1. Willie Clack Senior Lecturer School for Criminal Justice
The Statistical Myths and Reality of Violent Rural Crimes: International Conference on Rural Crime Royal Elephant Hotel; Centurion Pretoria. 27 September 2017
Willie Clack
Senior Lecturer
School for Criminal Justice
Title slide – option 2

2. Outline of Presentation
Objectives for the paper
Definitions and Analysis of definition
Statistics Available
The Start of the Fallacy
Determining of Denominator
Discussion of the Statistics

3. Introduction
Perception or Myths is a belief or opinion, often held by many people and based on how things seem:
SA is the crime capitol of the world
This statement is the staple food at dinner party's, braai’s informal discussions and even in pub’s
When attempting to indicate the contrary you will be regarded as either disrespectful of crime victims or as politically libidot (liberal idiot) (Altbeker, 2005)
“Ek is n boer, n wit boer, Ek het die gevaarlikste beroep in die wêreld” “I am a farmer, a white farmer, I have the most dangerous occupation in the world” (Adriana Struijt: 2003) and “Chillions” followed the rhetoric.

4. Objective of the paper
To deal with the MYTHS AND STATISTICS of violent crimes in Rural Areas
Science begin with myths, and the criticism of myths; Sciences does not start with the collection of observations, nor with the invention of experiments, Science begin with the critical discussion of myths, and of magical techniques and practices (Karl Popper 1957)

5. Dilemma of Statistics
There are three kinds of lies; lies, damn lies and statistics. Benjamin Disraeli, the 19th century British Prime Minister.
Morris argue that Statistics within Social Sciences only have either a political objective or to influence policy.

6. Morris, also mentions that not all politicians ALWAYS lie, it is just that there is no such thing as a completely neutral way to present either policies or numbers. Every press statement and every graph emphasises some aspects and down plays others

7. Inspiration for writing the paper
The St Georges experience
The collective trauma causes uncertainty, fury and fear. Every one is thinking who is next? (du Preez)
Fear “is created by your perspective of a situation, object or topic. When these perspectives become distorted the fear that drives them has the potential to take control over a person’s life”.

8. Rural Area Defined
Globally there is a predicament when attempting to define rural areas as Anderson mentioned in 1999 that the term ‘rural’ is a concept easily understood at a common-sense level, yet difficult if not impossible to define (Marshall and Johnson, 2005:7).
In The South African context the same predicament is mentioned by (Laldaparsad, 2013:1) as no standard definition of rural exist.

9. RURAL AREA ACCORDING TO RURAL SAFETY PLAN OF 2015
Rural areas are defined as “sparsely populated areas in which people farm or depend on natural resources, including villages and small towns that are dispersed through these areas. In addition, it includes large settlements in former homelands, created by apartheid removals, which depend for their survival on migratory labour and remittances” (Integrated Rural Development Framework1997: 1).

10. Definition Acts of Violence
Acts of violence against person/s on farms and smallholdings refer to acts aimed at person/s residing on, working on or visiting farms and smallholdings, whether with the intent to murder, rape, rob or inflict bodily harm. In addition, all acts of violence against the infrastructure and property in the rural community aimed at disrupting legal farming activities as a commercial concern, whether the motive/s are related to ideology, land disputes, land issues, revenge, grievances, racist concerns or intimidation are included.

11. Exclusions
Cases related to domestic violence or liquor abuse, or resulting from commonplace social interaction between people are excluded from the definition.

12. Analysis of the definition
farms and smallholdings
This is a double barrel and include two distinct types of properties
Definition Farm -An area of land and its buildings used for agricultural and livestock purposes, including cattle posts and rural villages where subsistence farming takes place.(NRSS 2015:13)
Definition of Smallholding - An agricultural holding that is smaller than a farm, excluding smallholdings where no agricultural activities take place and that is predominantly residential. (NRSS 2015:13)

13. person/s residing on, working on or visiting farms and smallholdings
A triple barrel is observed
Residing – one's permanent home in a particular place.
This included, farmers, people who rent houses on farms and smallholdings
working – this is specifically workers whom reside on farms
and visiting

14. Modus Operandi
intent to murder, rape, rob or inflict bodily harm – these are all contact crime according to SAPS Statistics.

15. all acts of violence against the infrastructure and property
The definition does not distinguish what is infrastructure or property
The definition of infrastructure is the basic facilities and installations that help a government or community run, including roads, schools, phone lines, sewage treatment plants and power generation.
Property Crimes according to SAPS Burglary Residential and Non-Residential, Theft of Motor Vehicle/Cycle, Theft out of Motor Vehicle & Stock Theft.

16. STATISTICS AVAILABLE
Kate Wilkenson (Africa Check) wrote extensively on the reliability of the stats
Murders on farms and small holdings
Transvaal Agricultural Union (TAU)
Maj-Genl Chris van Zyl
Alta Povey
Henry Geldenhuys
Not that the statistics are fail proof but, it is the best available
SAPS Stats of Murders

17. THE FOLLOWING IS NOT DESPUTED
Non of the Murders in the statistics is disputed it is acknowledge that they did occur.
The categories used by TAU is also utilised, farmer, wife, worker, visitor

18. Comparison National Murders with murders on Farms and Smallholdings
Correlation of 0.91 over the past 5 years

19. THE START OF THE FALLACY
Bezuidenhout (2012) made the following calculation on murder on farms.
88 murders in the year a financial year.
The denominator used is actives farms note that we work with people on farms and smallholdings
The finding is 220 murder per
that farmers run a significantly higher risk to be murdered compared to the general public (38/ and the police (58/ ).

20. VFPlus 2015 United Nations: if projected to specific categories it reflects 54 per for police officers and a staggering 133 per for farmers and farm workers;
8 August 2016 Dr Johan Burger (presentation Agrisa) farmers 125/

21. 14 March 2017 South Africa’s parliament, two different farm murder rates were shared.
“The farm murder rate is 133 per 100,000,” Freedom Front Plus member of parliament, Pieter Groenewald,
The African Christian Democratic Party’s Steve Swart cited a lower figure 97 per 100,000.
In none of the cases the denominator is known

22. There are literally 1000 of examples of the murder rate of farmers per – all of which does not indicate the denominator used.
The suspicion is that the number of active farms is used AND NOT the number of farmers etc.

23. Determining the denominator
The definition of a violent attack is clear….
PEOPLE RESIDING ON A FARM OR SMALLHOLDING – nowhere mention is made of farmers or smallholders or number of farms.
The short and the long is we need to determine the number of people staying on farms -

24. DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING THE DENOMINATOR
People residing on farms and smallholdings in South Africa are not simply farmers or smallholders – many people rent houses on farms and smallholdings and therefore they are residing.
Equally not all workers reside on farms

25. AN INDICATION OF THE COMPLEXITY OF PEOPLE FARMING AND PEOPLE RESIDING

26. Numerator and denominator
Number of farmers murdered
Number of smallholders murdered
Number of wife's murdered
Number of workers murdered
Number of visitors murders

27. THE KNOWN IN THE FALSE DENOMINATOR
Kirsten and Liebenberg in 2016 used the Census Statistics of 2007 and 2011 to determine the number of farmers and smallholders
Farming Category
Number of farming units
R5 million and more
2927
R3 to R5 million
2172
R to R3 million
12290
Less than R
22577
Total (Registered for VAT)
39 966
Total not registered for VAT
30 000
Total Commercial
69 996
Smallholder farmers
This reference is to farming units, not people
This is not an exact figure

28. When using the false denominator
The rule is then to use all the denominators and not only those serving your purpose.
Morris goes further and mentions that not all politicians ALWAYS lie, it is just that there is no such thing as a completely neutral way to present either policies or numbers. Every press statement and every graph emphasises some aspects and down plays others

29. Agri Census 2007 state that 83,2% of the active farming units in the commercial sector were owned and operated by individuals, followed by close corporations (5,7%) and private companies (5,4%).

30. Number of murders per 100 000 when wife's workers and visitors are removed (39966)

31. PER 100 000 if farmers registered and not registered for VAT is calculated (69966)

32. Number of murders per 100 000 all categories included (farmers, wife's, workers and visitors

33. Per 100 000 all variables included but wife's workers and visitors excluded

34. Comparison of General Population and murders on farms and smallholdings

35. Comparison between the provinces based on the number of Farming UNITS

36. Average number of murders per 100 000 farm UNITS

37. Gauteng: comparisons

38. Conclusion
To determine the murder ratio per at first you need the RIGHT numerator
The Denominator is imperative and ALL the variables sited in the definition must be calculated
Farming is the greatest career in the world – a passion to be close to nature and feed a nation
Spoiling myths with facts

39. THANK YOU