1. Implementation of South African climate change mitigation policy
Hilton Trollip & Michael Boulle
Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town
28 October 2016, Cape Town
COLLOQUIUM: Parliamentary Committee on Environmental Affairs

2. Outline What is implementation ? Main findings of research Conclusion
Paris agreement provides windows of opportunities to progress mitigation implementation ?

3. What do we mean by implementation?
 Mitigation measure:
Technologies, processes, and practices that contribute to mitigation, for example renewable energy technologies, waste minimization processes and public transport commuting practices.
Mitigation policy:
A course of action taken and/or mandated by a government, to enhance mitigation.
Examples: …support mechanisms for renewable energy supplies, carbon or energy taxes, and fuel efficiency standards for automobiles
 Mitigation policy is what government does to make actors undertake mitigation measures
IPCC definitions see slides at end

4.  Ambition Agenda  Implementation Agenda
Techno-economic analysis Political, public administration and political economy analysis

5. Windows and stream coupling
Problem firmly on agenda
coupled with
Generation of solutions
Favourable political stream
Examples
Peak Plateau Decline (PPD)
Climate Change Response White Paper (CCRWP)
How could climate change mitigation policy implementation take advantage of similar processes related to Paris agreement ?

6. CHALLENGES: data & quantitative analysis
“Information asymmetry”
Mandatory reporting
Peak Plateau Decline (PPD) and Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA)
Design of policy instruments
Operating policy instruments
Administering the carbon tax
Setting and Regulating Carbon Budgets
ONLY speak of challenges presented by lack of adequate data and quantitative analysis
Info asymmetry – shortage of emprirical data for actual emissions and MitPot analysis

7. Delays in implementation (to be expected?)
Tight deadlines set in Climate Change Response White Paper (CCRWP) in 2011
2013 – reporting regulations and data system
(“foundation of South African response”)
2013 – carbon budgets
‘Voetstoots’1 , ‘Rolls-Royce’ policies
In conjunction with voetstoots status also delayed by
Information asymmetry
Challenges to PPD and MPA
1 – Voetstoots: Drive it away and fix problems as they come up

8. Technical, institutional and political dependencies contribute to delays
Coordinated implementation of multiple measures
Technical: Reporting Regulations – Carbon Budgets, Carbon Tax – Carbon Budgets
Institutional: DoE data system vs. DEA data system
Political: Contradictions in different policies e.g. IPAP vs. NCCRWP – requires resolution at the Ministerial level

9. COP17 produced opportunity for White Paper but also rushed development of ambitious Voetstoots policies
Multiple streams and policy windows:
Successful establishment of PPD in agenda stream
Development of ‘solutions’ in solution stream
COP17 drives opening of opportunity with coupling of agenda, solution and political streams
The good: CCRWP published
(we could still be developing ‘perfect’ policies)
The challenge: under-developed solutions/policies
Accepting the realities of windows and authoritative decisions don’t necessariy happen when you have ‘perfect’ policies

10. Voluntary participation (?kick started by INDC… Paris)
In absence of data and regulations for mandatory carbon budgets
Some companies participating in DEA voluntary scheme,
Carbon budgets cover expected emissions with financially logical mitigation measures
Pollution Prevention Plans
Learning by doing: experience gained will be used to implement mandatory phase
Once again, progress, but real-world risks
Many information asymmetry challenges remain
DEA working with powerful interests to construct system
…Some aspects of a successful system pose threats to these powerful interests

11. Iron triangle
“special relationships between bureaucrats, committees and interest groups, which are alleged to be impenetrable from the outside” (Kingdon 2014:33)
“Because they are often concerned with protecting current benefits and prerogatives, they affect the governmental agenda more by blocking potential items than by promoting them. Rather than structuring a governmental agenda, interest groups often try to insert their preferred alternatives” (Kingdon 2014: 33)
Kingdon, J. W. (2014). Agendas, Alternatives and Public Policies (Second Edi). Pearson Education Limited

12. Iron Triangle

13. Opportunities provided by COP21
“Each Party shall prepare, communicate and maintain successive nationally determined contributions that it intends to achieve.
“Parties shall pursue domestic mitigation measures, with the aim of achieving the objectives of such contributions
“Each Party shall regularly provide the following information… Information necessary to track progress made in implementing and achieving its nationally determined contribution
“Information submitted by each Party under paragraphs 7 and 9 of this Article shall undergo a technical expert review

14. Conclusions
Implementation involves much more than ‘turning administrative handles: politics and interests are deeply involved
Significant steps in progress often involve an item/problem being firmly enough on agenda, there being a solution for the problem, and favourable condition in the ‘politics stream’
South Africa has taken substantial steps that can be explained as above
But there are delays and obstacles and risks
Additional steps are needed – using the thinking above can help create opportunities for these steps to taken
Risks need to be identified and managed

15. Thank you !

16. Definitions
Mitigation measure: “In climate policy, measures are technologies, processes, and practices that contribute to mitigation, for example renewable energy technologies, waste minimization processes and public transport commuting practices. WGIII” (IPCC, 2016a).
Mitigation policy: “Policies are a course of action taken and/or mandated by a government, e.g. to enhance mitigation. Examples of policies aimed at mitigation are support mechanisms for renewable energy supplies, carbon or energy taxes, and fuel efficiency standards for automobiles, WGIII” (IPCC, 2016a).
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2016a. Definition of Terms Used Within the DDC Pages: Policies (for mitigation of or adaptation to climate change). (accessed 23 October 2016)

17. Definitions: Implementation
Implementation For the purposes of this paper we define the starting point for South African climate change mitigation policy as the NCCRWP, and end points as when the mitigation policies in the NCCRWP, or other policies that emerge, are operational and begin to cause mitigation measures to be undertaken.