1. EU-MED Agpol Annual Meeting 17-20 May Montpellier
TUNISIAN OLIVE OIL PRODUCT AND EXPORT POTENTIAL
Expert survey (first round results)
Dr. Boubaker KARRAY
Montpellier 18 May 2006

2. Plan
Evolution of the olive oil sector in Tunisia during “ ”: Preoccupant Situation
Methodology (SWOT and Delphi analysis): Implementation of the Expert survey
Results for the first round
Difficulties encountered

3. I O contribution in EU-MED Agpol project
(WP 5)
The general objective is to estimate the production and export
potential for Mediterranean agricultural systems within
tree and ten years using expert panels
For Tunisia, the objective is to estimate the olive oil
product and export potential within
five and ten years using expert panels

4. Evolution of the olive oil sector in Tunisia
during “ ”: Preoccupant Situation

5. Actual situation “ ”
Area : ha, 16% of world olive tree area (2nd position after Spain)
Olive Tree number: 60 millions, 6% of world olive tree number (7th position after Spain, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Morocco and Syria)
Olive oil production: 142 M tons: the 4th world producer (5%) after Spain, Italy and Greece
Olive oil export: 93 M tons: the 4th world exporter (7,8%) after Spain, Italy and Greece
Only 1% are bottled
Principal destination: EU market 89% of total export
Market share: 8,8% of EU market

6. Evolution since 1991 Production (M tons) 151 184 142 +/-
Production (M tons)
151
184
142
+/-
% of world Production
7,3
6,8
4,4*
Export (M tons)
136,7
112,5 93
% of world Export
19,3
12,5
7,8*
Export/Product 87 61
65,5
Export to EU (M tons)
117 97 83
% T export 86 89 +
% T EU import 25 15 10
% Extra EU import 91 72 60
Market share EU
17,2
12,1
8,8

7. Questions 1. Main internal and external factors that govern
the product and export potential of olive oil ?
2. Capacity to increase olive oil production
during the next five and ten years? (WP 5)
3. Capacity to increase olive oil export
during the next five and ten years? (WP 5)

8. Methodology (SWOT and Delphi analysis)
Implementation of the Expert survey

9. S W O T Methodology SWOT Analysis (question1) Delphi
Analysis (all questions)
intern S W
Expert panels (viable information)
Anonymous judgment
Iterative process (consensus after
two rounds)
extern O T

10. Meeting with all the experts
Problem formulation
Select of 23 experts
First round
Achieved
Statistical analysis
Second round
New responses
Statistical analysis
Meeting with all the experts
Final results

11. Composition of the expert panels of the Delphi investigation
(1st round)
Activity domain
Number of consulted experts
Number of returned
questionnaires for the 1st round %
Transformation 1
100
Administration (Technical service) 7 6
85.71
Research 4 3 75
Export 2
66.67
Transformation + Export 5 60
Production + Transformation + Export
Certificatory organism
Total 23 18
78.26

12. Results for the first round

13. Product potential 190 178 225 250 210 290 Production (2006-10)
Central value
Quartile1
Quartile 3
Production ( )
190
178
225
Production ( )
250
210
290
33.8 % for the first period
76 % for the second period

14. 1. Extension of olive trees irrigated area
2. Extension of olive trees area in dry with revision of densities
3. Revision of densities of old plantations
4. Promotion of hyper Intensive plantations
5. Increase of plantation outputs through the application of the good agricultural practices
6. Encouragement in favour of the Tunisian variety in intensive plantations
7. Concession of a direct help to producers
8. A strategy based on the scientific arguments, with clear objectives and mobilizing the human means and adequate materials.

15. Partial liberalization
Export potential
Partial liberalization
Scenario 1: Actual contingent (57165 M tons) will be 86 M tons with increase of quantity authorized in January, February and March
Central value
Quartile1
Quartile 3
Export not bottled ( ) 74 64 82
Export not bottled ( )
Export bottled ( )
Export bottled ( ) 76 4 8 69 2 5 80 10

16. Partial liberalization
Export potential
Partial liberalization
Scenario 2: Actual contingent (57165 M tons) will be 86 M tons without increase of quantity authorized in January, February and March
Central value
Quartile1
Quartile 3
Export not bottled ( ) 71 61 82
Export not bottled ( )
Export bottled ( )
Export bottled ( ) 76 5 8 69 3 80 6 15

17. Partial liberalization
Export potential
Partial liberalization
Scenario 3: Conservation of APT
Central value
Quartile1
Quartile 3
Export not bottled ( )
100 85
111
Export not bottled ( )
130
157
If this regime is not conserved, the decrease of export is estimated at 50% (negative effect)

18. Partial liberalization
Export potential
Partial liberalization
Scenario 4: Reduction of NPF tariff in normal regime: 20%
Central value
Quartile1
Quartile 3
Export not bottled ( ) 10 55
Export not bottled ( )
Export bottled ( )
Export bottled ( ) 13 2 5 63 8

19. Preference of partial liberalization
1. Increase of the contingent with increase of the monthly quantities in January, February and March.
2. Increase of the contingent without modification of its monthly distribution
3. Reduction of tariff in normal regime (20%)
4. Conservation of the Active Perfection Traffic regime (TPA)

20. Export potential Total liberalization
Central value
Quartile1
Quartile 3
Export not bottled ( )
148
100
166
Export not bottled ( )
Export bottled ( )
Export bottled ( )
191 5 15
169 4 7
212 10 18

21. Difficulties encountered
I would like to thank all the national experts which participate in this investigation questionnaire.
The main met difficulty is the unavailability of some experts.
They required more time to finish the first round. The character exceptional of the olive growing campaign was to the origin (increase of the olive price, uncertainty concerning the olive oil foreign market, export price).

22. Thank you for your attention