15
High 10
Highest 5
Political Tolerance

21. Correlation We attach values on one dimension to values on another
For political tolerance, one common theory (and finding) is that education causes political tolerance
Why would education cause political tolerance?
Are there other variables, related to education that might also cause political tolerance?

22. Statistical Relationships40 3 3 3 2 35 2 3 3 1 30 3 2 1 3
Education 3 1 25 1 3 3 3 1
Lowest
Low
Medium
High
Highest 3 3 20 2 2 2 3 2 4 3 2 2 3 2 4 3 15 2 1 4 3 4 2 1 2 3 4 3 4 3 2 2 3 2 4 5 10 1 1 2 3 4 3 4 5 5 4 4 1 1 2 2 3 3 5 5 5 5 5 1 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 2 1 3 2 3 4 3 5 5 4 5 1 1 2 3 3 3 5 4 5 5
Political Tolerance

23. Statistical Relationships6
Slope 5 4
Political Tolerance
Mean 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Education

24. Probability: Best Guess
What is the probable value of tolerance, given condition of education?
This is what the slope tells us. 6
Slope 5 4
Political Tolerance 3
Mean 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
Education

25. Controlling for all possible causes
This is not realistic, but this is the goal
For something to cause something, it must, in a sense, come first
If there is no time change in the research design, (and in our projects, there is not), then you must figure out other ways to capitalize on time variance
You can use theories of life development to determine what came first
Do not control for something that does not cause

26. Your project
You should find about ten-twelve non-demographic concepts that cause your DV
You have to find literature that helps establish that causality
Be critical of that literature
Identify something that is nonobvious
Nonobviousness is related to falsifiability
Be skeptical of your finding
Figure out what it means that your nonobvious concept causes your DV