1. Population and sustainable development
Francesco C. Billari
Università Bocconi
Director, Graduate Degree in Economic and Social Sciences (DES-LS)
in collaboration with Andrea Beltratti

2. Outline of the talk Sustainable development
Population: the country level
Population: the global level
Modeling population dynamics
Modeling enviromental impact and population

3. Sustainable development
“Our common future” (1987), a.k.a. Brundtland report:
"Sustainable development is development thatmeets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the ability of futuregenerations to meet their own needs."

4. Sustainable development
General idea, with population (present vs. future generations in mind)
Idea of sustainability can be applied at different scales (…, country-level, …, global level)

5. The country level: deforestation
In a given nation of region, deforestation can be linked to population growth
… future generations will have no forests ..
See e.g. Costarica (Rosero-Bixby and Palloni, Population & Environment)

6. The country level: deforestation

7. The country level: deforestation

8. The country level: sustainability and age structure
In a given nation of region, economic sustainability is also linked to the age structure of the population
Population ageing is the new challenge
Traditionally, age pyramids are used to describe the age structure of populations

9. The country level: sustainability and age structure
The age structure of a population at a given time t is the function of:
Fertility and mortality between about t-100 and t
Immigration and emigration between about t-100 and t
Moreover, the age structure of a population carries what is defined as ‘population momentum’: those who will be aged 40 in 20 years are already born…

10. An example of a ‘young’ population in the Mediterranean

11. An example of a ‘mature’ population

12. An example of a forecast ‘aged’ population