1. Does Scotland Want a Different Kind of Brexit?
Strathclyde University/ScotCen Social Research
Senior Fellow, ‘The UK in a Changing Europe’
whatukthinks.org/eu @whatukthinks
whatscotlandthnks.org @whatscotsthink

2. The Difference

3. Post Referendum Developments
June: Sturgeon puts IndyRef2 back on the table
Dec: SG proposes UK/Scotland stays in single market and retains freedom of movement
Jan: UKG proposes end to freedom of movement and leaving single market
Mar: FM proposes indyref2; PM says ‘not now’
Apr: UKG rejects differential Brexit for Scotland

4. Questions What Kind of Brexit does Scotland want?
Should Brexit lead to Indyref2?

5. Perceptions of Consequences of Brexit
Source: 2016 British Election Study Internet Panel Wave 9. ‘Identity threatened’ refers to impact of EU membership.

6. Previous Brexit Polling - 1
Source: Panelbase Jan 2017

7. Previous Brexit Polling - 2
Source: YouGov Mar 17

8. Britain on The Supposed Trade-Off

9. The Data
Respondents to ScotCen’s 2015 or 2016 Scottish Social Attitudes, an annual face to face random probability survey, who have agreed to do short follow-up surveys by internet/phone
Survey sent to 2,072 panellists; 859 successfully interviewed between 5 February and 2 March
Data weighted to reflect population profile and known differential drop-out
Recall EU referendum vote: Remain 66.5%
Recall Indyref vote: No 52%
Parallel GB-wide survey run at same time

10. Questioning Strategy
Do not assume voters understand concepts such as ‘free trade’, ‘single market’, ‘customs union’ or ‘freedom of movement’
Focus where possible on everyday practical consequences - customs checks, passport checks, mobile phone calls, etc.
Do not presume that voters accept the trade-offs, e.g. between free trade and limiting immigration, that may be imposed by negotiators

11. Soft Brexit Items
Allowing banks located in EU countries to provide services to people living in Britain while allowing British banks to provide services to people living in the EU
Allowing companies based in the EU to sell goods and services freely in Britain in return for allowing British companies to sell goods and services freely in the EU  
Requiring British-owned airlines to follow EU rules that require them to pay compensation to passengers who have been seriously delayed
Britain continuing to follow EU regulations which set minimum standards for the quality of the water at beaches where people swim
Britain continuing to participate in EU programmes for funding cross- national university research
Requiring British mobile phone companies to follow EU regulations that limit what they can charge customers for calls made abroad
Allowing boats from the EU to fish in British waters in return for allowing British boats to fish in EU waters

12. Mostly Popular

13. Immigration and Borders
Requiring people from the EU who want to come to live here to apply to do so in the same way as people from outside the EU 
Requiring people from Britain who want to live and work in a EU country to apply to do so in the same way as anybody else from outside the EU has to do. 
No longer allowing migrants from other EU countries to claim any welfare benefits in Britain
Reintroducing customs checks on people and goods coming to Britain from the EU

14. On Immigration and Borders

15. Other Hard Brexit Items
No longer requiring farmers in Britain to follow EU regulations on the use of pesticides
No longer allowing people from Britain who are visiting a EU country to get health treatment for free
Ending the ability of the EU to determine the minimum level of annual leave to which workers in Britain are entitled
Ending the ability of the EU to decide the maximum number of hours people in Britain can be expected to work

16. A Rather Softer Touch

17. The Possible Trade-Off - 1
It has been argued that when Britain leaves the EU, British firms will only be allowed to continue to sell goods and services freely to people in the EU if people from the EU are still free to come here to live and work. 
Do you think Britain should or should not allow people from the EU to freely come here to live and work in return for allowing British firms to sell goods and services freely in the EU. 
Definitely should allow people from the EU to come here to live and work
Probably should allow people from the EU to come here to live and work
Probably should not allow people from the EU to come here to live and work
Definitely should not allow people from the EU to come here to live and work

18. The Possible Trade-Off - 2

19. Leave and Remain on Soft Issues

20. Leave and Remain on Other Hard Matters

21. Leave and Remain on Immigration and Borders

22. Leave/Remain Split Similar To Rest of UK
Source: NatCen GB Mixed Model Panel Feb 2017

23. Does Scotland Want Something Different? – Soft Issues

24. Does Scotland Want Something Different? – Other Hard Issues

25. Does Scotland Want Something Different? – Immigration & Borders

26. Does Scotland Want Something Different? – The Trade-Off

27. Should Scotland Have Something Different? - 1
The rules on immigration from the EU should be the same in Scotland as they are in England and Wales
The rules on immigration from the EU should make it easier for someone from the EU to come to live in Scotland than in England and Wales 
The rules on immigration from the EU should make it harder for someone from the EU to come to live in Scotland than in England and Wales  
The rules on trade with the EU should be the same in Scotland as they are in England and Wales 
The rules on trade with the EU should make it easier for a EU company to do business in Scotland than in England and Wales 
The rules on trade with the EU should make it harder for a EU company to do business in Scotland than in England and Wales

28. Should Scotland Have Something Different? - 2

29. Should Scotland Accept Brexit At All? - 1
Which of these statements comes closest to your view?
Scotland is an integral part of the UK and so should accept the UK-wide vote to leave the EU  (47%)
Scotland is a nation and so should not have to leave the EU when a majority of Scots voted to stay (51%)

30. Should Scotland Accept Brexit At All by IndyRef and Euref Vote
% Scotland should not have to leave
EU Referendum Vote
Independence Referendum Vote
Remain
Leave
Yes 91 36 No 39 10

31. Support for Independence between Indyref and EURef
Source: whatscotlandthinks.org

32. How Brexit Cuts Across IndyRef
Source: 2015 British Election Study Internet Panel Waves 6 and 9

33. Scotland has become more Eurosceptic
Source: Scottish Social Attitudes

34. A Limited Pool of Potential Converts?
Source: YouGov

35. Movements in Both Directions
Source: YouGov, Aug-Dec. 2016

36. Support for Independence Since EURef

37. Thoughts on IndyRef2 Timing
Source: Kantar TMS

38. Different Elections

39. Then and Now?
Apr 17: Average of Polls by Panelbase, Survation and YouGov

40. Conclusion - 1 Clear support for free trade, even amongst Leave voters
Considerable support for consumer and environmental protection, though more doubtful about labour market regulation
Substantial support for immigration and border control, even amongst Remain voters
Only minority support for a different Brexit deal on trade and immigration for Scotland
The UK’s stance on Brexit is rather closer to that of most Scots than is the SG’s?

41. Conclusion - 2
The divergent Brexit outcome has not stimulated increased support for independence
One in three Yes voters backed Leave, while the commitment of many No voters to Remain is relatively weak
Opinion on having indyref2 mirrors that on independence (but Yes voters don’t agree on timing)
General election bound to be tougher for SNP than – but will not affect decisions about indyref2?