1. Denis Pesche, CIRAD 2Oth March, 2017
Fostering employment through territorial development Brussels Development Briefing no. 48 “Strengthening rural livelihoods in the face of rapid urbanisation in Africa”
Denis Pesche, CIRAD
2Oth March, 2017
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2. This presentation is centered on the NEPAD Atlas, (second edition) but mobilize also
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3. 20st March, 2017

4. A demographic challenge…
Population increase among world regions and countries: past and future
In the next 40 years: B people in SSA
and M in North Africa
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5. A remaining importance of rural population
With the exception of North Africa, South Africa and several countries in the Gulf of Guinea: 60% of the population is rural
The majority of SSA population will remain rural till the mid- 2040s
Nearly 1 B rural residents in 2050 (+350 M)
Quelles sources et quelles hypothèses pour ces projections ?
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6. 20th March, 2017

7. A common employment challenge
Yearly youth cohort = 23 M today, 33 M in 2030
In the next 15 years, 440 M youth will enter the “labor market”
Nigeria (70 M)
Ethiopia (40 M)
Egypt (28 M)
Most of them will live in rural areas
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8. Youth face a very limited economic diversification…
SSA’s urbanization occurred without industrialization
Consequences are:
The remaining role of agriculture, extractive industries and informal services in GDP
The importance of informal employment (self-employment and farming)
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9. An important factor: the densification of links between towns and the countryside

10. The African equation
African countries face the challenges of an incipient economic and an incomplete demographic transition
These two historical challenges are faced in today’s world characterized by globalization and climate change
What can be the adequate and effective answers knowing that there will not be duplication of past “transformation pathways”
How to deal with poorly diversified economic structures and a growing labor force?
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11. The african equation at local level : Mali and Senegal
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12. Ségou, Mali 62 504 km2 2,8 millions people
total fertility rate 6,6 (2010)
3 urban towns (Ségou, Niono, San)
A large irrigated system: Office du Niger
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13. Ségou, Mali The demographic challenge TFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035
4,583 millions
The demographic challenge
TFR: 6,6 in 2010, 4,6 in 2035
2,763 millions
1,502 millions
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1993
2015
2035

14. Ségou, Mali
1987
2009
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15. Ségou, Mali The employment challenge
new workers in 2015  in 2035
More than 1 million in 20 years
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16. Ségou, Mali
1987
2009
Failure of industrialization, development of services and return to agriculture (2011; conflict)
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17. Job creation projections in Ségou
1,000,000 jobs to be created between now and 2035
In 2012, 84% of jobs were in the primary sector (agriculture, livestock, forestry)
What will the sources of employment be in 2035?
In 2012, there were close to 85,000 non-agricultural jobs
In 2035 :
Agricultural production
Agri-activities (downstream, upstream)
Rural salaried workforce
Others?…
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18. Senegal river delta
Agribusiness is dynamic and has recently accelerated
What is the potential for job creation according to the agricultural models?
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19. Senhuile
WAF
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20. Senhuile
Senegalese and Italian capital has been invested in 2010 and then in 2012
26,000 and then 10,000 ha have been allocated, 1150 cultivated in 2016 (maize, rice, soya)
High degree of mechanisation
Salaried workforce of 180 (25 DK, 70 security…)
Uncertain future (areas, crops, jobs…)
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21. 20th March, 2017

22. WAF Created in 2011 – UK/RSA capital
Modest size and return (200 ha ha/RSE)
Market gardening for export (onions, radishes)
Model firmly based on local employment
A success story, PDIDAS
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23. WAF
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24. 20th March, 2017

25. Jérémy Bourgoin, 2017, CIRAD/ISRA
Senhuile : mechanised system, 0.13 jobs/ha (including 45% security…)
Family farms average: 0.78 permanent jobs and 2.53 temporary jobs per ha.
13,000 farms (Dagana department).
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26. Toward a new Rural (Territorial) Development paradigm…
Governance
Multisectorial approaches
Infrastructures
Urban/rural linkages
Inclusive policies
Gender
Demographic driver
Sustainability
(based on OCDE, 2016)
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27. Thank you for your attention
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