2. Potential financial motivations for end-user programming
Christopher Scaffidi

3. An excerpt from the future
“End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. Studies have shown that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”

4. Where we might find such an excerpt
Websites motivating people to learn programming and/or encouraging businesses to invest in training staff
Introductory chapter of a textbook on end-user programming
Proposal to a state legislature or a university system, seeking education investment in new courses on end-user programming
Introduction to a grant proposal or a paper related to further research on end-user programming tools

5. The state of our excerpt today
“End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. Studies have shown that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”
Studies have shown people expect learning to program will enable them to communicate better with programmers and to obtain better jobs.

6. The contribution of this paper
“End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. One study showed that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”

7. Data set
Current Population Survey (CPS), US Bureau of Labor Statistics
CPS dataset for October 2003 was the last one that included:
Employment status (Boolean)
Weekly earnings ($)
Four-digit occupational category
Computer use (Boolean)
Spreadsheet/database use (Boolean) [SSDB]
Programming (Boolean) [EUP]
Survey responses included data for 8467 people who used computers at work

8. Analyses Descriptive statistics Statistical tests
How many people were using spreadsheets/databases, and/or programming?
What were their average wages?
Statistical tests
Earnings ~ Occupation + SSDB + EUP; Earnings ~ Occupation + EUP + SSDB
ANOVA: Earnings versus spreadsheets/databases and/or programming, while controlling for occupational code
Adjusted earnings ~ SSDB; Adjusted earnings ~ EUP
Kruskal-Wallis (non-parametric): After subtracting per-occupation averages to adjust for occupation, do earnings vary depending on whether workers use spreadsheets/databases, or (separately) whether they program?

9. Distribution of workers

10. Average earnings
34% 2%
51%
13%
Overall average: $823/week
N=8467

11. Average adjusted earnings
SSDB
Yes No
EUP
+$58
-$41
+$24
-$57
After subtracting the corresponding per-occupation average earnings from each worker’s earnings.
Overall gap of $115 between SSDB=EUP=true and SSDB=EUP=false (which is 14% of the overall average, $823)

12. Statistical tests: All highly significant
ANOVA tests
Earnings vs SSDB: F≥70.3, p< for each test
Earnings vs EUP: F≥7.2, p<0.01 for each test
Kruskal-Wallis tests
Adjusted earnings vs SSDB: 2=68.7, p<0.0001
Adjusted earnings vs EUP: 2=11.2, p<0.001

13. Contributions
SSDB and EUP essentially constituted a single three-level construct
98% of had SSDB=EUP=false, SSDB=true&EUP=false, or SSDB=EUP=true
People with SSDB=EUP=true earned $337 more per week than those with SSDB=EUP=false
Controlling for occupation, the difference was $115 per week
An increase of 14% relative to the overall average earnings of $823 per week among workers who used computer at work
Most of the increase was associated with SSDB; less with EUP

14. Ongoing and future work
Retest with other survey data
CPS data from other years
Non-CPS data, more recent than 2003
Retest with non-survey data
Such as job postings (which is what I initially tried, with unclear results)
Investigate causation
To what extent does the ability to use spreadsheets/databases and/or to program actually cause an increase in earnings? What are the mechanisms?

15. Other opportunities to make the benefits of end-user programming more precise…
To what extent do end-user programming skills…
Help prevent unemployment?
Lead to better jobs faster?
Higher pay, more meaningful work, higher job satisfaction…
Different benefits to people in different occupations…
Enable people to live more financially secure lives?
Enable businesses to innovate, compete, and/or profit?
Enable innovators to impact society?
1) Quantification is difficult.
2) No single statistic can capture all benefits of end-user programming.
But: These are not reasons to avoid making benefits of EUP more precise.

16. Many opportunities remain…
“End-user programming provides benefits to individuals and institutions. Studies have shown that compared to non-programmers in the same occupations, end-user programmers earned an average of 10% more than non-programmers, they experienced half the rate of unemployment risk, they found work 3 times faster when laid off, and they retired with 4.6 times as much savings. In addition, end-user programmers receive benefits related to efficiency, enjoyment, and respect. Other analyses showed business profitability was also positively correlated with the prevalence of end-user programmers among employees. Among engineering and science programs at universities, school ranking could be increased by introducing end-user programming into curricula. Finally, a historical review noted that, among the 100 inventors most mentioned in the American media from the 21st Century, at least 95 were programmers.”