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Essential Personal Finance
Chapter 9 Make wise investments © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Contents Introduction Goals and timescale Risk and return
Asset classes Building a portfolio Investment strategies Tax and charges Financial advice Conclusions © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Introduction © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Goals and timescale Savings Investments
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Goals and timescale: real returns
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Risk and return Figure 9.1 Risk and return trade-off
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Risk and return: risk dimensions
Attitude towards risk (ATR) Capacity for loss Define Give examples © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Asset classes Fixed-interest Equities Cash Property
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Asset classes Types of product or security? Risk and return?
Liquidity? Cash © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Asset classes Fixed-interest Types of product or security?
Risk and return? Liquidity? © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Fixed-interest: yield and price
Figure 9.2 Inverse relationship between bond price and interest rates © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Asset classes Types of product or security? Risk and return?
Liquidity? Property © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Asset classes Types of product or security? Risk and return?
Liquidity? Equities © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Asset classes: risk-return spectrum
Expected Equities Total – including income. Compounding! Property Fixed-interest Cash © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Building a portfolio © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Building a portfolio Demand
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Markowitz diversification
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Markowitz diversification
Figure 9.4 Constructing a two-investment portfolio using Markowitz theory © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)
Figure 9.5 Constructing a portfolio using the Capital Asset Pricing Model © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Efficient Markets Hypothesis (EMH)
Weak Semi-strong Strong Define? Implications for portfolio building? © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Behavioural finance Herd behaviour Hot-hand fallacy
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Investment strategies
Rules of thumb Rebalancing Active vs passive Pound-cost averaging © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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100% - Age = Equities Rules of thumb Model portfolios
© 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Rebalancing © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Active vs passive Active Passive Aim Beat the market Track the market
Strategy Stock-picking Market timing Buy and hold whole market* Costs Higher Lower Products Actively managed investment funds Tracker funds Index funds * Or replicate this strategy through the use of derivatives (complex products whose performance is linked to that of underlying assets, such as equities) © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Pound-cost averaging Worst time to buy Average price paid
Best time to buy © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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May be via a ‘tax wrapper’
Tax and charges Tax Charges Tax relief or bonus on investment Tax-free build-up No tax when cash in May be via a ‘tax wrapper’ Ongoing charges: Annual management charge Fund administration costs Direct costs to fund, e.g. dealing charges Platform fees Advice fees © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Financial advice Invest more wisely? Consumer protection
Asset allocation and rebalancing Pattern of investing and withdrawing Behaviour gap Consumer protection Suitable advice Complaints and compensation systems if not © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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Conclusions Investors - behaviour gap: save too little and bad timing
Goals and timescale Short- to medium-term: savings Medium- to long-term: investments Risk and return Long-term: higher capital risk-higher returns but ‘safe’ savings increase inflation and shortfall risks But attitude towards risk and capacity for loss important too Asset classes - cash, fixed-interest, property, equities Portfolio building - diversification (Markowitz, CAPM, EMH) Investment strategies Active vs passive Rules of thumb, rebalancing, pound-cost averaging Tax and charges - reduce returns Financial advice - may close behaviour gap; consumer protection © 2017 Lien Luu, Jonquil Lowe, Jason Butler and Tony Byrne
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