1. Fire Behavior and Climate Change
By: Mike Bagan

2. Fire Behavior and Climate Change
Increase in average global temperature by 1 degree Fahrenheit over the ast 100 years.
Climate models predict an increase of 2-7 degrees Celsius over the next 100 years.
“Wildfires have increased their activity a a result of several factors caused by increasing temperatures across the west.”
-Westerling and colleagues 2006
“Increases in temperature that have already been observed during the last century have had strong correlations to many factors that influence forest fire”
-Running 2006

3. Factors of Fire Behavior
Main factors that drive a wildfires behavior.
Fuels
-Fuels will dry faster and fuel beds will become larger due to dead trees and brush.
Topography
-Aspect such as south aspects will dry up faster, while areas such as north aspects can potentially become just as dry through opened canopies and higher temperatures.
Weather
-RH, wind, temperature, precipitation.

4. Effects of climate change on fire behavior
Fires will become more frequent in areas especially the west.
Fires will be “lost” by firefighters more often.
The average size of a fire will become larger faster.
The extent and duration of a fire.
The chances of spotting and crowing will become more frequent.
Fires are expected to become more erratic.
-due to a lower RH and higher temperutres.

5. How climate will effect the fuel loading.
Drought
-as temperatures rise drought will affect fire behavior.
Beetle kill
-With warmer winters happening MPB can now attack tree year round.
Shorter winters / less precipitation
-Tress and brush dry up earlier in the summer.
-Spring and fall will come later or earlier.
-Earlier melting of snowpack can lead to a longer drought summer.
Fuel beds can become larger.
As more trees die the forest floor fuel bed becomes larger and dryer with higher temperatures.

6. What does it mean for management?
Resources will be stretched thin
Fire season will become longer
-2-3 weeks longer.
New management and policies will need to be examined
Fire managers and firefighters could be in a whole new fire regime.
- If ecosystems were to be changed by the climate and fires.

7. What does this do for forest ecosystems?
Fire will become the primary agent of vegetation change.
-dry forests can be converted to grasslands, and tropical forests to dry woodlands.
Ecosystem could potentially change all together.
-no only from fire’s but climate change.

8. Fire’s and people; the risk
As fires become more frequent the chance of fires reaching residential areas becomes higher putting more people at risk.
The more people are moving out to rural areas in the mountains, the harder and more dangerous it will be for firefighters to find them and protect investments.
Politics
-Protecting on area over another.

9. Areas most likely effected
Areas where fire behavior is most greatly effected due to climate change:
-Northern Rockies
-Great Basin
-Southwest

10. Predictions Continuing at everyday CO2 emissions by 2070.
- All of west will be in potentially high fire danger.
-Fire season will be anywhere from 2-5 weeks longer in certain areas.
-Temperature but more importantly RH will be affected.
-Fires could potentially be devastating for:
* cities
*economies
*ecosystems as a whole
*human health.
-A new method of controlling and fighting wildfires.

11. Fire example