1. Lecture 12. Global Trade Slowdown
Economics 1490
THE WORLD ECONOMY:
GROWTH OR STAGNATION?
with
Professor Dale W. Jorgenson
Lecture 12. Global Trade Slowdown
October 10, 2017
Harvard University Department of Economics
Fall 2017

2. THE WORLD ECONOMY:
GROWTH OR STAGNATION?
A. Comparing Economies
B. U.S. Crisis and Recovery
C. European Slowdown
D. Asian Economic Miracles
E. Sustainability of Economic Growth
F. World Economic Outlook

3. EUROPEAN SLOWDOWN
11. U.S. Growth Resurgence 
12. Global Trade Slowdown 
13. Europe 2020 and the Single Market 
14. European Policy Response: The Euro 
15. European Policy Response: Brexit

4. ASSIGNED AND SUPPLEMENTARY READING
David Dollar (2017), “Executive Summary,” in World Bank, Measuring and Analyzing the Impact of GVC’s on Economic Development, Washington, DC, World Bank, pp
Marcel P. Timmer, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, and Gaaitzen J. de Vries (2016), “An Anatomy of the Global Trade Slowdown, Based on the WIOD 2016 Release,” Research Memorandum 162, Groningen: Groningen Growth and Development Center, December, pp. 1-8 and
Supplementary:
World Trade Organization (2013), “Transformational Factors Shaping International Trade,” Ch. 2 in World Trade Organization, The Future of Trade: The Challenges of Convergence,” Geneva, World Trade Organization, April 24, pp

5. ACCOUNTING FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
Figure 15.2 An accounting framework for global value chains

6. PATTERNS OF WORLD TRADE
The Value Added Approach to Trade
Shifting Patterns of World Trade
Inward and Outward Foreign Direct Investment

7. SHARE OF SERVICES

8. WORLD FDI

9. WORLD MERCHANDISE EXPORTS

10. INWARD AND OUTWARD FDI

11. EUROPEAN COMPETITIVENESS
International Fragmentation of Production
Regional Shares of Global Manufacturing
Revealed Comparative Advantage of the EU27

12. COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE AND COMPETITIVENESS
Global Value Chains and Patterns of World Trade
Revealed Comparative Advantage
European Competitiveness and the Knowledge Economy

13. CHARACTERIZING GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
Pure Domestic Production
Traditional Trade Production
Simple Global Value Chains
Complex Global Value Chains

14. GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS WERE EXPANDING

15. GROWTH IN VALUE ADDED

16. FACTOR INCOME DISTRIBUTION
Labor and Capital Income Shares
Shares of High-Skilled, Medium-Skilled, and Low-Skilled Labor
Labor Compensation

17. FACTOR INCOME DISTRIBUTION, U.S.

18. FACTOR INCOME DISTRIBUTION, CHINA

19. TRADE IN GOODS VERSUS TRADE IN SERVICES
Gross Exports of Goods and Services
Value Added Exports of Goods and Services
Share of Services in Exports

20. SHARES OF GOODS VERSUS SERVICES

21. SHARES OF SERVICES IN EXPORTS

22. GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: SUMMARY
Characterizing Global Value Chains
Growth in Value Added
Factor Income Distribution
Trade in Goods Versus Services

23. GLOBAL TRADE SLOWDOWN Global Import Intensity of Production.
International Fragmentation of Production
Shift of Trade to Services

24. GLOBAL IMPORT INTENSITY OF PRODUCTION

25. INTERNATIONAL FRAGMENTATION OF PRODUCTION

26. CHANGE IN GLOBAL IMPORT INTENSITY

27. ACCOUNTING FOR IMPORT INTENSITY OF FINAL DEMAND
Changes in Import Intensity of Final Demand
International Fragmentation of Goods Production
International Fragmentation of Services Production
Global Import Intensity by Country

28. CHANGES IN IMPORT INTENSITY OF PRODUCTION

29. INTERNATIONAL FRAGMENTATION OF GOODS PRODUCTION

30. INTERNATIONAL FRAGMENTATION OF SERVICES PRODUCTION

31. GLOBAL IMPORT INTENSITY BY COUNTRY

32. GLOBAL TRADE SLOWDOWN: SUMMARY
Patterns of World Trade
Characterizing Global Value Chains
International Fragmentation of Production
Decline in Global Import Intensity