1. Risk Identification HL-LHC Detector Upgrades Project
Planning Workshop, 26th – 30th Sept 2016, Fermilab
Lucas Taylor

2. Risk Management in a nutshell
Goal is to manage uncertainty, external events, and options (e.g. vendor/design choices)
Negative risks  threats
Positive risks  opportunities
Process: we follow the Fermilab standardized Risk Management Procedure ( link)
Analysis: characterize risks by probability and impact (technical, cost and schedule)
Control risks with mitigation and response plans
Contingency allocations to manage risk
Cost contingency for risk is ~10% project cost
Schedule contingency (float) is ~25% project duration
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

3. Goal today: Perform initial risk identification
Show you how to use the web risk register
Tools/Pages/Risk-Register.aspx
Brainstorm main risks – what keeps you awake at night?
Identify risks for each L3 area
Review Risk Breakdown Structure to ensure a broad range of risk areas has been considered
Tools/Lists/RBS/Risk Breakdown Structure.aspx
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

4. SPARE Fermilab risk procedure applied to LBNF/DUNE for CD-1
Lucas Taylor
Lucas Taylor -- Work Breakdown Structure
26-30 September 2016

5. Risk Management Process
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
ISO
ANSI
DOE
Fermilab
Develop risk responses
Fermilab has standardized Risk Management Procedure for Projects – this will constitutes the basis for the HL-LHC “Risk Management Plan”
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

6. Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve Develop risk responses
Risk Register
Fermilab-standard tool – risk DB with web interface
Multi-user, various views of data, filters, data export
Manages data, risk status, approvals, risk ownership
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

7. Analyze risks – Impacts and Probability
26 Risks that can impact FS-CF
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
1-, 2-, or 3-point estimates
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

8. Rank risks by probability and impacts
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

9. FS-CF risks — Probability vs. Cost Impact
(high rank schedule risk with large burn rate cost impact)
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

10. Risk mitigations and response plans
Risk mitigations – pre-emptive actions to reduce risk probability and/or impact
Mitigation activities are incorporated in the project plan along with associated costs and durations
Risk response plans – actions taken only if a risk occurs, to reduce the impacts
Not part of the baseline plan
Costs and delays covered by risk contingency
Plans are developed by SMEs and management and are summarized in the risk register
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

11. Risk Monitoring and Control
Risk owners monitor their risks and bring issues to the Project Management Board (PMB)
PMB serves as Risk Management Board
PMB and risk owners coordinate risk responses
In consultation with the PMG, IPT, FPD
Follow standard Project change control process
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

12. Risk Monitoring and Control
Risk owners monitor their risks and bring issues to the Project Management Board (PMB)
PMB serves as Risk Management Board
PMB and risk owners coordinate risk responses
In consultation with the PMG, IPT, FPD
Follow standard Project change control process
Risk is a continual, iterative process; recently
Retired two risks (NEPA approval, US-CERN neutrino protocol)
Added one new risk (rock falls on cryostat)
Revised cost impact analysis for escalation risks
Plan Risk Management
Iterate / Communicate / Review / Improve
Identify
risks
Analyze risks
Develop risk responses
Monitor and
Control risks
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

13. Risk Monte Carlo Modeling – Contingency Analysis
More Details
(documents)
Risk Register
(Web tool)
Full
Schedule
Summary Schedule
DocDB
Risk DB P6 DB
Risk Model
(Primavera Risk Analysis - PRA)
Cost and schedule drivers
Costs of risks and contingency
Completion dates and float
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

14. Risk Monte Carlo Modeling – Contingency Analysis
Placeholder risk events are inserted into schedule with zero cost and zero duration
(1) Throw dice – if risk happens, risk activity is assigned risk impacts (cost and duration)
Primavera Risk Analysis (PRA) framework
(2) Choose cost and schedule impacts from distributions
(3) Update entire schedule to generate one complete project outcome (scenario)
Repeat steps (1) – (3) 100,000 times and study the statistical behavior of many scenarios
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

15. Total cost of 26 risks that affect FS-CF
FS-CF risk cost contingency = 26.6 M$ (at 90% C.L.)
(not including burn rate)
26.6 M$
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

16. Total cost of 26 risks that affect FS-CF
High probability, low impact
Broad plateau from one dominant risk
CFFS-4850L-018 “CF-FS escalation rate greater than predicted” (P=50%, Impact = 0 – 25.5 M$)
Low probability, high impact – “black swan” risks
CFFS-4850L-001 Adverse conditions in FS underground excavations
CFFS-4840L-202 Oro Hondo shaft ventilation path is blocked
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

17. FS-CF cost risk drivers
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

18. FS-CF schedule risk – aggregation of 26 FS-CF risks
14.4 months
Milestone: FS-CF – Complete the excavation of four caverns
Baseline: 5 March 2021 – and before 18 May 2022, at 90% C.L
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

19. FS-CF schedule risk drivers
Remove each risk in turn, then run full MC with all other (N-1) risks to see how much FS-CF completion date is advanced
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

20. FS-CF burn rate
Burn rate is the fixed cost per unit time incurred due to delays
Standing army costs for Project Offices and management of: subproject, control accounts, CF design, CF construction (50%)
Escalation costs of delayed expenditures – 3% on remaining work: blend of labor (2.7%/yr), M&S (1.9%/yr), and CF (3.4%/yr)
FS-CF average burn rate = 6.5 M$ / year  document
Delay of FS-CF due to risk < 14.4 months (at 90% C.L.)
 Risk contingency due to burn rate = 7.8 M$ (at 90% C.L.)
(i.e months * 6.5 M$ / year)
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

21. Summary – the numbers Risk contingency (at 90 % C.L.) FS-CF only
CHARGE QUESTION 3
Summary – the numbers
Risk contingency
(at 90 % C.L.)
FS-CF
only
Entire
LBNF / DUNE
No. risks (High / Medium / Low) 26
127
Cost contingency from risks
26.6 M$
61.3 M$
Cost contingency from burn rate
7.8 M$
29.3 M$
Total risk cost contingency
34.4 M$
90.6 M$
Risk schedule contingency
14.4 months
17.6 months
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

22. Risk mitigation and response plans with clear ownership
CHARGE QUESTION 3
Summary
Project has established an effective risk management process following Fermilab, DOE and industry best practices
Robust identification and analysis of risks by internal and external experts, and covering a wide range of risk areas
Risk mitigation and response plans with clear ownership
Risk data managed in Fermilab-standard web Risk Register
MC used to model effects of risks on overall project (schedule) and determine cost and schedule contingency at 90% C.L.
Risks are being effectively managed to help ensure successful, timely delivery of FS-CF CD-3a scope
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management

23. Breakout talk: B01-01 “Risk Register and Management”
Thank you !
More information
Breakout talk: B01-01 “Risk Register and Management”
Risk Documents – from review website
Lucas Taylor | Risk Management