1. Local Planning and BREXIT
Eddie Holmes
Senior Intelligence Analyst
Luton Borough Council

2. Overview Luton is a town with high levels of international migration
High projected population growth
Early investigation into the impact of BREXIT
Implications for council services
Implications for planned house building
Implications for labour market

3. Luton Background
Strong population growth – 2015 MYE 214,700, population at 2011 Census 203,600
74,300 households, with an average HH size of Average HH size was 2.59 in 2001
Evidence of very large households some up to 30 people
Younger than average population
Strong population growth in urban areas
Estimated need for 20,000 dwellings
High population density and limited space to build

4. Luton Background
High population turn-over, estimated 70% of population either not born or moved to Luton since 2001 Census
High BME Population, 55% BME at 2011 Census
Large South Asian population
High international migration –’super-diverse’ over 100 languages and dialects spoken
New East European population, over 10,000 at last Census, evidence this is not short term migration
Migration from Romania since change in law

5. Deprivation in Luton

6. Local Economy Formerly dominated by manufacturing
Service sector biggest share of economy but manufacturing still above national average
Growing airport and associated business large part of economy, estimated 10,000 jobs
Growing economy and high rate of business start ups
Skill shortage in town means that commuters into town have higher average earnings than residents

7. BREXIT Issues
Reduced access to EU market could hinder airport and associated business growth
Labour market shortages for local economy
If migration is reduced will this reduce pressure on schools?
Potential impact of loss of migrant workforce on services such as care homes
LBC investing in up-skilling local population
Loss of EU funded projects

8. Population Projection Scenarios
Current methodology uses 10 year average of migration and local mortality and fertility rates
Hard BREXIT assumes inward international migration is reduced and EU citizens are not granted right to stay in UK
Soft BREXIT scenario assumes inward international migration is reduced and EU citizens are granted right to stay in UK
‘Finger in air’ nature of assumptions but does give an indication of possible scenarios for planning

9. EU Citizens in Luton

10. NINO Registrations in Luton

11. Migration to Overseas
Hard BREXIT assumes no agreement for EU citizens to stay in the UK
Uses Census and schools data to estimate East European population with age breakdown
Movement out of UK over a period of 3 years
Younger age group than current migration schedule
No attempt to estimate UK citizens coming back to UK from EU countries – Potential for future research
Work very ‘experimental’ at the moment
Impact of ‘Hard BREXIT’ needs examining, implications for labour market, schools and house planning

12. Hard BREXIT Migration Schedule

13. Population Projection Comparison
Luton Population Projections Scenario Comparisons

14. Age Breakdown of Scenarios
Age Breakdown of Population Projection Scenarios

15. Summary Experimental nature of work
Research needed to attempt to gauge impact on labour market, older age groups and school age population for planning
Issues of labour market shortages
Uncertainty for house building
School place planning
Ratio of working age to retirement age issue
Research needed throughout the BREXIT process