1. Frank Asche Roy Endré Dahl FAO FPI Workshop
Price Volatility Wild vs Aquaculture – aquaculture va wild and trade and reexports
Frank Asche Roy Endré Dahl
FAO FPI Workshop

2. Introduction Fishing is a risky venture
Price variability is a significant risk component
Few studies on fish-price volatility, relative to other agricultural commodities
Data availability
Single species volatility studies (e.g. Oglend and Sikveland, 2008; Oglend, 2013, Sollibakken, 2012; Buguk et. al. 2003)
Forecast studies (e.g. Guttormsen, 1999; Vukina and Anderson, 1994; Gu and Anderson, 1995).
Oglend, A. and Dahl R. E. «Fish Price Volatility» Forthcoming in Marine Resource Economics

3. Volatility for different groups

4. Volatility Across Technology
Regime Analysis Results
Mean Monthly Trade Quantity: Aquaculture > Wild
Mean Trade Variation: Wild > Aquaculture
Result is robust when trade quantity and trade variation is accounted for

5. Volatility Across Species
Mean Monthly Trade Quantity: Crustaceans > White Fish > Tuna > Pelagic > Salmonidae > Other Fish
Mean Trade Variation: Pelagic > Crustaceans > Salmonidae > Tuna > White Fish > Other Fish
Salmonidae has higher trade variation, so when trade variation is normalized volatility is lower

6. Volatility Across Species
Regime Analysis Results

7. Volatility Across Product Forms

8. Volatility Across Product Forms
Regime Analysis Results
Frozen can keep a more stable supply, has a lower c.v. of trade.

9. Volatility Across Product Forms
Regime Analysis Results
Frozen can keep a more stable supply, has a lower c.v. of trade.

10. Volatility rankings (lower is lower volatility)

11. Quantity produced in Norway

12. Real Norwegain production value(2012=1)

13. Real unit prices (2012=1)

14. Demand elastisity for cod at the export level
Conventional is price inelastic
Fit the old truth that the conventional share of the landings increase at high prices
Whole frozen is most elastic
Fresh filet is different
Demand elasticity
Dried salted
-0.69
Wet salted
-0.67
Dried
-0.85
Frozen whole
-2.42
Frozen filet
-1.26
Fresh filet
-1.85
Fresh whole
-0,77

15. Demand elastisity for cod at the export level
Conventional is price inelastic
Fit the old truth that the conventional share of the landings increase at high prices
Whole frozen is most elastic
Fresh filet is different
Demand elasticity
Dried salted
-0.69
Wet salted
-0.67
Dried
-0.85
Frozen whole
-2.42
Frozen filet
-1.26
Fresh filet
-1.85
Fresh whole
-0,77

16. Demand elastisity for cod at the export level
Conventional is price inelastic
Fit the old truth that the conventional share of the landings increase at high prices
Whole frozen is most elastic
Fresh filet is different
Demand elasticity
Dried salted
-0.69
Wet salted
-0.67
Dried
-0.85
Frozen whole
-2.42
Frozen filet
-1.26
Fresh filet
-1.85
Fresh whole
-0,77

17. Norwegian exports of cod by product form

18. Norwegian export shares of cod by product form

19. Real export value and quantity, why do not the value increase with quantity?

20. Wet salted cod: The price decrease so much with increased quantities that the value is reduced

21. Frozen whole: Quantity increase so much that the price reduction is compensated

22. Index for value development by product form

23. Index for value development by product form

24. South american fish production

26. Brazil

27. Columbia

28. Costa Rica

29. Honduras

30. Nicaragua

31. Peru witout industrials