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Optimizing Outcomes for Equitable, Efficient, Safe, and Green Mobility
Nancy Vandycke Walid Abdelwahab
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Transport commitments, by MDB
MAKING THE MOST OUT OF TRANSPORT INVESTMENT Transport commitments, by MDB (US$ billions, 2015) Source: Progress Report on the MDB Working Group on Sustainable Development (Jan 2017).
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TRANSPORT FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
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THE ROLE OF TRANSPORT FOR THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOALS
Source: SLOCAT
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TRANSPORT FOR A DIFFERENT FUTURE?
MORE EQUITABLE? MORE EFFICIENT? SAFER? GREENER?
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MOBILITY EFFICIENCY EQUITY SAFETY GREEN
OF GOODS AND PEOPLE A GLOBAL RESPONSIBILITY Increase efficiency of transport systems and services EFFICIENCY Ensure equity in access to opportunities EQUITY Improve “safety” of mobility (SDG target 3.6 on road safety) SAFETY Shift transport infrastructure and services to a “green”, clean and resilient path GREEN Trade-offs Between Objectives
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OUR ULTIMATE IMPACT Improved lives and livelihoods of billions of people across the world —including health, environment, quality of life, and climate change stabilized over the long term.
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OUR PROJECTS DO NOT AIM AT THE 4 OBJECTIVES
Percentage of FY17 World Bank Transport Projects whose Project Development Objective and Indicators align with the 4 objectives 100% * Transport Projects approved in FY17. Excludes Additional Financing. ** Percentages shown are for PDO Indicators Project Development Objectives PDO Indicator
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DESIGN AND MEASUREMENT FOCUSES ON OUTPUT
M&E provides insight about project execution and project outputs Most Common Project Development Indicators are Roads Improved, Number of Direct Beneficiaries, Travel Time However, these short term indicators lead to sustained long term outputs and impacts
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MOVING FROM OUTPUT TO OUTCOMES
- Kilometers of Roads Built - Jobs (direct) Construction - Beneficiaries Intermediate Outcomes - Job Opportunities Accesibile - Firm Investment - Mode choice - Trade - Travel Time - Labor Productivity - Prices - Land Use - Congestion - GHG Emissions - Crash Rates Final Outcomes/ Impact - Household income - Regional Integration - Preservation of Ecosystems - Health Costs - Women Economic Empowerment
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ieCONNECT FOR IMPACT: OPTIMIZING 4 OBJECTIVES
Equity Efficiency Road Safety Green Mobility - Women Economic Empowerment - Labor Market Outcomes: incomes, participation… - Productivity - Industrial or Agricultural Output - Regional Trade and Integration - Social Costs (e.g. due to air pollution) - Preservation of Ecosystems - GHG Emissions - Crash, Injury and Fatality Rates - Social Costs (economic and health related)
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Phase I of ieConnect for Impact program was launched in 2015:
SCALING UP IMPACT EVALUATION Phase I of ieConnect for Impact program was launched in 2015: Partnership: UK Department for International Development (DFID) World Bank Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) Team World Bank Transport and ICT Global Practice Goal: Transform the Growth Potential of Transport Investments Contribution: Initial Allocation of $2.15 million through i2i to Transport and ICT Strategic Priorities: Urban Mobility, Development Corridors, Road Safety
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WHAT IECONNECT FOR IMPACT HAS DONE SO FAR
Mauritania Nicaragua Rwanda Colombia Ethiopia Nigeria ICT Corridors Urban Safety Rural Roads Brazil Kenya Peru Tanzania
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Regional Distribution Thematic Distribution Expansion to other MDBs
LAUNCHING PHASE II 22 New Experiments with the following priorities: Regional Distribution Transport Focus Thematic Distribution Expansion to other MDBs 1. Co-financed programs 2. Non-WB co-funded IE 3. Additional MDBs involved at operational level 1. Africa (75%) 2. South and Southeast Asia (10%) 1. Transport Corridors (30%) 2. Urban Mobility (25%) 3. Road Safety (25%) 1. Low/lower middle income (100%) 2. Gender (30%) 3. Fragile and Conflict States (50%)
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WHAT WE EXPECT FROM YOU Use your project to think about contributing towards the 4 global objectives Stretch your mind for impact evaluation design and measurement Open your project to new ideas
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Thank You!
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ANNEX: WHAT IS IMPACT EVALUATION?
Impact Evaluation assesses the outcomes that can be attributed to a particular project, program, or policy. The central question: How would outcomes have changed if the project or policy had not been implemented?
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ANNEX: THE ieCONNECT FOR IMPACT INITIATIVE
Tests interventions (policies, regulations and infrastructure) in order to optimize outcomes for equitable, efficient, safe, and green mobility Uses non-experimental methods to assess the impact of infrastructure Uses experimental methods to test complementary interventions that may enhance the development benefits of transport projects
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ANNEX: WHAT ARE IMPACT EVALUATION METHODS?
Whenever possible, create or identify a control and a treatment group with same underlying characteristics The treatment group receives an intervention whereas the control group does not In these conditions, differences in outcomes between the treatment and control groups can be attributed to the intervention When treatment and control groups are systematically different, rely on statistical methods to help gauge actual outcomes
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