1. Other people’s shoes
Harry Rutter | @harryrutter

2. Health benefits of active travel greatly outweigh the risks
Median benefit to risk ratio: 9:1
N. Mueller et al. / Preventive Medicine 76 (2015) 103–114

3. Source: The Lancet, Volume 378, Issue 9798, Pages 1202 - 1203, 1 October 2011

4. “What is the economic value of the health benefits from a given volume of walking or cycling within a defined population?”

5. Harry Rutter, Francesca Racioppi, Sonja Kahlmeier, Nick Cavill, Pekka Oja, Heini Sommer, Hywell Dinsdale, Charlie Foster, Paul Kelly, Thomas Götschi, Christian Schweizer, James Woodcock, Karim Abu-Omar, Lars Bo Andersen, Hugh Ross Anderson, Finn Berggren , Tegan Boehmer, Nils-Axel Braathen, Dushy Clarke, Andy Cope, Audrey de Nazelle, Mark Fenton, Jonas Finger, Francesco Forastiere, Richard Fordham, Eszter Füzeki, Frank George, Regine Gerike, Mark Hamer, Max Herry, Marie-Eve Heroux, Gerard Hoek, Luc Int Panis, Michal Krzyzanowski, I-Min Lee, Christoph Lieb, Brian Martin, Markus Maybach, Christoph Schreyer, Marie Murphy, Nanette Mutrie, Mark Nieuwenhuijsen, Laura Perez, Gabe Rousseau, David Rojas Rueda, Candace Rutt, Tom Schmid, Elin Sandberg, Mulugeta Yilma, Daniel Sauter, Peter Schantz, Peter Schnohr, Dave Stone, Jan Sørensen, Gregor Starc, Robert Thaler, Marko Tainio, Sylvia Titze, Wanda Wendel Vos, Paul Wilkinson 5

6. If all citizens in the EU aged cycled or walked an additional 15 minutes per day, 100,000 premature deaths could be prevented each year

7. Cycling 7 studies, 187,000 individuals and 2.1 million person-years
Mean age = 56
Mean follow-up = 14.2 years
Relative risk for all cause mortality:
0.90 (0.87 to 0.94) in groups who cycle
11.25 MET.hrs/week
(675 MET.minutes/week)
Risk of premature mortality reduced by 10%

8. The HEAT approach: key principles
Designed for transport and urban planners to integrate health in economic analyses
Minimal data required from users
Evidence-based and transparent
Based on conservative assumptions
Adaptable and modular

9. Worldwide use
Project website visited over 700,000 times by more than 41,000 visitors since 2011

10. Usage
England
Part of official toolbox for the assessment of transport projects (WebTAG)
Austria
Health effects of national cycling masterplan
Sweden
Used by the Swedish Transport Administration
USA
Evaluation of non-motorized transport projects
Recommendation for using HEAT in business cases in London
Plus: Barcelona, Boston, Brighton and Hove, Florence, Glasgow, Kuopio, Modena, Nantes, Pärnu, French Healthy Cities…

11. On the way… Air pollution CO2 Injuries Morbidity - under consideration
Requires background PM2.5 and location of walking/cycling
Assesses marginal difference relative to not travelling
CO2
Changes in CO2 emissions resulting from mode shift
Injuries
Morbidity - under consideration

12. Requires user input 12

30. Conclusions Huge health, social and environmental benefits
More cycling is safer cycling
Glass box, not black box
Easy to use tool
Focus on policy relevance
Step into other people’s shoes