1. Early Warning Systems on Food and Agriculture
Presentation by Stéphane Jost,
Master in Human Development & Food Security
Università Roma June 2016

2. Early Warning Systems activities: Three main steps
1) Data collection
2) Data analysis
3) Dissemination of information

3. Meteorological
conditions
Cropped areas
cropping conditions
Transports and
storage
Pests,
diseases
Prices
Consumption
Governmental
agricultural policies
Trade, markets

4. national services (agrométéorology,
Main sources of information come from
national services (agrométéorology,
hydrology, plant protection, statistics, ...).

5. Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions
can also be organised

6. Three main components of FAO/WFP Crop and Food Supply Assessment Missions

7. Collected information is included in databases
a) Agroclimatic and agronomic data and statistics at national and sub-national levels

8. b) maps of boundaries, roads, rivers,...

9. c) Cropping zones. crop calendars

10. d) Satellite imagery: Cold Cloud Duration from METEOSAT

11. d) Satellite imagery: Vegetation coverage

12. d) Satellite imagery: creation of animated sequences
For example, evolution of monthly CCD images during growing season in West Africa :

13. Vegetation Index in the Sahel – September, reference year
d) Satellite imagery: Creation of difference images
Vegetation Index in the Sahel – September, reference year
Vegetation Index in the Sahel - September (mean)
Vegetation Index in the Sahel - September (diff. - mean)

14. SPOT-4 VEGETATION difference image
NDVI Difference image
NDVI
Difference
SPOT-4 VEGETATION difference image

15. d) Satellite imagery: Precipitation
d) Satellite imagery: Precipitation anomaly
Second dekad of May 2016

16. d) Satellite imagery: Vegetation coverage – NDVI anomaly
Second dekad of May 2016

17. 2) Tools for data Analysis
Main tools for analysis of the information
 a) Windisp (Windows Display)
 b) CCBS (Country Cereal Balance Sheets)
 c) National Food Prices Utility

18.  a) WinDisp For example : Cereal production in Burkina Faso
CCD dekadal
image
Crop zones for Sorghum
Maps of roads,
railways, cities,…

19.  a) WinDisp Other example of WinDisp display : (a) (b) (c) (d)
- Vegetation images
(a and b)
- Difference image
indicating drought
affected areas (c)
- And reference
provincial wheat
production map (d).
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)

20.  b) Country Cereal Balance Sheets (CCBS)

22.  c) National Food Prices database

24. 3) Dissemination of information

26. COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS in June 2016 (total: 3 countries)

27. COUNTRIES WITH UNFAVOURABLE PROSPECTS FOR CURRENT CROPS in June 2016 (total: 3 countries)
Country
Main Reasons
Changes from last report1
AFRICA ( 2 countries )
Central African Republic
The widespread conflict, which caused large-scale displacements, the loss and depletion of households’ productive assets and input shortages continues to weigh on 2016 production prospects -
Morocco
Drought conditions have acutely weakened 2016 production prospects, particularly of winter cereals
ASIA/NEAR EAST ( 1 country )
Timor-Leste
Cereal production prospects indicate a reduced 2016 crop, for the second consecutive year +   
  - : Deteriorating
+ : New entry

28. COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD in June 2016 (total: 37 countries)
  Shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
 Widespread lack of access
 Severe localized food insecurity

29. COUNTRIES REQUIRING EXTERNAL ASSISTANCE FOR FOOD in June 2016 (AFRICA : 28 countries )
Nature of Food Insecurity
Main Reasons
Changes from last report1
Exceptional shortfall in aggregate food production/supplies
Central African Republic
Conflict, displacements and constraints in available supplies The Internally Displaced Person (IDP) caseload declined from in January 2016 to in April, but it is still higher than in August 2015, when it was estimated at , before the resurgence of inter-communal violence. As of March 2016, 1.5 million people are estimated to be in need of urgent humanitarian assistance, 18 percent more than in April The significant tightening of food supplies has driven up prices.
Zimbabwe
Drought-affected 2016 production The El Nińo-induced drought resulted in a sharp decrease in the 2016 cereal production, which follows an already below-average 2015 output. The livestock sector has also been severely affected. The number people who require assistance is estimated at 2.8 million.
Widespread lack of access
Chad
Large caseload of refugees puts additional pressure on local food supplies Over refugees, IDPs, as well as the return of an estimated Chadians, continues to add pressure on local food supplies, negatively affecting food security. Over people are estimated to be in need of food assistance according to the last “Cadre Harmonisé” analysis (…)
-   No change   Deteriorating
^   Improving
+ New entry

30. Early Warning Systems on Food and Agriculture
Master in Human Development & Food Security
Università Roma 3
8 June 2016
Thank you for your attention