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Brexit and Trump – globalisation gets a bashing
Martin Hingley ITCandor IPEXPO 2017
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Sizing the global, UK and US ITC markets Globalisation v Localisation
Agenda Sizing the global, UK and US ITC markets Globalisation v Localisation The consequences IPEXPO 2017
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By Country/ Region By Offering
The global ITC market – year to the end of June 2017 – total: $6.1T, €5.6T, £4.8T Other hardware 21% Enterprise 23% PC 20% Mobile device 36% USA 29% Rest of Americas 8% UK 5% Rest of EU 20% Rest of EMA 4% Asia Pacific 34% Hardware 19% IT service 29% Software 15% Telecom service 37% Outsourcing/ managed serv. 28% Cloud 14% Maintenance 30% Implementation Other software 18% Infrastructure SaaS 9% Application 55% By Country/ Region By Offering IPEXPO 2017
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Global ITC sub-market spending ($USb) and growth - <Q217 v <Q216
$0 $800 $1,000 $1,200 Wireless Fixed line Implementation Application Software maintenance Hardware maintenance Internet Service Custom SaaS Software OS IaaS Processor Disk drive Database PaaS IPEXPO 2017 -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% 35% 45% Analytics
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Currency fluctuation Q2 2017 – local v $US
Strong $ Weak $ -13.2% -12.1% -8.4% -6.7% -5.9% -4.6% -3.7% -3.0% -2.0% -1.7% -1.5% -1.0% -0.7% -0.1% 0.0% -14% -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% Russia South Africa Brasil Taiwan Israel Guatemala India South Korea New Zealand Peru Chile Poland Australia El Salvador Pakistan Saudi Arabia Indonesia UAE Strong $ 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Jordan Hong Kong Venezuela Czech Republic Vietnam Switzerland Hungary Croatia Colombia Singapore Mexico Denmark European Union Dominican Republic Bulgaria Japan Norway Bangladesh Honduras Romania Canada Nicaragua Sri Lanka China Ukraine Costa Rica Thailand Philippines Sweden Malaysia Argentina UK Turkey Egypt 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.7% 2.8% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 3.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.5% 4.9% 5.0% 5.2% 5.6% 7.1% 7.2% 8.2% 10.4% 12.2% 23.5% 104.1% Weak $ IPEXPO 2017
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The growth of ITC spending in the USA ($) and UK (£) – 2015-2017
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% USA UK Trump elected Brexit vote Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 Q117 Q217 IPEXPO 2017
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ITC – nationalism v globalisation
Globalising trends IoT, edge computing and machine learning AI, cognitive computing, blockchain Amazon, Google, Facebook, Alibaba, Apple, Uber, etc. Cloud computing and centralisation Localising trends Trump’s election to president UK’s decision to leave the EU GDPR, data protection and sovereignty legislation IPEXPO 2017
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ITC OEM supplier revenues as a proportion of global sales by quarter – 2005-2017
5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 IPEXPO 2017
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Consequences The movement towards from global to national interests is cultural and economic – not just political We should think beyond the boundless possibilities of technology to how it can be best applied to this changing need Big ITC companies have revenues greater than many countries – governments should stop being influenced by them Automation will put almost everyone out of work – new luddites and greater nationalisation won’t stop it Suppliers – please at least modify your ‘big is beautiful’ marketing! IPEXPO 2017
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