1. Hillsborough County Schools Long Range School Plan
April 26, 2017

2. Background Economic downturn followed by recovery period
Study to address Growth Management issues:
Future growth levels, timing & location
Student generation rates
Ability to accommodate new students
Identify and prioritize future expansion sites by school level
Prepare a Business Plan

3. Summary/Key Findings Annual Growth rate of 1.3% through 2045
Results in an average of 10,000 residential permits per year
Most of this growth is in South County
Expect 5,400 new students into District each year
Student generation of all homes vs. new homes
Impact of Charter Schools
1,350 of new students estimated to be absorbed by charter schools
Most of this is elementary and middle students
Three planning areas
Minimum vs. Probable Scenarios
Use of Portables/Redistricting
Maintenance backlog / Debt
Need for new revenue sources

4. Minimum Scenario Assumptions:
Schools are 200% of capacity prior to new construction
Heavy portable usage
Frequent redistricting
Potential concurrency mitigation
Operational changes
Co-teaching
Dual sessions

5. Probable Scenario Assumptions:
Schools are 150% of capacity prior to new construction
Limited available capacity in surrounding schools to cover deficiency
Reduced portable use
Limited redistricting
Some operational changes
Co-teaching

6. Summary/Key Findings Total Schools Type Min Probable Elem 14 25 Middle
School Needs
North/West
Type Min Prob.
ES 0 1
MS 0 0
HS 0 0
Total 0 1
School Needs North/East
Type Min Probable
ES 3 5
MS 0 0
HS 0 1
Total 3 6
Total Schools
Type
Min
Probable
Elem 14 25
Middle 3 5
High 6 8
Total 23 38
NK: What year is this map for? All three, 2022, 27, and 32 appear on clicks (Bottom Left Corner)
2017: 98% System Capacity
2022: Doby (105% System Capacity)
2027: Sessums, Doby, Reddick, Knights and Frost (109% System Capacity)
2032: Doby (2), Reddick, Cypress Creek, Stowers, Summerfield Crossings, Summerfield Elem and Knights (110% System Capacity)
School Needs - South
Type Min Probable
ES 11 19
MS 3 5
HS 6 7
Total 20 31

7. Historical and Projected Growth for Hillsborough and Florida
Avg. Annual Population Change
HC = 2.2%
FL = 2.5%
Avg. Population Added
HC = 17,000
FL = 310,000
Avg. Annual Population Change
HC = 1.3%
FL = 1.0%
Avg. Population Added
HC = 22,000
FL = 244,000
NK: Add average number of people added in earlier years vs. going forward

8. Permitting Hillsborough County Permitting All homes (SFR + MFR)
10,000 Units per Year
All homes (SFR + MFR)

9. Traditional Schools Built
Schools Built vs. Population Growth (Historical)
Average of 3 Schools per Year
Average of 5 Schools per Year
Updated 3/30/17
Min. # Schools 1.5 / Year

10. Student Generation Rates Traditional Students
Comparison - All Homes to Homes Built
Residential Land Use
All Homes
Homes Built (2000+)
% Change
Single Family Detached
0.415
0.555
34%
Townhouse
0.235
0.247 5%
Mobile Home
0.346
-29%
Multi-Family
0.206
0.183
-11%
Total/Weighted Avg.
0.334
0.386
16%

11. Charter Students Ratio of Charter to Traditional Students
2014+ Average = 9%
Average = 6%
Average = 2%
Updated 3/30/17

12. Charter Students Charter Students Added by School Level
Based on distribution of Charter Schools SGR
Type
Charter Schools SGR
% Used in Projections
Traditional SGR%
Elementary
0.015
55%
49%
Middle
0.009
30%
21%
High
0.004
15%
Total/ Weighted Avg.
0.028
100%

13. Summary of Traditional Schools Needed
Total Schools ( )
Area
Minimum
Probable
Countywide 23 38
North/West 1
North/East 3 6
South 20 31
Average Schools per Year
Area/Time Frame
Minimum
Probable
Countywide
1.5
2.5
Historical: 3 5

14. Summary/Key Findings Maintenance/Debt Cost vs. Available Revenues
( )
Category
Figure
Maintenance Needs
$2.51 B
Debt Service Payments
$1.01 B
Total Cost
$3.52 B
Available Revenue:
Capital Millage
$1.85 B
Community Investment Tax
$0.47 B
Total Revenue
$2.32 B
Shortfall
-$1.20 B

15. New Capacity Needs vs. Available Funding
Summary/Key Findings
New Capacity Needs vs. Available Funding
( )
Category
Minimum
Probable
New School Capacity Cost
$0.77 B
$1.18 B
Portables*
$0.23 B
$0.03 B
Total Cost
$1.00 B
$1.21 B
Impact Fees at Current Rate
$0.57 B
Shortfall
-$0.43 B
-$0.64 B
Impact Fees at Increased Rate
$0.89 B
-$0.11 B
-$0.32 B
Potential School Capital Surtax
$1.89 B
* Portables cannot be funded with impact fee revenues.

16. Community Investment Tax

17. School Capital Outlay Surtax

18. Summary/Key Findings Total Schools Type Min Probable Elem 14 25 Middle
School Needs
North/West
Type Min Prob.
ES 0 1
MS 0 0
HS 0 0
Total 0 1
School Needs North/East
Type Min Probable
ES 3 5
MS 0 0
HS 0 1
Total 3 6
Total Schools
Type
Min
Probable
Elem 14 25
Middle 3 5
High 6 8
Total 23 38
NK: What year is this map for? All three, 2022, 27, and 32 appear on clicks (Bottom Left Corner)
2017: 98% System Capacity
2022: Doby (105% System Capacity)
2027: Sessums, Doby, Reddick, Knights and Frost (109% System Capacity)
2032: Doby (2), Reddick, Cypress Creek, Stowers, Summerfield Crossings, Summerfield Elem and Knights (110% System Capacity)
School Needs - South
Type Min Probable
ES 11 19
MS 3 5
HS 6 7
Total 20 31

19. The complete presentation can be found at: