1. Simple Exponential Smoothing
Principles of Business Forecasting: Chapter 3

2. Pay more attention to the recent past
Use all the data
Pay more attention to the recent past
Objectives

3. Applications and Implementations
Excel
PowerBI
Tableau
EViews
R Forecast Library

4. Method or Model
Forecast Function: An equation for calculating the forecasts over the forecast horizon
Forecasting Method: A numerical procedure for generating a forecast. It involves the direct use of the forecast function. When such methods are not based upon an underlying statistical model, they are termed heuristic.
Statistical (forecasting) model: A statistical description of the data- generating process from which a forecasting method may be derived. Forecasts are made using a forecast function derived from the model. A statistical model is a necessary foundation for the construction of prediction intervals.

5. Forecast Horizon and Forecast Origin

6. Forecast Notation:
Horizon = 1 Origin = t

7. Forecast Notation:
Horizon = 1 Origin = 200

8. Forecast Notation:
Horizon = 1 Origin = 2017m08

9. Forecast Notation:
Horizon = 12 Origin = 2017m08

10. Mean Value Forecasts

11. Moving Average Forecasts

12. Simple Exponential Smoothing