1. Pestforecast
Surveillance and early warning systems for climate sensitive diseases in Vietnam
Hu Suk Lee (DVM, PhD)
23 September 2016

2. Outline Introduction of Pestforecast Progress update
Introduction of partners
Progress update
Preliminary outputs
Future plans

3. Pestforecast
Main objective: develop tools to forecast climate-sensitive diseases (CSDs) in Vietnam
To develop risk maps of CSDs
To evaluate the seasonal patterns of CSDs
To develop the prediction models for CSDs
Japanese encephalitis
- A vector-borne virus disease
- 3 billion people live in endemic areas
- Fatality rate reached 60% in humans
- Pigs are the main amplifying hosts
Leptospirosis
- A bacterial disease, outbreak is associated
with heavy rainfall
- Fatality rate from 5% to 30% in humans
- Rodents, pigs, horses, dogs and sheep/goats
are the common reservoirs.
Aflatoxin-associated diseases
- Toxin produced by Aspergillus spp.
- Fungi infect crops and animals via feed
- Responsible for around 1 in 4 human cases
of live cancer

4. Early Warning and Forecasting System concept
Met-Data
Model development:
Forecast, mapping
Notification
to farmers
Decision support tools
Public and Farmers
Climate sensitive diseases data
- Surveillance system
- Field survey
Responses
Vaccination
Harvesting
Selling …
Adapted from ICRAF (2014)

5. Introduction of partners

6. Introduction of Partners in Vietnam
National Institute of Veterinary Research (NIVR)
JE, leptospirosis and Aflatoxin M1 in swine
Collection of urine/sera samples
Collection of demographic information
Collection of perception / knowledge of CSDs
Plant Protection Research Institute (PPRI)
Aflatoxin B1 in maize
Collection of maize samples
Collection of perception / knowledge of aflatoxins

7. Introduction of partners in Vietnam
Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate change (IMHEN)
Climate data from 1960 to 2015 at provincial/station level
Precipitation, temperature, pressure and humidity etc..
National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE) and Hanoi School of Public Health (HSPH)
Human cases: 28 pathogens on a monthly at provincial level

8. f
Activity
Outputs/MS, achievements
Comments
Lit. review
Lit. review climate sensitive zoonotic diseases
-JE, leptospirosis and aflatoxin in Vietnam
Completed
Coordinating
a project in Vietnam
- CRA with NIVR and PPRI
- sampling, survey and lab analysis
- Project site visits (Son La, Son Tay and An Giang)
- Weather data (last 30 years, ~2015)
- 28 infectious diseases in humans (last 30 years, ~
2013): zoonotic, vector/water borne
diseases which are affected by climate factors
- Discussions with NIHE, MOH,HSPH and IMHEN
- Ethics approval
NIVR (completed)
PPRI (completed)
Publications
Presentations & Posters
- VE paper (Accepted to AJTMH) - today
- Shigella paper (submitted to IDP)
- Dengue paper (submitted to AJTMH) - Aflatoxin paper (preparing): Maize samples
- Malaria paper (preparing): spatial-temporal & seasonality
- 6 presentations
- 3 posters

9. Study design

10. Sampling areas (NIVR and PPRI)
Swine urine/sera samples from 5 provinces (excluding Dong Nai)
- NIVR (target samples: 1,925)
- 385 samples / province
- Slaughterhouses
- JE, Lepto(sera)&AFM1(urine)
- sampling information &
Questionnaires
Maize samples from 6 provinces
- PPRI (target samples: 2,310)
- Aflatoxin B1
Questionnaires (551 people)
Except for NIVR
Sample size (each province): 50% prevalence, 95% CI, precision 5%

13. Preliminary Outputs

14. Some early outputs
Systematic literature review of zoonotic diseases and aflatoxins in Vietnam

15. Every 3-4 years: incidence rates for Shigella

16. Every 4-5 years: incidence rates for Malaria

17. Annual incidence rates for lepto and VE in humans
*Previous study showed that 17~71% of VE were caused by JE in Vietnam

18. Seasonality of VE in humans between 2004 and 2013
(Dien Bien, Hoa Binh, Lai Chau and Son La)
4-5 times higher than Feb
*Previous study showed that 17~71% of VE were caused by JE in Vietnam

19. Future Plans
Sampling during the rainy season in Vietnam & activities in Laos
Building a website: update on the progress of Pestforecast (wiki)
Master student (VNUA): aflatoxin in Maize, supervised by Hu Suk, Hung and Prof. Thuy (Dean of VUNA): Son La province
Developing more manuscripts using Pestforecast data as well as secondary datasets
Pestforecast: JE and lepto (expected: 2 or 3 papers), Malaria (1-2 papers)
GIS works with Bernard (expected: 2 papers)
Dengue and Malaria
Aflatoxin with Johanna (expected: 1 or 2 papers)
CCAFS Flagship 2 Science Meeting, October, NY USA
Conference of research workers in animal diseases (CRWAD),
3-5 December, Chicago USA -> leptospirosis in swine

20. Thank you