1. Comparative Quality of Mortality Data Derived from Official Statistics, for both Historical and Contemporary Populations John Wilmoth, Danzhen You, and Bernardo Queiroz Department of Demography University of California, Berkeley
Presentation for the 1st HMD Symposium “Human Mortality over Age, Time, Sex, and Place” Rostock, Germany, June 2004

2. Objectives
To perform an initial evaluation and comparison of the quality of mortality data for a selected group of countries already included in the HMD
To compare the quality of data for a small group of “developing” countries, in part to determine whether some of them might be added in the future

3. Countries and Time Periods
Sweden
England & Wales
Japan
France
Taiwan
Mexico
Costa Rica
Chile

4. Two Aspects of Data Quality
Completeness of population coverage (in both census and death count data)
Accuracy of reported age (digit preference, age exaggeration)

5. Two Sorts of Methods for Evaluating Data Quality
Consistency among data sources
Plausibility of observed patterns

6. Assessing Completeness
Possibility of both under- and over-reporting
Standard methods assume age invariance
Measures of relative completeness

7. Standard Methods Growth Balance, Bennett-Horiuchi, etc.
Typically used for less developed countries where data are known to be less complete (compared to countries in the HMD)
Used to generate coverage estimates by country, sex, and intercensal time periods
Mortality estimation based on adjusted data

8. Age Invariance in Completeness of Population Coverage
Completeness of Census 1:
Completeness of Census 2:
Completeness of death registration:

9. Results Concerning Completeness of Population Coverage
Relative completeness of Census 1 compared to Census 2:
Relative completeness of death registration compared to Census 2:

10. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) Sweden, 1751-2000

11. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) England & Wales,

12. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) Japan, 1899-2000

13. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) France, 1901-1999

14. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) Taiwan, 1905-2000

15. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) Mexico, 1930-2000

16. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) Costa Rica, 1951-2000

17. Estimates of Relative Completeness Census (black) and Death Counts (color) Chile, 1952-2002

18. Types of Age Misreporting
Digit preference (or age heaping)
Systematic age exaggeration
Random errors

19. Indicators of Age Misreporting
Index of age heaping
Right-tail analysis
Trends in extreme ages (previous studies)
Matching studies (not considered here)

20. Digit Preference Census Counts England & Wales 1911, …, 1991

21. Digit Preference Death Counts England & Wales 1911, …, 1991

22. Ratio of Death Counts, Ages 70+ to 60+ Four countries, Males (blue) & Females (red)

23. Ratio of Death Counts, Ages 70+ to 60+ Four countries, Males (blue) & Females (red)

24. Ratio of Death Counts Ages 70+ to 60+ 4 countries, Males (blue) & Females (red)

25. Ratio of Death Counts Ages 90+ to 60+

26. General Conclusions
Need to develop better methods, especially with regard to migration
Need to extend evaluation to include more countries

27. Specific Conclusions Sweden England & Wales
Consistency of population and death counts even for earliest time periods (from 1751)
Some problems at older ages before 1860, but high quality afterwards (incl. extreme old age)
England & Wales
Decrease in census completeness during 19th C. (but much better during 20th C.)
High quality after 1911 (incl. extreme old age)

28. Specific Conclusions Japan France
Consistency of population and death counts for full 20th C. (except for gap due to WWII)
High quality at older ages after 1950 (but for extreme old age, not until 1970)
France
Consistency of population and death counts for full 20th C. (with some uncertainties due to wars)
High quality at older ages after 1946 (including extreme old age)

29. Specific Conclusions Taiwan Mexico
Consistency of population and death counts for full 20th C. (except for gap at mid-century)
No evidence of widespread age misreporting (but need to check further)
Mexico
Major problems of inconsistency between population and death counts (incl. recent decades)

30. Specific Conclusions Costa Rica Chile
Major problems of inconsistency between population and death counts (but with some improvement in recent decades)
No evidence of widespread age misreporting (but need to check further)
Chile
Major problems of inconsistency between population and death counts (except for 1990s)