1. 23rd International Sustainable Development Research Society Conference
A Spatial Methodology for Transport Impedance Weightings in Celullar Automata Land-use Cover Change Models
Daniel Paez1 and Francisco Escobar2
1 Dpt. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Los Andes
2 Dpt. of Geology, Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Alcalá
23rd International Sustainable Development Research Society Conference
Bogota, 14 – 16 June 2017

2. 1. Context
Economic growth since Traffic congestion - Bogota in the top five
Lina Rozo,
Pollution Public Health issues

3. The Bogota Land Development Model (BoLD)
2. Introduction
Traffic congestion in the public and political debate
2015 Local elections – public transport proposals
Land-use shapes economy and society and vice versa
Objective of the project (funded by AFD)
To develop a Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) model for the year 2040 to evaluate the impact of public transport alternatives on the sustainability of the territory
The Bogota Land Development Model (BoLD)

4. 3. Methods
Study area
Bogota and the municipalities located to its West: Funza, Mosquera, Madrid, Focatativá, Cota and Soacha
7.5 million inhabitants (Bogota holds 6.5 million)

5. 3. Methods Technique Cellular automata-based model
Modelling software METRONAMICATM (RIKS)
Calibration
Future land demands
Current and future land zoning changes and suitability conditions (heritage, hydrology, environmental risks…)
Neighbouring relationships between land-uses
Accessibility analysis based on transport infrastructure.

6. 3. Methods Model graphic description Neighborhood Land-use – 2 datesTP
Derived
Products
(Indicators)
Zoning
Neighborhood
Accessibility
Suitability
Land-use – 2 dates
Simulated Land-use

7. 3. Methods
Data

8. 3. Methods
Scenarios
Stakeholders workshop and interviews with administration officials

9. 3. Methods – Scenarios: new roads / new train; Reserve
Transmilenio
Current Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system in Bogota
Guillermo Torres (Revista Semana). Available at
Van der Hammen reserve
El Tiempo (

10. 3. Methods Estimating future land demands (Business as usual)
Forecast population growth (DANE, National Agency for Statistics)
Forecast economic growth (Bank of the Republic and FENALCO)

11. 3. Methods An innovative proposal for model calibration
Over-time Spatial Decay Calculation (OSDC)

12. 4. Results

13. 2014

14. Scenario 1 Road development and reserve maintained - Increased commercial development along the proposed road - Additional industry in their surrounding areas - Industrial areas appear in the far West among farming zones

15. Scenario 2 Train development and reserve maintained - Residential and commercial development concentrates along proposed stations - This is particularly notorious in bordering areas between Bogota and the municipalities.

16. Scenario 3 Road development and reserve urbanized - Similar trends than scenario 1 + invasion of natural reserve by medium-income residential and industrial

17. Scenario 4 Rail development and reserve urbanized - Similar trends than scenario 2 + invasion of natural reserve by medium-income residential and industrial

18. 5. Conclusion Supporting decision making; Objectives met
Integration of land management and public transport policies a more sustainable approach
Calibration issues and technical proposal (Accessibility Distance Decay Factor -ADDF- and Overtime Spatial Decay Calculation -OSDC-)
Limitations related to narrow view of scenarios

19. THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION
Thanks to:
Luis Alberto Rubio, UniAndes
Agence Française de Développement
SIGEOMOD20_20 (ref BIA P)
More info at:
D Páez and F Escobar (in press) “Urban transportation scenarios in a LUCC model: a case study in Bogota, Colombia”, in Camacho, Paegelow, Mas and Escobar (eds) Geomatic Approaches for Modeling Land Change Scenarios, Springer Int. Pub., 464 pp. s:
THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION