1. Homelessness Projections Rhagamcanion digartrefedd
Ending homelessness: what should we change next?
Rhoi diwedd ar ddigartrefedd: beth ddylai newid nesaf?

2. Homelessness projections
Commissioned Heriot Watt University to undertake research on current and future levels of homelessness across GB
Work in progress – presenting England results so far and repeating exercise for Wales and Scotland. Keen to get input on data sources
Answering three broad research questions:
What is current level of homelessness within different categories?
What is likely to happen to homelessness levels under existing policies and trends?
What measures would have the greatest impact in reducing homelessness, in the face of varying future conditions?
Under representation of certain groups and housing circumstances – we are able to measure people who go through the statutory system but it is very difficult to quantify people who fall outside of this system
Linked to the session this afternoon we need to have a baseline of how homelessness currently stands so we can measure progress against ending it – but this needs to capture those people who are not always captured through official sources

3. Core and wider homelessness
Definition of core homelessness:
Rough Sleeping
Sleeping in tents, cars, public transport
Squatting (unlicensed, insecure)
Unsuitable non-residential accommodation e.g. ‘beds in sheds’
Hostel residents
Users of night/winter shelters
DV victim in Refuge
Unsuitable temporary accommodation
‘Sofa Surfing’ – staying with others (not close family), on short term/insecure basis/wishing to leave, in crowded conditions (excl students)
Under representation of certain groups and housing circumstances – we are able to measure people who go through the statutory system but it is very difficult to quantify people who fall outside of this system

4. Core and wider homelessness
Definition of wider homelessness:
Staying with friends/relatives because unable to find own accommodation (longer term)
Eviction /under notice to quit (and unable to afford rent/deposit)
Asked to leave by parents/relatives
Intermediate accommodation and receiving support
In other temporary accommodation (e.g. conventional social housing, caravan, holiday let)
Discharge from prison/hospital without housing/resources
Under representation of certain groups and housing circumstances – we are able to measure people who go through the statutory system but it is very difficult to quantify people who fall outside of this system

5. Baseline England –core homelessness
Core homelessness stood at 144,000 households in 2015
It increased by nearly half since 2010
The largest elements were sofa-surfing, hostels and unsuitable TA
All elements except hostels were growing
Fastest growing element was unsuitable TA
About a third are families so population involved > 200,000
Most figures subject to uncertainty, but more likely to be under-estimated

6. Draft England projections –core homelessness
Types of homelessness
Core homelessness stood at 144,000 households in 2015
It increased by nearly half since 2010
The largest elements were sofa-surfing, hostels and unsuitable TA
All elements except hostels were growing
Fastest growing element was unsuitable TA
About a third are families so population involved > 200,000
Most figures subject to uncertainty, but more likely to be under-estimated
Regional patterns

7. Draft England projections –core homelessness
A work in progress but early results in England show:
The most important driver of homelessness in all its forms is poverty, which features strongly in all of the statistical models
The availability and affordability of different forms of potentially accessible housing, whether social rented lettings or suitable forms of TA, are important
The use of unsuitable forms of TA is a sensitive barometer of local pressure and is reflected in the different forms of homelessness including rough sleeping and sofa-surfing.
The extent to which a local authority employs the full range of prevention measures has a strong influence on homeless acceptances and thereby on the extent of use of TA, including its unsuitable forms
Homelessness monitor series shows policy decisions have driven homelessness patterns - likely to be reflected in Wales and Scotland results
Core homelessness stood at 144,000 households in 2015
It increased by nearly half since 2010
The largest elements were sofa-surfing, hostels and unsuitable TA
All elements except hostels were growing
Fastest growing element was unsuitable TA
About a third are families so population involved > 200,000
Most figures subject to uncertainty, but more likely to be under-estimated

8. Next steps
Developing results for Wales and Scotland – baseline data and simulating a model to show projected levels of homelessness
Main driver of the research is to support the plan to end homelessness and provide a baseline to measure progress over time
Opportunity to collect more data in Wales and upcoming homelessness monitor published in July adds to this evidence base
Keen to get input into the definitions, data sources and research – please feedback
National policy consultation starting in June – sign up on our website

9. Or please find me at the conference!
Or please find me at the conference!