1. Flemish coast & BPNS Dr. Frank Maes
Ghent, 12 May 2009

2. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Geographical Location

3. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea & coast Geographical Location

4. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea (BPNS) & Flemish coast Geographical Location
Over 85 % of the coast is below 5 m elevation, which places it at increased risk of sea level rise and extreme weather events
The coastal plain is about 65 km long and 10 to 15 km wide, and comprises beach, dunes and polders. On the seaward side, on the shallow continental shelf, we find numerous sandbanks.
There are 10 coastal municipalities
60% of the coastline is protected by artificial coastal defence structures (e.g. groins, seawalls, beach groins, breakwaters)
The remaining 40% is protected by soft and dynamic coastal defence (e.g. dry beach elevation, beach nourishment, planting of brushwood, sand fences, planting of marram grass)
About 20 % of the coastline is sedimentary, 40 % is erosive and the remaining part is relatively stable.

5. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Geographical Location

6. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Geographical Location

7. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Geographical Location

8. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Management framework
Involvement of relevant authorities: competences

9. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Multi-level government
Flemish competences:
The beach
Coastal defence
Tourism/ recreation
Ports
Pilotage
Nature protection …
Flemish competences:
Fisheries
Aquaculture
Permits for dredging …
Federal competences:
Marine Environment Protection
Concessions, permits and monitoring wind turbines at sea
Shipping
Sand and gravel extraction
Scientific research …
Province of West Flanders
Coordination ICZM
Emergency planning
Polders
10 coastal municipalities
Involvement of relevant authorities: competences

10. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea & beaches Historical Background of Expert Couplet MI-MDK
Almost 8 years of cooperation related to legal matters, mainly studies:
1. legal basis Coordination Centre ICZM and cooperation on ICZM with all stakeholders
2. beach nourishment Ostend and EIA
3. initial development of a codex on marine legislation
4. concession policy for yacht clubs at the Flemish coast
5. expert couplet in COREPOINT
MDK has a long lasting cooperation with Ghent University in legal, ecological (marine biology) and technical (civil engineering) matters

11. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Existing Management and Climate Change strategies
The coordination centre for Integrated Coastal Zone Management
The global aim is supported by three strategic objectives: 1. Collaborate to implement the recommendation of the European Parliament and the Council of May 30th 2002 concerning the implementation of integrated management of coastal regions in Europe 2. Promote the integration of planning and politics in the coastal region 3. Create a basis for integrated coastal zone management
National Climate Plan only concerning emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol without mentioning adaptation
Flemish Climate Plan related to emission reduction
Flemish Climate Plan also related to adaptation:
assessment of the impacts of climate change
a cost-effective Flemish Adaptation Plan will be developed

12. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Existing adaptation strategies
Currently no existing adaptation strategies
coastal defence policy (annual monitoring, sand nourishment program, five-year safety review)
In the past – hard coastal defence
< 70 - restoration of natural dynamics (sand nourishment and managed retreat, where possible)
Development of coastal security plan (Masterplan 2050) (MDK)
Miguel

13. CLIMAR project Belgian Science Policy (MI)
Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies
CLIMAR project Belgian Science Policy (MI)
“Evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for marine activities”
Objective
Modelling of climate change induced primary and secondary impacts for the BPNS (case studies: fisheries and coastal defence)
Identification of adaptation scenarios/measures for the two case studies
Development of a sustainable adaptation strategy
Takes into account socio-economic effects
MDK and MI share information for the development of an adaptation strategy for the BPNS

14. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies
Climate change scenarios 2100 (2040) M M+ W W+
Worst
Air temperature
+ 2°C
+ 4°C
Change air circulation No
Yes
Winter Precipitation
+ 8%
+ 14%
+ 16%
+ 28%
Wind Velocity
0 %
+ 4%
- 2%
Summer precipitation
+ 6%
- 20%
+ 12%
- 40%
Sea water temperature
+ 2,5°C
+ 3,5°C
Mean Sea level
+ 60 cm
+ 93 cm
+ 200 cm

15. Identifying the local drivers/issues
Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies
Identifying the local drivers/issues
Issues
What is already happening?
What could happen?
(For Belgium )
temperature
global average temperature ° C (since 1850)
+ 1°C to 2°C (2040); + 2°C to 4°C (2100)
seawater temperature
° C (since 1955)
+ 1,2°C to 1.7°C (2040);
+ 2.5°C to 3.5°C (2100)
Sea level
1.69 mm per year from 1927 ;
3 mm per year from 1993 to 2006.
m to 0.50 m (2040);
m to 2m (2100)
storms and waves
average annual wind speed +10% ( ) (for Belgium)
increase from west southwest winds (for Belgium)
storms will occur more frequently and more severe, this means that the wave height will increase
acidification
increasing acidity in surface waters due to increasing atmospheric CO ₂
further acidification, this adversely affect crustaceans and shellfish
coastal erosion
40% of the coastline is erosive,
20% is sedimentary
rising sea levels/ increasing storms can worsen the erosion and sedimentation process

16. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Developing adaptation strategies/ Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009)
Identifying the local drivers/issues
Issues
What is already happening?
What could happen?
(For Belgium )
harmful algal blooms
Harmful algal blooms has increased in recent years in the northeast of the Atlantic Ocean
An increase in summer temperature by up to 4 ° C by 2100 will lead to a doubling of potentially harmful algal blooms
fishing
Important changes in plankton composition, have led the past decades to a poor food environment for the larvae of cod
northward shift of marine species
cod, haddock and halibut will disappear
anchovies, sardines and mullet will occur
wetlands
“Zwin” already lose natural value by the encroachment of silting of the old Sincfal-channel
relocation of current wetlands; due to sea level rises or wetlands will disappear (relocation not possible)
seabirds
Changes in phytoplankton/zooplankton, have a direct impact on the sandeel population which affects the reproductive success of different seabirds such as puffin

17. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009)
Based on the guidance note (round-table discussion)
Audience
Invitations were sent to all sectors
Only 18 participants (2 of the Flemish government, 1 for water recreation, 1 of the ports/shipping, 1 for fisheries, 1 for dredging, 1 for nature conservation and 10 researchers)
No representatives for the local authorities/federal government/province
No representatives for the coastguard, shipping assistance, energy sector, sand and gravel extraction and tourism
some caution should be used when using the results of the workshop, at first not all sectors were present and secondly, the presence within the sector was relatively limited
Resources
Template (distributed in advance) with climate change issues and impacts identified on the basis of scientific research

18. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009)
Questions asked
How do coastal- and marine-stakeholders in their sector experience the impacts of climate change today?
Which impacts of climate change will affect the sector in the future according to coastal- and marine-stakeholders?
Over what period will these impacts occur according to coastal- and marine-stakeholders (short-, medium- or long-term)?
What impact will most affect the sector?
How well is the sector equipped to deal with these impacts?

19. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on climate change issues and drivers (April 2009)
Conclusion
Raising awareness about the need to adapt (sectors already taking some adaptation measures)
Some changes are already visible but it is not always clear what the cause is of these changes (e.g. More storms; more marine mammals like seals and dolphins; more warm water species like anchovies, Japanese oyster, seahorses, more sludge after a storm, contaminated mussels)
Some changes are positive others are negative depending on the sector
Some sectors will be more affected by climate change impacts than others
For instance fisheries will be affected by 90% of the climate change impacts, wile the shipping industry will be less affected by climate change impacts (like changes in fish population, harmful algal bloom, changes in temperature etc.)
Need for more cooperation with the scientific sector (need to know the impacts of climate change, to efficiently adapt)

20. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on coastal defence and adaptation measures (December 2008)
Central question of the workshop: “How can we adapt to the increasing risk of flooding due to climate change?”
Proposed adaptation measures
Managed retreat:
Advantages: positive effect on the biodiversity and the sedimentation process;
Disadvantages: lack of suitable land due to dispersed habitation, cultural-historical objections to the excavation and raise of the polders and more salinization of agricultural land.
Sand embankment into the sea: this idea may take various forms (creation of one or more islands before the coastline, raising of existing sand banks, extending the coastline by sand nourishment)
Advantages: protection of the hinterland, possibility for aquaculture or recreation (diving), biological surplus value that can be created, possibility of introducing new technologies (absorbing wave energy to produce green energy)

21. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on coastal defence and adaptation measures (December 2008)
Dike in dune: an elevated dike will be constructed and then covered with sand
Advantages: biological surplus
Disadvantages: loss of view at sea
Emergency plan: A rapid evacuation of the ground floor should be possible (within 15 minutes) and encouraging pile dwellings in flood areas.
Disadvantages: all shops and parking space should be on the first floor
Conclusions
Combination of different measures is regarded as the most effective.
Inland solutions seem difficult along our coast because of a shortage of space.
Many possibilities for win-win situations with energy extraction, recreation, aquaculture,...
Cost-benefit analysis is an important tool in evaluating adaptation measures and should be applied

22. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Workshop on the impact of climate changes on the fisheries sector (December 2008)
Conclusions
The complexity of the Belgian sea fisheries sector and the ecosystem hamper the assessment of the impacts of climate change and the development of adaptation strategies, especially on the long-term.
The Belgian fisheries fleet has a future, yet diversification and reengineering is needed.
The ecological, economical and social aspects are equally important for the development of the sea fisheries into a sustainable activity.

23. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Future scenario building
Building adaptation scenarios for two case studies (fisheries and coastal defence) + using these for extrapolation to other marine ecosystem in general and to related socio-economic activities)
Outcomes of the workshop of interest to know how the stakeholders looking towards adaptation and to prioritise responses
Currently working on the development of socio-economic scenarios
Other partners developing socio-economic scenarios? (share information)
Climate change scenarios combined with socio-economic scenarios basis for the developing of adaptation scenarios

24. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Future scenario building
The coordination centre for Integrated Coastal Zone Management is important for the future management of are site
fixed structure
Delivering visualisation tool (kustatlas/

25. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Learning to adapt
Tools will be tested by means of workshops with stakeholder participation, by use, ...
We are not planning to hold a trainers workshop unless a clear demand from the partners
As responsible partner for action 4.4, we are in a good position to assess the ability of local planning/policy/legislation to deal with future scenarios
We will deliver a working document on climate change proofing of policies + assessment of proofing techniques (distributed to all the partners)
Experience in climate change proofing of policies can be shared
Information on existing adaptation strategies and how they have been developed in each site can be very useful

26. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea Influencing change
The public, local governments and stakeholders be informed about the project at workshops, conferences, presentations of publications.
Te promotional bookmark of the project be distributed together with the website, as a source for further information
We do not have a poster of the project, it would be useful to have on to exhibit at conferences and workshops
Papers that have been made our send to coastnet (will they be published on the website as internal document?)
Are locale adaptive management strategy will be published within the CLIMAR project

27. Study Site Presentation – Belgian Part of the North Sea
More information of our site can be found on:
Maritime Spatial Planning BPNS “A flood of space”
Maritime Spatial Planning Europe
Thanks for your attention