1. High School Graduating Classes Through 2030
I would first like to acknowledge the support of the College Board, along with ACT, so that WICHE can produce these projections.
WICHE has been producing projections of high school graduates for almost 40 years. We update it every 4 to 5 years, based on data and demand.
The 8th edition was released in Today I will provide preview of the 9th edition which is forthcoming shortly in Dec I have provided notecards with information about how to sign up to receive notification when we release it. Because this is a pre-publication preview, I will mostly show just high-level information.
Peace Bransberger

2. Projections of High School Graduates
8th edition in This is a preview of the 9th edition (Dec. 2016)
Births through 2014 predict general trend of youth population through school year
Public and private school data (by race/ethnicity for Public schools)
Enrollments to
Graduates to
Delays in data availability
Economic and other environmental factors influence trends & precision
Youth categorized by race & ethnicity, roughly
First, few words about how we make the projections.
We use the most recent available data, that is feasible to obtain from several federal data sources. In this case, we used the number of births by state and race/ethnicity through 2014, to predict the general trend of youth population through school year We obtained public and private school data – by race/ethnicity for Publics only – from the U.S. Department of Education public data files. In this case, the most recent available enrollments data were for school years to The most recent high school graduates counts were for to
There are unfortunate delays in the availability of the data needed for these projections. I can answer questions after my slides, and we provide robust detail in the publication. What this means is that our projections begin in the past – with school year by and large.
The method for developing the projections is relatively simple. We use a cohort survival ratio method. Which means that we observe, mathematically, the ratio of the number of students who are in a grade one year compared to the number in the earlier grade the year prior. We use an average from the most recent five years, and give the greatest weight to the most recent year.
We do not explicitly model or quantify the various factors that influence how students progress through school, such as grade retention or early promotion, movement between schools, locales or states, economic or other environmental factors. They are implicit in the enrollment and graduate counts and progression ratios.

3. U.S. High School Graduates
Have Reached a Plateau
Public &
Nonpublic
Graduates
(Millions)
So, the first thing we can describe from the projections is the overall number and trend of high school graduates nationally.
After 15 years of steady increases—from 2.52 million in 1996 to 3.47 million in 2013 (the latest year that confirmed graduate counts are available)—it appears that the annual number of U.S. high school graduates will level out at around 3.4 to 3.5 million graduates.
This figure shows the long-term trend of high school graduates to 2013, in grey, are reported counts. Past that, in black, the projections through are shown.
WICHE’s projections indicate that the number of graduates per year, nationally, will average around 3.4 million through 2023, before peaking at 3.56 million prior to This peak, fueled by an increase in the number of non-White high school graduates, represents a 3 percent increase in the number of graduates over the previous high of 3.47 million graduates in 2013.
Beyond 2026 or so, the number of high school graduates will decline as fewer children born during the Great Recession and the subsequent recovery enter high school through the early 2030s. The number of high school graduates is projected to drop 8 percent after 2025, to 3.25 million.
And, as we release these projections, there is no indication of a sustained upward trend in births to suggest a sudden increase in high school graduates after that point.

4. U.S. High School Graduates
A Changing Profile
Private schools
White
Hispanic
The second thing we can describe from the projections is what I will call a “changing profile” for high school graduates. The only characteristic we are able to decribe from the available data is race/ethnicity. Having only race/ethnicity to describe the trends is less than ideal. These groupings can be helpful to some extent, in comparing with other data sources. And, the categories of students can provide some information, broadly speaking, about each student group’s average socioeconomic or academic position, relative to the other groupings. But, we cannot really know much about any individual just from their race/ethnicity. And there have been quite a lot of changes in how race/ethnicity is classified in recent years that complicates matters.
Overall, there are projected to be consistent declines in the number of White public high school graduates in the coming years. And, robust growth of graduates of color (or, technically, "non-White" public high school graduates). This figure illustrates the changing distribution of graduates between and , the last confirmed year, in the lighter shades. And then out to 2032, in the darker shades. By the primary racial and ethnic groupings, which are indicated by the colors here, throughout our charts.
Hispanics include any individuals with Hispanic origins, regardless of their race. And all race categories are non-Hispanic by definition.
Here one sees that barely a decade and a half ago around 2000, Whites represented 70 percent of all high school graduates. (That is, 69 percent of public high school graduates, plus approximately 76 percent of private high school graduates). White public high school students decrease to 52 percent of public school graduates by the end of the projections. With the share of White public high school graduates projected to hover around 52 percent in the last projected years, the racial/ethnic makeup of the nation's high school graduating classes is nearing the tipping point between majority and minority. Unforeseen increases in the number of non-White high school graduates could tip the balance within the span of these projections.
Robust growth in the number of non-White public school graduates—Hispanics and Asian/Pacific Islanders in particular—will act as a counterbalance to the declining numbers of White graduates, even though they are starting from a substantially smaller numerical base compared to Whites, and therefore even this growth is not projected to mitigate the overall flattening trend driven by the decreases in the number of Whites.
Black
Asian/Pac. Isl.

5. A Changing Profile White HSGs in Decline
Projected Cumulative Change after School Year
(Public Schools)
Let’s look at the graduate trends by major race/ethnicity categories. These charts will show the starting number in school year , and the cumulative number more, or fewer graduates, at two future points – around 2025, and at the end of the projections.
Shown here is the long-predicted decline in the number of White public high school graduates that began in 2007.
By around 2025, when the nation is projected to see some overall increase in the number of high school graduates, there will be about 110 thousand fewer White public high school graduates than there were in 2013.
By 2030 the number of White public school graduates is projected to decrease by 17 percent compared to where it starts here in
The pace of the decline in the number of White public high school graduates is projected to further accelerate after By 2031, the number of White public high school graduates is projected to be 1.6 million, which is about 267 thousand fewer than in 2013.

6. Hispanics Are the Primary Growth Engine
A Changing Profile
Hispanics Are the Primary Growth Engine
Projected Cumulative Change after School Year
(Public Schools)
This shows Hispanic high school graduates, the primary growth engine, numerically speaking. The number of Hispanic high school graduates is projected to increase by 50 percent or more from the first projected year shown here, to the high point of almost 920 thousand graduates around 2025.
This is an increase of almost 280 thousand graduates in the 12 years between 2013 and The number of Hispanic public high school graduates is then projected to decline back to around 785 thousand in the early 2030s, a 14 percent contraction over these five to seven years.
This decline is related to the decline in birth rates that occurred in recent years and was sharpest among Hispanics.
The number of Hispanic public graduates is not projected to reach 1 million in any of the projected years, but it is not inconceivable that they could reach this milestone in the 15-year span if higher numbers of Hispanic youth make it successfully through the pipeline to high school graduation.

7. Steady Increase of Asian/Pac. Is. HSGs
A Changing Profile
Steady Increase of Asian/Pac. Is. HSGs
Projected Cumulative Change after School Year
(Public Schools)
There is also steady increase projected for the number of Asian/Pacific Islander public high school graduates, shown here. About 40 thousand more Asian/Pacific Islander public high graduates are expected by the early 2030s compared with 2013, increasing from 185 thousand to 240 thousand, represening an increase of up to 30 percent.
This represents a relatively smaller increase than the magnitude of growth projected for Hispanic public high school graduates. By the end of the projections, however, Asian/Pacific Islander public high school graduates are the only student population projected to continue to gain, while all other populations are expected to begin declining after the high point around 2025.
We were not able to produce separate projections for the Hawaiian/Pacific Islander portion of the Asian/Pacific Islander combined total. But, the available data indicate this separate population is about 7 percent of the combined total, for the nation and most states.

8. Black HSGs Decline Slightly
A Changing Profile
Black HSGs Decline Slightly
Projected Cumulative Change after School Year
(Public Schools)
The number of Black public high school graduates recently reached a high of around 480 thousand in 2010 through 2012, just before the starting year shown here. But between now and the early 2030s, the number of Black, non-Hispanic public high school graduates is projected to gradually decline by about six percent.
Their numbers will vary between 467 thousand and 440 thousand over the next 15 years.
Black graduates are projected to remain about 15 percent of the total number of public high school graduates through 2016, then decline to about 14 percent of the total and remain at that level throughout the remaining years projected.
There are two additional student populations I have not separately charted for this presentation.
American Indian/Alaska Native public high school graduates represent about 1 percent of the total number of public high school graduates currently, or about 32 thousand graduates annually in recent years. Their numbers are projected to decline in every year of the projections, to about 23 thousand by the early 2030s.
It was not possible to produce reliable projections from the available data for public high school graduates of two or more races. The available data indicate that students of two or more races represented 1 to 3 percent of all non-Hispanic public high school students in the years between and This represents almost 52,000 graduates in , which increased 27 percent over three years to 66,000 graduates in It may take several years for these numbers to stabilize enough to allow projections to be computed.

9. Private Schools Losing Share
A Changing Profile
Private Schools Losing Share
Actuals ( to ) Projections ( to )
The number of high school graduates from private religious and nonsectarian schools is projected to decline at an even greater rate than the overall trend --- from 302 thousand in the last year for which confirmed graduate counts are available for nonpublic schools, shown here where the grey line ends. To about 220 thousand by the early 2030s—a decrease of 80 thousand graduates, or 26 percent.
Graduates from private schools will represent a gradually smaller share of the total by the end of the projection period, from 10 percent of all graduates nationally in 2000 to 9 percent in 2010 to 7 percent by the early 2030s.
We do not have race/ethnicity for Private school graduates. But other recent data show that about 76 percent of Private school graduates, nationally, are White.

10. Regional Variation
Switching gears now, from the national projections to the regions.
The national projections mask significant variations among the nation’s four geographic regions.

11. Regional Variation
As this displays, there are two overriding patterns throughout the years projected: growth in the number of high school graduates in the South and West, shown here in Orange and Tan with their new high points.
And, continuing declines in the number of high school graduates in the Midwest and Northeast, shown here in Green and Blue, with the high points from around , which are not projected to be surpassed again.

12. Growth Regions White Hispanic Black Asian/Pac. Isl. Private SOUTH WEST
These charts show the relative distribution of high school graduates by race/ethnicity over the projected years after , to And the trends of increase or decrease by race/ethnicity.
The South is the engine of growth for high school graduates. It is the only region that is projected to experience an increase in the number of high school graduates over 2012 numbers, for every year of the projections.
The South’s share of the nation’s graduates was 43 percent in the last confirmed year, Around 2025, it is projected that states in the South will generate almost 47 percent of the nation’s high school graduates, about 1.35 million. which is about 10 percent more graduates in the South than in After this high point, the South is projected to produce about 45 percent of the nation’s high school graduates through the end of the projection period—an average of 1.25 million high school graduates per year.
The West’s share of the nation’s graduates is projected to be about 30 percent of the total throughout the projection period. The West is projected to reach its new high point in with about 860 thousand high school graduates. It will remain the second-highest-producing region behind the South during the course of these projections, although it is expected to drop back slightly to about 784 thousand graduates by the early 2030s.
These regions follow the national trend in terms of which student populations generally lead to growth or decline.

13. Regions in Decline White Hispanic Black Asian/Pac. Isl. Private
MIDWEST
NORTHEAST
Private
The number of high school graduates in the Midwest and Northeast regions is, generally speaking, in decline. In school year , the Midwest generated 22 percent of the nation's high school graduates (about 762 thousand graduates). By the early 2030s, the Midwest is projected to have 93 thousand fewer high school graduates, a decline of 12 percentage points compared to
The trend is broadly the same for the Northeast, which produced around 639 thousand graduates in percent of the national total. By the early 2030s, the number of high school graduates in the Northeast is projected to decrease by about 72 thousand graduates, a decline of 11 percentage points compared to
Whereas there will be moderate increases of high school graduates in the South and West in the next 10 years before heading into the slump caused by the recent decline in birth rates, the decline in high school graduates in the Midwest and Northeast is projected to play out consistently year-over-year without pause.
These regions both have increases of non-White graduates, particularly Hispanic and Asian/Pacific Islander graduates. But, not in great enough numbers to offset the declines of White graduates.
(In the Midwest, several years of slight increases are projected between and , but this increase will not be enough for the region to reach its previous high number of high school graduates.)

14. Total High School Graduates (Thousands)
Top 10 States
Total High School Graduates (Thousands)
California
456
13%
431
12%
Florida
176 5%
193
Illinois
153 4%
143
Michigan
111 3% 98
New Jersey
109
103
New York
212 6%
215
North Carolina
101
110
Ohio
135
119
Pennsylvania
146
140
Texas
314 9%
375
11%
55%
54%
This table shows the 10 states that, combined, generate more than 50 percent of the nation’s graduates.
The number of graduates in the last confirmed year is shown, for , in thousands. And, then what is projected for Plus the percent of the nation’s total in each year.
They are listed here in alphabetical order.
I’ll let you glance at them for a moment.

15. America’s School-Age Youth
I am calling these last few slides “America’s School-Age Youth”. I will show two slides about projected trends in grade-level enrollments. And then I have three slides of data from other sources relating to the Implications we see for the nation, states and schools from these projections.
We produce enrolllments projections as part of the process. It is not so easy to summarize trends across all years and grades. I hope these give at least an idea.
The national enrollment trends mirror those described for the graduates, except that most of the changes occur nearer in the future than with high school graduates.

16. WICHE Enrollment Projections
The Pipeline
WICHE Enrollment Projections
This figure depicts enrollments by school level and race/ethnicity. Grades 1 to 5 are in the lighter shades, grades 6 to 8 in medium shades, and high school grades 9 to 12 in the darkest shades. We are able to project high school enrollments for more years into the future than earlier grades. So in this chart, we show only projected middle and high school enrollments in the later years, and the earlier grades as 'not available'.
The greatest declines are among White public school students, which are shown in the blue bars. By school year , White students are projected to be just 50 percent of public school enrollments overall, and projected to dip below 50 percent in the middle and high school grades by school year
One sees in the first two green bars, the substantial contribution of Hispanic students to public school enrollments overall between 2000 and 2010, an increase from 16 to 23 percent of all public school students, with increases at all levels. (This increase of 3.35 million Hispanic students over those 10 years is in comparison to the 2.10 million reduction in White students). The number of Hispanic middle and high school students is projected to continue increasing at a swift pace up through school year But, the previous rates of increase do not sustain at the elementary school level, in which the number of Hispanic elementary school students is projected to increase by only one percent through By school year , Hispanic students are projected to be 26 to 28 percent of public school students at each level.
The sheer number of Black public school students, shown here in the yellow bars, is relatively steady, compared to the other student populations. But, their numbers are projected decline by 3 to 7 percent at each level by Black public school students are projected to be between 16 and 17 percent of public school enrolllments at each level throughout the course of the projections.

17. WICHE Enrollment Projections
The Pipeline
WICHE Enrollment Projections
Asian/Pacific Islander public school students are the only student population that consistently adds enrollments throughout the projections, at all school levels. They are shown in the first set of tan of bars here. Even in the outer years when all other student populations are declining in number, there are increasing numbers of Asian/Pacific Islander students. Their numbers in the high school grades will increase past 1 million by
American Indian/Alaska Native students are roughly one percent of all public school students, at all levels. And their numbers are projected to decline by as much as 25 percent or more over the course of the projections. As we discuss in the publication, this appears to relate in some part to the recent changes in the race/ethnicity categories.
It was not possible to produce reliable projections for Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander public high school graduates. But, the data indicate that between and , Hawaiian/Pacific Islanders represented about 7 percent of the total combined number of Asian/Pacific Islander students at each school level — elementary, middle and high school. It was also not possible to produce reliable projections for Two or more races public school students. They were between 3 to 5 percent of all grades in the 4 years of available data, school years to with unusually high rates of growth that we did not want to extrapolate forward --- among other data complexities that limited our ability to produce reliable projections. It may take some years for the transition to the new reporting scheme to be fully implemented and enough stable data to accumulate, to produce reliable projections.
The last set of bars shows the trend for private school students. Private elementary and middle school enrollments declined by 22% and 13% between 2000 and Elementary grades are projected to decline another 9% by 2020, and middle school enrollments by 14% .

18. Education Capital in Families
Residing Parents’ Highest Level Educational Attainment
Education Capital in Families
United States
NCES 2015
Digest of Education
Statistics
From ACS data
Percent of Children Ages 5-17
That wraps up what I have from our projections. But Joe and Kent asked me to provide a few other data points, to add some context about the circumstances of families with school-age children. These data do not overlap seamlessly with the projections, but they give food for thought. But, remember the caveats about the nuances of race/ethnicity data as we look at these.
This chart displays the distribution of American children, ages 5 to 17, by what is the highest level of education of at least one of their parents. Each bar represents the children of a given race/ethnicity. The data are from the American Community Survey.
The labeled percentage is the percent of children who live with at least one parent with an Associate’s degree or higher, which are the lighter bar portions. The darker bar portions represent some college education or other lower level of attainment.
This indicates that 70 percent of children of Asian race live with a parent with a college degree, 61 percent of White children do, 35 percent of Black children do, and 25 percent of Hispanic children live with a parent with a college degree.
The estimated number of children by each race/ethnicity are shown below each bar, for quantitative perspective.
These data suggest that Hispanic and Black children are far less likely to have access to the educational capital that exists withing White and Asian families, broadly speaking, not to mention the economic resources that accrue to higher levels of education. On the flip side, 30 percent of Black children have parents with at least some college experience, and 21 percent of Hispanic children do. In addition to the percent of children of a parent with a college degree.
Child's race/ethnicity

19. Households With Children, U.S., 2010-2014
Families’ Finances
Households With Children, U.S.,
American Community Survey PUMS
Five-Year Estimates
Quintiles
Each bar portion represents the income range for 20% of households, except the top portion, which stops at 95%.
Medians
 Households with children
 All Households
This next chart probably follows closely from the educational attainment of American parents, by race/ethnicity.
We used American Community Survey PUMS data to produce these estimates of household income, for households with children aged 18 or younger. These data are grouped by the race/ethnicity of the responding householder, so there are likely some nuances for households that have adults of more than one race or ethnicity.
In each bar, each segment of varying height represents the income range for 20 percent of the households [with children, in the given race/ethnicity]. Each bar ends at 95 percent of households, because the highest incomes are quote-unquote off the charts, and basically theoretical in income estimates.
We also show the median income for households with children, the dash symbol. And the median of all households regardless of children, which is the diamond
and the more well-known figure for household income. These data indicate that a much higher percent of Black and Hispanic families have incomes lower than the overall median family income, not to mention White or Asian families. It also appears that, overall, households with children especially Asian and White-headed families, have higher median incomes than the overall median household income. Black and Hispanic families do not appear to have that same advantage.
[INSERT DATA TABLE]
There are also corroborating data about the differences in accumulated financial assets by households’ race/ethnicity.