1. Presidential Approval Ratings and The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect
Public Opinion:
Presidential Approval Ratings and
The “Rally ‘Round the Flag” Effect

2. Presidential Approval
Today, presidential approval is gauged in very regular intervals
“Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president? “
In addition to this general assessment of presidential job performance, polling companies also ask a variety of more specific questions on the economy, foreign affairs, taxes, etc.

3. Presidential Approval
A President’s public approval ratings will give him leverage:
In Washington
Increases bargaining ability
Increases his ability to “go public”
Some believe that it increases his success rate on roll-call votes in Congress
Nationally
Can serve as an early barometer for upcoming elections

4. Determinants of Presidential Approval Rating
Best predictor:
Consumer expectations
What leads to deviations from this?
Honeymoon effects
Presidents enjoy higher levels of approval at the beginning of a term
Rally ‘round the flag effect
Presidents get a large bump in approval during times of national crisis

5. Rally Events What defines a “rally event”?
International event
Event directly involves the United States and particularly the president
Specific, dramatic, and sharply focused
Salient to the public
These events confront the nation as a whole
Gain enormous public event and attention

6. Why do people “rally around the flag”?
People will increase their support for the president (at least in the short-run) because he is the symbol of the country and the primary focus during times of crisis
People do not want to hurt nation’s chance at success by opposing the president

7. George H.W. Bush

8. George W. Bush