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Community Coordinated Modeling Center Masha Kuznetsova & CCMC Team

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Presentation on theme: "Community Coordinated Modeling Center Masha Kuznetsova & CCMC Team"— Presentation transcript:

1 Community Coordinated Modeling Center Masha Kuznetsova & CCMC Team
Assessment, dissemination & prototyping of space weather models, forecasting techniques and procedures at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center ESWW 2016 Masha Kuznetsova & CCMC Team

2 CCMC as a Hub for Operations Collaborative Development of
SW Analysis & Forecasting Capabilities: Research Models Data CCMC Operations

3 In-House Users & Partners
CCMC as a Hub for Collaborative Development of SWx Capabilities: Ingestion, Assessment, Dissemination, Prototyping Research Models Data CCMC NASA’s Missions In-House Users & Partners Operations

4 Expanding Community of Models (>80)
CCMC Assets & Services: WSA-ENLIL TIE-GCM SAMI-3 LFM-TING GUMICS WSA-ENLIL+Cone GMAT SAM LFM-MIX GIC WSA-ENLIL+EPREM CTIPe IDA4D AWSoM-R+EEGGL+CME OpenGGCM+CTIM WSA-ENLIL+SEPMOD USU-GAIM AWSoM EEGGL SWMF+RCM+deltaB RCM REleASE SWACI-TEC SWMF+RCM Fok.CIMI PFSS.Petrie PREDICCS SWMF+RCM+RBE ABBYNormal PFSS.Macneice Fok.RBE EXO Solar Wind SWMF+CRCM PFSS.Luhmann ANMHD UPOS RB NRLMSISE EMMREM LFM-MIX-TIEGCM AE-8/AP-8 GITM MAG4 UMASEP LANLstar CORHEL WINDMI AE-9/AP-9 PBMOD Tsyganenko IGRF ASAP ASSA AMOS Heltomo SMEI VERB TRIPL-DA Community of Models, Modelers and Users A number of modeling Chains and framework. Many models and modeling chains developed by large teams with broad involvement of distributed community. Weigel-deltaB Weimer IE WSA Heltomo IPS PS VP NLFFF SRPM Apex Weimer-deltaB BRYNTRN AACGM Ovation Prime MAGIC SNB3GEO IRI JB2008 DBM AMPS DTM GCR BON NOVICE SWMF.SH NAIRAS CARI-7 COSGROVE-PF DIPS Inner Magnetosphere Ionosphere/ Thermosphere Corona Heliosphere Magnetosphere

5 NASA/NSF Partnership for Collaborative SW Modeling
CCMC Support of LWS NASA/NSF Partnership for Collaborative SW Modeling The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model, G. Fisher et al. A Modular Capability of Community Modeling of Flares, CMEs, and their Interplanetary Impacts, S. Antiochos et al Integrated Real-Time Modeling System for Heliospheric Space Weather Forecasting, D. Odstrcil Corona-Solar Wind Energetic Particles Acceleration (C-SWEPA), N. Schwadron et al Medium Range Thermosphere Ionosphere Storm Forecast, A. Mannucci et al First-Principles Data Assimilation System for Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics, R. Schunk Integration of Kineticc Effects into Global Magnetosphere Models, A. Bhattacharjee et al

6 NASA/NSF Partnership for Collaborative SW Modeling
CCMC Support of LWS NASA/NSF Partnership for Collaborative SW Modeling The Coronal Global Evolutionary Model, G. Fisher et al. A Modular Capability of Community Modeling of Flares, CMEs, and their Interplanetary Impacts, S. Antiochos et al Integrated Real-Time Modeling System for Heliospheric Space Weather Forecasting, D. Odstrcil Corona-Solar Wind Energetic Particles Acceleration (C-SWEPA), N. Schwadron et al Medium Range Thermosphere Ionosphere Storm Forecast, A. Mannucci et al First-Principles Data Assimilation System for Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics, R. Schunk Integration of Kineticc Effects into Global Magnetosphere Models, A. Bhattacharjee et al

7 StereoCAT CME Analysis Tool
The First-Principles CME Space Weather Model is Available to the World. StereoCAT CME Analysis Tool Determine CME parameters & magnetic field strength of the flux rope from coronagraph images EEGGL Eruption Event Generator (Gibson & Low ) Define location and orientation of CME flux rope from synoptic magnetograms After almost 10 years of Enlil cone model. The first-principle CME eruption and propagation model is availbel to the world SWMF Team: Igor Sokolov, Meng Jin CCMC: R. Mullinix, A. Taktakishvili

8 SWMF/AWSoM-R + StereoCAT+EEGGL Ambient + CME + Synthetic Images
After almost 10 years of Enlil cone model. The first-principle CME eruption and propagation model is availbel to the world

9 SWMF/AWSoM-R + StereoCAT+EEGGL Ambient + CME + Synthetic Images

10 CCMC Core Principals Collaborative Environment & Inclusiveness: Provide opportunities & infrastructure to developers to expose their models to the world and demonstrate operational potential. Expertise: CCMC domain experts enable rapid evaluation & implementation of new models, ideas, techniques, procedures, experimental data sources. Trust: Full respect to the intellectual property of model developers and data providers. Flexibility: Non-bureaucratic, agile approach. CCMC is coordinated by the community (not vice versa). Prompt response to newly emerging trends and requirements: Leadership in community-wide projects. Just Do It! In-house users: Engage users into active participation in assessment, development & resarch projects.

11 International Working Group ( ICCMC )
A self-organizing non-bureaucratic entity built on CCMC’s experience, capabilities & philosophy To enable building of global network of web-based resources and open-source platforms to push frontiers of collaborative sw research, forecasting and education. To facilitate creation of highly dynamic and responsive international teams committed to active participation. To accelerate progress and maximize return on investments for established and newly emerging international efforts. To serve as a worldwide joint asset for organizations such as COSPAR, SCOSTEP, ILWS, and SW Ops centers. To assist with the realization of the current generation of international sw roadmaps and push frontiers for the next generation of strategic planning. Grassroot Push! advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops. Non-bureaucratic, free as possible from administrative and hierarchical constraints. Committed to active participation in community-wide projects.

12 CCMC International Community-Wide Projects International
(on-going and possibilities*) Assessment of space weather development - Forecasting Methods ScoreBoards - Events-Based World Challenges Ensemble modeling and data-driven ensemble pruning Assess and Interpolation Libraries, Metadata * Hands-on Education: - Space Weather Bootcamps - Space Weather World Relay * Runs-on-Request World System* International CCMC advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops. Non-bureaucratic, free as possible from administrative and hierarchical constraints. Committed to active participation in community-wide projects.

13 International CCMC – LWS
Workshop Assessment of Space Weather Development: Understanding, Operational Readiness, Forecasting Skills. When: April 3-7, 2017 Where: TBD ( near KSC, Florida ?) What: Assess current capabilities based on Event-based World Challenges & ScoreBoards. Agree on metrics, metadata. Identify a path forward. Hands-on working groups. Discussions. Deliverables. Take advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops. Non-bureaucratic, free as possible from administrative and hierarchical constraints. Committed to active participation in community-wide projects. advantage of opportunities for in-person meetings at international conferences and workshops.

14 Supplementary Material
We need to build upon on existing successes and capabilities. We should not ignore what we have now. We can talk forever. Hands-on activities and joint work is the best path to success.

15 Real-Time Scoreboards & Event-Based World Challenges
Flare forecast Challenge + Scoreboard Solar and geomagnetic indices CME arrival Challenge+ Scoreboard Solar wind parameters at L1 (Ambient, CIRs, CMEs) SEP Event-based Challenge + Scoreboard Full Disk EUV + Synthetic Heliographic + Coronagraph (SHINE Challenge) Ground Magnetic Perturbation Challenges: dBdt, delta-B, Regional K Magnetic perturbations at geosynch. orbit Magnetopause Location Neutral density and orbit determination at LEO Regional & global TEC. Ionosphere scintillations Ionospheric disturbances (NMF2, HMF2, foF2) Auroral boundaries Radiation environment. Surface & internal charging Post-event analysis Challenge. Extreme/unusual space weather Challenges.

16 National Agencies’ View of CCMC
Cost Effectiveness: Model delivery to the CCMC are usually included into proposals (modelers usually partner with CCMC well before scheduled deliveries). CCMC Sponsor’s Guidelines

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