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How representative are benchmark glaciers?

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Presentation on theme: "How representative are benchmark glaciers?"— Presentation transcript:

1 How representative are benchmark glaciers?
Andrew G. Fountain, Mathew Hoffman, Frank Granshaw, Portland State Univ Jon Riedel, National Park Service South Cascade Glacier South Cascade Glacier, WA USGS John Scurlock South Cascade has been used as the ‘benchmark’ glacier for the glacial reponse to climate change for all of the glaciers in the NWern US (Washington, Oregon)

2 Benchmark Glaciers of the US
Alaska Gulkana -- Alaska Range Wolverine -- Kenai Range Continental US South Cascade -- Cascade and Olympic ranges of Washington and Oregon Our report here on the region around South Cascade Glacier Meier, 1985

3 Chickamin Glacier Dome Peak John Scurlock

4 Methods Aerial Photos Historic Maps GIS Database Repeat Photography
Gridded Climate Data Glacier Inventory (24K) Lyell Glacier Located in National parks, previous existing data)

5 South Cascade Glacier Original IHD glacier Monitored since 1959
US Geological Survey Mass & Water Balance 4 Index Glaciers Monitored since 1992 Nat. Park Service Mass balance only 316 Remotely-sensed 1958, 1998 Area only Park Complex

6 What is a representative glacier?
Topographic characteristics? area slope elevation aspect Location? (any glacier will do) Similar climatic response? Pugh Glacier John Scurlock

7 Topographic Characteristics
Glacier Area Benchmark Glacier Index Glaciers 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1998 Area (km2) Fraction of glaciers smaller

8 Topographic Characteristics
Elevation, Area, Slope Benchmark Glacier Index Glaciers Remotely Sensed Glaciers 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 2 4 6 Area (km2) Mean Elevation (m) 20 40 60 80 Mean Slope (deg) The benchmark glacier is larger (already said), slightly lower in elevation (difference may not be important); and of lower slope by far. The lower slope was a quality in the selection process to beable to reach all parts of the glacier.

9 Area Changes Number of Glaciers and Area Change 10% 0% -10% -20% -30%
-40% -50% -60% -70% Fractional Area Change Number of Glaciers and Area Change Depending on your choice of glacier it may or may not represent area change of the population

10 Area Changes Uncertainty
Is the choice of glacier representative of change within its size class? Uncertainity is based on the uncertainty in the outlines of the 1958, 1998 glaciers, and is relatively larger for smaller glaciers.

11 From this cursory analysis, both topographic characteristics
area change suggest that the benchmark glacier is not representative of the region. And the other index glaciers may be better. Furthermore, the use of the benchmark glacier would over estimate the glacier change in this region. John Scurlock

12 Mass Balance Variations
) The benchmark glacier, responding to the same climatic forcing as the index glaciers, exhibits year to year variations in net balance very similar to the index glaciers and most likely to all the glaciers in the region.

13 Mass Balance Variations
Cummulative Mass Change ( m weq) As the cummulative mass change shows, however, small but consistent differences result in large cummulative differences over time.

14 Conclusions If the example from the North Cascades is typical,
probably most benchmark glaciers are not rep- resentative of the regional glaciers, due to the necessary selection criteria (IHD). - different topographic characteristics - different area/volume changes Year to year variations in net mass balance are well represented (probably by any glacier). But small differences between glaciers yield large cummulative differences. The issue is how to transfer mass balance variations from one glacier to another to more accurately depict variations across the region. First conclusion has important ramifications for using benchmark glaciers for estimating sea level.

15 Area Changes

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