1. Drought Activities at the NOAA/NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch
Richard R. Heim Jr.
Jay H. Lawrimore
NOAA/NESDIS/National Climatic Data Center
Asheville, North Carolina
USDM Workshop
Portland, OR, October 2007

2. Overview Monthly State of the Climate drought reports
Drought Monitor Activities (USDM, NADM)
FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index
Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
NIDIS
International Drought Monitoring – Drought Early Warning System

3. State of the Climate Drought Reports
Monthly reports
Narrative & graphics
NOAA press release, plus: Global Analysis, Global Hazards & Significant Events, National Overview, Drought, Wildfire, Hurricane sections
Drought has U.S. focus
Online by mid-month (12th to 15th)

4. CMB Drought Web Pages Drought Monitoring Tools
A static page that provides links to drought web resources from other organizations
Drought Termination in the U.S.
Based on Palmer Drought Index
Precip required to end/ameliorate drought & probabilities of it occurring
Weekly maps
Plot of indicators derived from CPC weekly data
Monthly Palmer Drought Index computed weekly

5. Drought Monitor (USDM/NADM) Activities
Author U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM) and North America Drought Monitor (NADM)
Host the NADM web site:
Compute the continental indicators for the NADM
U.S., Canadian, Mexican SPI, PCTPCP, & Palmer Drought Indices

6. Transitioning from Climate Divisions to Station Data for the U.S.
One of the action items from Oct 2006 NADM Workshop
For NADM drought indicator maps, have used stations for CN & MX & AK, climate divisions for contiguous U.S.
We are now also computing/plotting the North America indicator maps using stations for contiguous U.S.
Stations in U.S.
Climate divisions
in U.S.
Stations in U.S.

7. Precipitation Climatologies for N. America
Percent of annual precipitation maps
Monthly, 3-Month Seasons, 6-Month Seasons

8. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index
FMDI – a new drought index inspired by the Australian decile-based drought definition and the USDM
Based on precipitation percentiles
Computes:
Precipitation percentile for current month
Length (number of consecutive months) and begin year/month of current dry spell
Precipitation percentile for current N-month dry spell
Dx dry spell category (based on USDM categories) for current month
Length (number of consecutive months) and begin year/month of current wet spell
Precipitation percentile for current N-month wet spell
Wx wet spell category (based on analog to USDM categories)

9. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index
Dry Spell begins – when 3 consecutive months each have an anomaly <= 30th percentile and the anomaly of total precipitation for the 3 consecutive dry months falls beyond the cutoff (<= 30 percentile)
Dry Spell ends when:
the total precipitation for the months from beginning anchor year-month to current month no longer falls beyond the cutoff (<= 30th percentile), OR
the precipitation for the past 3 months is extremely wet (3-month total precipitation >= 70th percentile)

10. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index
Wet Spell begins – when 3 consecutive months each have an anomaly >= 70th percentile and the anomaly of total precipitation for the 3 consecutive dry months fall beyond the cutoff (>= 70 percentile)
Wet Spell ends when:
the total precipitation for the months from beginning anchor year-month to current month no longer falls beyond the cutoff (>= 70th percentile), OR
the precipitation for the past 3 months is extremely dry (3-month total precipitation <= 30th percentile)

11. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index
Has a Near-Real Time component and a Backstepping component
Requires serially complete data

12. FMDI can show
Wet Spell Conditions as
well as Dry Spell.

13. FMDI – Floating Month Drought Index

14. FMDI Correlations With Other Drought Indices
INDEX
ALL MONTHS
1/1931-5/2007
JUN 07
JUL 07
AUG 07
6/2007-8/2007
PMDI
0.711
0.757
0.719
0.759
0.743
PHDI
0.656
0.738
0.681
0.728
0.713
PDSI
0.686
0.733
0.683
0.712
Z Index
0.617
0.584
0.643
0.736
0.652
SPI – 1
0.554
0.561
0.513
0.649
0.566
SPI – 2
0.690
0.609
0.725
0.663
SPI – 3
0.781
0.756
0.795
0.776
SPI – 6
0.754
0.735
0.777
0.755
SPI – 9
0.657
0.676
SPI – 12
0.606
0.680
0.634
0.655
0.654
SPI – 24
0.460
0.525
0.434
0.538
0.499
USDM
0.430*
0.651
0.564
0.623
* 1/2003-5/2007

15. Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
The instrumental data record extends back only about 100 years
Paleoclimatic data can extend our drought historical perspective back several hundred to thousands of years
Based on station meteorological data
Based on tree ring chronologies

16. Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data Base
Station data network across U.S., Canada, & Mexico
Monthly Max & Min Temperature & Precipitation
Gridded monthly temp, precip, & PDSI
0.5 x 0.5 degree lat/lon grid
Computed for the instrumental period of the 20th Century

17. 0.5 x 0.5 degree latitude/longitude grid for monthly temperature, precipitation, drought indices ~ 11,400 gridpoints

18. Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data Base
Paleoclimatic (tree ring) data base across the U.S., Canada, & Mexico
Spans the period from the late 20th Century back several hundred years

19. Building the Living Blended Paleo Drought Data Base
Point-by-point regression method
Applied to the 20th Century period common to both data bases
To develop regression equations relating the tree ring chronologies to the instrumental period gridded PDSI
This allows reconstruction of gridded PDSI for the pre-20th Century period covered by the tree ring data

20. Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
Creating the “Blend”
The gridded reconstructed PDSI data from the paleo record can be “stitched to” or “blended with” the gridded PDSI computed from the instrumental data
The instrumental gridded PDSI will be updated operationally on a monthly basis
Thus, the paleo-instrumental gridded blend is a “living” drought data base

21. Living Blended Paleo Drought Monitoring
Monitoring Products – Gridded Data Base

22. NIDIS – National Integrated Drought Information System
NCDC / Climate Monitoring Branch:
Leading the NIDIS Drought Portal Conceptual and Social Design Team
Providing recommendations for and review of the Portal content
Providing programming support for the development of the Portal

23. International Drought Monitoring – Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)
Drought does not respect political boundaries
Water availability is emerging as a critical concern for the 21st Century
There are projections of potential increases in the frequency & intensity of drought due to climate change, coincident with population increases
An International Drought Early Warning System would enable the global community to give a coordinated response to the drought problem

24. International Drought Monitoring – Drought Early Warning System (DEWS)
November 30 GEO Ministerial Summit in Cape Town, South Africa
The Cape Town Summit is one of the early efforts to introduce the concept of a global drought early warning system to other countries
Video presentation, exhibit, and discussion planned to discuss the NADM, NIDIS, & how they fit into a Drought Early Warning System
Video will include NADM interviews with Canadian & Mexican partners
Tabletop book (“GEO – The Full Picture”) will be published in advance for Summit distribution – will include an NADM / DEWS chapter
Each Nation would need to evaluate their level of DEWS involvement – Ministerial support needed

25. International Drought Monitoring – DEWS
Objectives: An International Drought Information System that weaves together current and future observation systems from participating Nations to provide:
An early warning system for drought
Information for drought response, planning, mitigation, and recovery
An interactive, web-based drought portal and analysis tools
Provide critical drought information to countries with inadequate monitoring resources
Goals:
A system of systems for data & information sharing, communication, & capacity building to take on the growing worldwide threat of drought
Regular drought warning assessments issued as frequently as possible with increased frequency during a crisis

26. International Drought Monitoring – DEWS
Build upon the groundwork laid by GEO (Group on Earth Observations) and GEOSS (Global Earth Observation System of Systems)
Could be patterned after the North America Drought Monitor (NADM) and U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
A Drought Early Warning System requires a GEO commitment
Operational responsibilities
Research collaboration for developing new monitoring, analysis, and forecasting technologies
Many nations have important components of a drought early warning system. No one nation has all the tools, products, and data to deliver the best system.

27. Thank You! NCDC Climate Monitoring Branch Reports & Products:
NCDC State of the Climate Reports:
North America Drought Monitor:
U.S. Drought Monitor:
NIDIS: