1. Chris.kavalec@energy.state.ca.us / 916-654-5184
California Energy Demand (CED) 2011 Revised Electricity and Natural Gas Forecast
February 3, 2012
Chris Kavalec Demand Analysis Office Electricity Supply Analysis Division /

2. Changes from Preliminary Forecast
Economic/demographic projections updated (October 2011)
Econometric models re-estimated
Climate change formulation led to higher impacts on peak
Revised (lower) electric vehicle forecast
Incorporation of Television Standards

3. Statewide Electricity Consumption
Average annual growth of 1.56%, 1.10%, and 0.83% from in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.29% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009)
Lower starting point vs. CED 2009
Slightly lower in all three scenarios vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (0.73% lower in 2022 in mid case) because of Television Standards, lower electric vehicle forecast, and slightly lower income growth

4. Electricity Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

5. Electricity Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs
Electricity Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

6. Statewide Peak Demand
Average annual growth of 1.97%, 1.58%, and 1.05% from in the high, mid, and low scenarios, respectively, compared to 1.29% in the 2009 IEPR forecast (CED 2009)
Mid and high case growth higher than CED 2009 because of climate change impacts
Slightly lower in mid and low cases vs. preliminary 2011 forecast (0.39% lower in 2022 in mid case) because of lower starting point. Peak is higher in high demand case vs. preliminary because of higher climate change impacts

7. Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2009

8. Peak Demand: CED 2011 Revised vs. CED 2011 Preliminary (Mid Case)

9. Revised Forecast Efficiency Impacts
Programs, standards, and “price and other” effects
Includes impacts from Huffman and Television Standards
Higher by 2022 vs. preliminary forecast (7k GWh in mid case) because of television standards and inadvertent omission of 2005 residential building standards in preliminary
Efficiency savings inversely related to demand outcome

10. Revised Forecast Efficiency Impacts

11. Self-generation Distributed generation and CHP (demand side)
CHP held constant
Residential PV from predictive model, non-residential using historic trends
Self-gen higher than CED 2009 by 2020 mainly because of residential PV; slightly higher than preliminary forecast because of non-residential adjustment

12. Self-generation Peak Impacts

13. Electric Vehicles
Used high and low scenarios from Plug-in Electric Vehicle Collaborative
500,000 EVs on the road in 2020 in low case, 1 million in high case
Staff extrapolated to 2022, distributed to planning areas based on DMV data
Mid case is average of high and low
Lower forecast than CED 2009 (and preliminary) by 1,600 GWh in mid case (2022)

14. Electric Vehicle Consumption

15. Climate Change Impacts on Peak Demand

16. CED 2011 Revised vs. Pure Econometric Forecast
Econometric forecasts slightly higher: (consumption 1 percent higher and peak 2 percent higher in 2022 in mid case)
Differences come from aggregate vs. disaggregate approaches and accounting for efficiency
Goal is to explicitly account for efficiency in econometric models for better comparison

17. Consumption: CED 2011 Revised vs. Pure Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)

18. Peak: CED 2011 Revised vs. Pure Econometric Forecast (Mid Case)