1. THE RISE OF CHINA - Power, Institutions and the Western Order -
International Relations of East Asia
Song Mi Ran
Stefan Muhl

2. CONTENTS What is power transition
2. Example: British hegemony & power transition
ⅰ. Germany - Britain
ⅱ. USA – Britain
3. The institutionalization of hegemony
4. Example: The integration of Germany and Japan
What shapes the pathway of the Chinese power transition
Conclusion

3. WHAT IS POWER TRANSITION
the international order is a hierarchical political system
the hierarchical system maintains as long as the leading state remains powerful enough to enforce the rules of order
when rapid shifts in power occur the world order becomes instable for this period until a new hierarchical system will be established
What is power transition?
How can a power transition occur?
by peaceful transition
by war among great powers

4. IMPORTANT VARIABLES OF THE POWER TRANSITION

5. BRITISH HEGEMONY & POWER TRANSITION
Germany – Britain
USA - Britain
geopolitical proximity
both countries were heavily involved in the European rivalry
USA were “offshore” / away from other great powers
competition
strong competition in naval forces, colonies and allies
increasing economical competition
support of the status quo
Germany required more influence and significance
the United States supported the status quo international order
mutual interests
relatively strong economical interdependence between both countries
US were a huge market for British capital, both were interested in a balance of power at the European continent

6. THE INSTITUTIONALIZATION OF HEGEMONY
In the post-1945 era, the US built its hegemonic order around institutionalized relationships
→ made American power position less threatening to other states
This order is a wider, deeper, and more formidable order than ever before
→ hard for rising states including China to overturn this order

7. WHAT MAKES AMERICAN POWER MORE STABLE & LESS THREATENING
America’s
mature political
institutions
Open and
decentralized
political process
The web
of institutions
the UN, IMF,
World Bank,…

8. REINTEGRATION OF GERMANY & JAPAN
process of German integration
& reunification
in the context of western institutions
Peaceful
growth
of power
Japan
The United States - Japan alliance
& working in the western order
through OECD, G7 process,…

9. THE WESTERN ORDER AND POWER TRANSITION
The institutions in which the U.S. is positioned → reassure other states that American power will not be exercised in an arbitrary and indiscriminate way
Other democratic states rising up without security competition within the order
The Western order operation influences the strategies of other great powers situated outside the order ex) The Soviet Union

10. WHAT SHAPES THE PATHWAY OF THE CHINESE POWER TRANSITION
Economic interests
- world’s economic bodies,
the world’s economic governance bodies
2. Security interests
- “special relationship” with the U.S.
Its underlying
interests
some features which mitigate these dangers
- institutions, alliances,
nuclear weapons
Security
dilemmas
dynamics

11. WHAT SHAPES THE PATHWAY OF THE CHINESE POWER TRANSITION
The time at which China matches
the wider Western world
in terms of economic, military capacity
will not come soon
Power distribution
between
China & the West

12. CONCLUSION The Western order
– larger than a status quo great power (the U.S.), globalized, deeply institutionalized
→ easier to join and harder to overturn compared with past orders
Low possibility of overturning the existing order by China, considering China’s current (future) interests and the low probability of matching the western world immediately

13. DISCUSSION
Will a rising China accommodate to the order or overturn it?
Could we be sure that China would benefit from the existing Western order constantly? How long will it last?