1. Emerging Diseases in a changing European eNvironment Jean-François Guégan on behalf of the Steering Committee
EDEN
The Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases, December 14-15, 2009,
French Embassy, Washington D.C.

2. EC IP EDEN’ Call text
The aim is to identify, evaluate and catalogue European ecosystems and environmental conditions linked to global change, which can influence the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics of pathogenic agents and their hosts
A coordinated European approach is needed to provide predictive emergence and spread models including global and regional prevention, early warning, surveillance, and monitoring tools and scenarios
Coordination with international organizations and third world countries is essential

3. EDEN integrated project
24 countries,
49 partners,
80 scientific teams,
120 field sites,
60 PhD students,
200 research years
12.8 millions euros

4. EDEN integrated project49 24
Vertical Disease Sub-Projects
Tick
Borne
Rodent Borne
Leishmania
West Nile
Africa WNV-RVF
Malaria
Horizontal Integration Teams
- grouped under WP6 -
Data Management & Information Systems (WP6.1)
Low Resolution Remote Sensing &
Spatial Modelling (WP6.2)
High Resolution Remote Sensing &
Environmental Change Monitoring (WP6.2)
Mathematical Modelling &
Disease Establishment and Spread (WP6.3)
Biodiversity &
Impact on Disease Spread (WP6.3)
WP8 Training, Dissemination, Management & Coordination
Tools and Scenarios
- WP7 -
For each indicator disease, field studies are conducted to understand patterns and processes:
WP1 – Landscapes/biotopes
WP2 – Vectors
WP3 – Public health
WP4 – Animal hosts/reservoirs
WP5 – Integrated data analysis

5. EDEN major field sites 120+ field sites, 170+ publications,
3 websites:
EDEN
DMT (2-3K hits/month)
PhD (2-3K hits/day)

6. EDEN website www.eden-fp6project.net/

7. Impact of climate and other changes Tick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitis Coordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford
Ixodes demographic traits
Temperature
Metabolic rate
Mortality rate
Life cycle duration
Population size
Blood-feeding rate
Distribution and survival rates
Humidity: dehydration and survival
rates
Precipitation
Presence / absence
Size and duration of breeding sites
Tick-virus interaction
Virus replication
No replication below a temperature
threshold
Replication rates increase with
temperature
Reduced efficacy within vector
barriers
Infection of gut cells
Leaky" gut: viruses pass directly in haemocoel
Infection of salivary glands
Increased proportion of vector
population able to transmit

8. Impact of climate and other changes Tick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitis Coordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford
Changes in tick distribution in northern and central
Sweden. White dots: districts where ticks were found
Changes on vector and / or host
habitats
Shift caused by climate change:
ticks encountered at higher
altitudes and expanding habitat
northwards,. . .
Gray et al., Effects of climate change on ticks and tick-borne diseases in Europe. Interdisciplinary Perspectives
on Infectious Diseases, doi: /2009/593232

9. Impact of climate and other changes Tick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitis Coordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford
Annual TBE incidence per 100,000 population in each county
of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania,
Changes on vector and / or host
habitats
Shift caused by climate change:
ticks encountered at higher
altitudes and expanding habitat
northwards,. . .
. . . But also changes in land
cover and land use, possibly
caused by human activity.
Factors affecting contact and
disease transmission between
vector and humans
Socio-economic changes
Sumilo D, Asokliene L, Bormane A, Vasilenko V, Golovljova I and Randolph SE, PLoS ONE, doi: /journal.pone : e500.

10. Impact of climate and other changes Tick bioecology and tick-borne encephalitis Coordinator: Dr. S. Randolph, Oxford
Changes on vector and / or host
habitats
Shift caused by climate change:
ticks encountered at higher
altitudes and expanding habitat
northwards,. . .
. . . But also changes in land
cover and land use, possibly
caused by human activity.
Factors affecting contact and
disease transmission between
vector and humans
Socio-economic changes
Occupational / recreational activities

11. EDEN findings TBE (1/4)
From a Pan-European analysis it was concluded that observed patterns of climate change may be too similar within and between countries to provide the sole explanation for the extreme spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the marked upsurges in TBE incidence over the past two decades (Sumilo et al. 2007; Randolph, 2008).
A nexus of interacting factors affecting both the risk of infection and exposure of humans to that risk, and each differing in force in space and time, may provide a more powerful model.

12. EDEN findings TBE (2/4)
Extensive field studies and analyses conducted in an area of endemic TBE in northern Italy have confirmed the effect of a climatic indicator - the autumnal cooling rate – on TBE transmission to domestic goats (Rizzoli et al., 2007).
The underlying bio-ecological mechanism is complex, with an interaction between autumnal, cold-induced diapause in immature tick stages, and co-feeding of immature and adult ticks on vertebrate hosts at the beginning of the next activity period.
Substantial changes in vegetation structure (that improve habitat suitability for the main TBE reservoir hosts: small mammals), as well as an increase in roe deer abundance due to changes in land and wildlife management practices, are likely to be among the most crucial factors affecting the circulation potential of TBE virus and, consequently, the risk of TBE emergence in humans in Europe (Rizzoli et al., 2009).

13. EDEN findings TBE (3/4)
Conceptual model and empirical evidence of causes of spatio-temporal heterogeneity in TBE epidemiology in Central and Eastern Europe.
Sumilo D, Asokliene L, Bormane A, Vasilenko V, Golovljova I, Randolph S PloS ONE, 2: e500

14. EDEN findings in a nutshell
A key outcome of EDEN is that many of currently observed changes in disease occurrence are driven by complex multifactorial causes and can often not simply be linked to a single cause, e.g. climate change.
Socio-economic factors affecting behavior and contacts between hosts, vectors and pathogens often appear to be more important drivers of change than climatic factors.
This complexity should not be overlooked in disease risk studies and public health policy making.

15. EDEN International Conference
Thank you for your attention. . .
and welcome to the
International EDEN conference
on emerging, vector-borne
diseases in a changing
European environment
Montpellier May, 2010

16. Thanks to: Jacques Drucker, Agathe Dumas,
The Impacts of Climate Change on Infectious
Diseases, December 14-15, 2009,
French Embassy, Washington D.C.
Thanks to:
Jacques Drucker, Agathe Dumas,
Delphine Tessier, Marc Magaud and
the French Embassy’ staff for
inviting me to participe to this
workshop
IRD-CNRS-UM1-UM2, and EHESP
EDEN IP GOCE-CT
and European Community
… for funding support
Come to Montpellier
and visit us!